BURLEY, BRIAN J MR.
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H0CA48172- Internal id
2d9e7c9e-7f18-495b-97e1-5295ed469f2c- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-42. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 736,570 |
| People | Median age | 36 |
| Income | Median household income | $81,436 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $36,590 |
| Income | In poverty | 15.1% |
| Income | Unemployed | 6.8% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.454 |
| Race | White alone | 28.8% |
| Race | Black alone | 5.7% |
| Race | Asian alone | 7.7% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 66.0% |
| Race | Two or more races | 27.8% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 32.0% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 38.7% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 53.8% |
| Education | High school or higher | 47.7% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 26.0% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 8.8% |
| Household | Family households | 67.4% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.95 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 47.3% |
| Housing | Median home value | $773,000 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,805 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 43.9% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 11.3% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 14.2% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 5.0% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 2.4% |
| Health | With a disability | 10.9% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 92.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 6.0% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 68.4% |
| Commute | Public transit | 3.8% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 12.2% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $161,381 | $109,455 | $57,703 | $111,616 | $31,381 |
| 2024 | $61,946 | $56,450 | $5,777 | $71,158 | $32,241 |
| 2022 | $379,928 | $380,257 | $281 | $73,735 | $145,113 |
| 2020 | $86,124 | $85,514 | $610 | $54,132 | $64,342 |
Elections
- 2020 general house Β· CA-48 β lost_general
- 2020 general house Β· CA-42 β running
- 2022 general house Β· CA-47 β lost_general
- 2022 general house Β· CA-42 β running
- 2024 general house Β· CA-42 β running
- 2024 general house Β· CA-47 β lost_general
- 2026 general house Β· CA-42 β running
Committees
- BRIAN BURLEY FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-31 | WINRED | 24K | $-5 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (1)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-31 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | BRIAN BURLEY FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |