JUNGE, PAUL
R Β· house
Sign in to add to a watchlist β
- FEC candidate id
H0MI08141- Internal id
b385cb54-9c5d-484b-983b-518f9a1e8280- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MI-08. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 770,294 |
| People | Median age | 41 |
| Income | Median household income | $63,195 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $36,073 |
| Income | In poverty | 15.8% |
| Income | Unemployed | 6.8% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.461 |
| Race | White alone | 76.0% |
| Race | Black alone | 14.9% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.1% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 5.6% |
| Race | Two or more races | 6.3% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 2.6% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 96.1% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 1.6% |
| Education | High school or higher | 56.5% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 24.9% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 8.8% |
| Household | Family households | 62.1% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.35 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 34.1% |
| Housing | Median home value | $170,100 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $966 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 74.8% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 6.4% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.2% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 8.5% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 6.7% |
| Health | With a disability | 17.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 89.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 7.8% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 78.6% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.7% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 10.0% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $29,021 | $468,942 | $0 | $0 | $5 |
| 2024 | $5,984,459 | $5,636,818 | $439,922 | $6,176,050 | $703,023 |
| 2022 | $3,108,703 | $3,026,899 | $92,281 | $1,376,050 | $656,472 |
| 2020 | $2,112,467 | $2,101,990 | $10,477 | $669,500 | $1,088,160 |
Elections
- 2020 general house Β· MI-8 β running
- 2022 general house Β· MI-8 β running
- 2024 general house Β· MI-8 β lost_general
Committees
- JUNGE FOR MI-08 β principal Β· type H
- JUNGE FOR MI-08 2022 β principal Β· type H
- PAUL JUNGE FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
- PAUL JUNGE FOR CONGRESS-GTM NF MI08 β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $38,365 | $7,504,549 | 93 |
| 2022 | $11,689 | $3,721,618 | 84 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | HMP | oppose | $80,833 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $47,190 | Media Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $30,975 | Radio Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $8,078 | Media Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $6,000 | Digital Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $80,833 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $8,078 | Media Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $6,000 | Digital Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $24,658 | Direct Mail - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $43,333 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $102,827 | Television Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $6,000 | Digital Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $7,462 | Media Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $6,000 | Digital Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $37,446 | Media Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $43,333 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $63,333 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $6,000 | Digital Production-Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $102,476 | Television Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $43,333 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $43,333 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $6,000 | Digital Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $6,746 | Media Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $194,703 | Television Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $198,603 | Television Advertising - Estimate |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| β | HMP | 24A | $1,566 |
| β | HMP | 24A | $108,460 |
| β | MICHIGAN REPUBLICAN PARTY | 24E | $1,605 |
| 2025-12-31 | MIKE JOHNSON FOR LOUISIANA | 24K | $-2,000 |
| 2025-07-10 | COMER FOR CONGRESS | 24K | $-1,000 |
| 2025-05-27 | FIGHTIN' NINTH POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | 24K | $-2,000 |
| 2025-04-15 | ASSOCIATED BUILDERS AND CONTRACTORS, INC. POLIT⦠| 24K | $-2,500 |
| 2025-03-20 | HOUSE CONSERVATIVES FUND | 24K | $-2,500 |
| 2022-12-28 | WINRED | 24K | $0 |
| 2022-12-19 | CENTER FOR ESSENTIAL INFORMATION | 24A | $25,549 |
| 2022-12-16 | WINRED | 24K | $-3 |
| 2022-12-10 | WINRED | 24K | $0 |
| 2022-12-08 | WINRED | 24K | $-1 |
| 2022-12-05 | WINRED | 24K | $0 |
| 2022-11-27 | EVERY JOB IS ESSENTIAL PAC | 24E | $23,000 |
| 2022-11-26 | WINRED | 24K | $-1 |
| 2022-11-21 | EVERY JOB IS ESSENTIAL PAC | 24E | $1,500 |
| 2022-11-11 | DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC. | 24E | $2 |
| 2022-11-09 | WINRED | 24K | $-1,000 |
| 2022-11-08 | NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION | 24N | $1,888 |
| 2022-11-08 | WINRED | 24K | $0 |
| 2022-11-04 | WORKING FOR OHIO | 24K | $2,900 |
| 2022-11-03 | WINRED | 24K | $0 |
| 2022-11-03 | GARY PALMER FOR CONGRESS | 24K | $1,500 |
| 2022-11-03 | WINRED | 24K | $0 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (100)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | HMP | contributed_to | $1,566 | pas2 | |
| β | HMP | contributed_to | $108,460 | pas2 | |
| β | MICHIGAN REPUBLICAN PARTY | contributed_to | $1,605 | pas2 | |
| β | NRDC ACTION VOTES | opposes_independently | $50,250 | fec_ies | |
| β | NRDC ACTION VOTES | opposes_independently | $199,750 | fec_ies | |
| β | LCV VICTORY FUND | opposes_independently | $12,950 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $16,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $16,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $4,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $91,667 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $177,120 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $20,266 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $13,987 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $19,180 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $10,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $16,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $45,204 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $16,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $45,424 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $38,685 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $40,271 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $18,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $55,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $16,113 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $626,482 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $16,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $173,664 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $74,555 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $40,271 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $218,160 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $51,036 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $104,166 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $37,392 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $45,424 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $2,219 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $16,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $586,807 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $623,156 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $55,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $16,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $17,850 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $62,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $16,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $623,156 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $16,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $18,924 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $74,555 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $55,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $38,685 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $104,166 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $45,654 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $16,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $74,555 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $577,597 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $104,166 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $10,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $55,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $104,166 | fec_ies | |
| β | EDF ACTION VOTES | opposes_independently | $683 | fec_ies | |
| β | EDF ACTION VOTES | opposes_independently | $110,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | EDF ACTION VOTES | opposes_independently | $233,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | EDF ACTION VOTES | opposes_independently | $7,677 | fec_ies | |
| β | EDF ACTION VOTES | opposes_independently | $683 | fec_ies | |
| β | MICHIGAN REPUBLICAN PARTY | supports_independently | $1,606 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $6,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $24,658 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $63,333 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $6,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $80,833 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $6,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $43,333 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $102,476 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $43,333 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $102,827 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $43,333 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $6,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $37,446 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $7,462 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $6,746 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $6,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $194,703 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $43,333 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $108,460 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $80,833 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $30,975 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $79,580 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $9,327 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $24,658 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $80,833 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $32,725 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $1,626 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $1,567 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $7,849 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $198,603 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $80,833 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $47,190 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $30,975 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $8,078 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $8,078 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $6,000 | fec_ies |
Outbound (4)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | PAUL JUNGE FOR CONGRESS-GTM NF MI08 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | JUNGE FOR MI-08 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | JUNGE FOR MI-08 2022 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | PAUL JUNGE FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |