KISTNER, TYLER
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H0MN02134- Internal id
4bef2d82-683b-4c15-ad62-09acf604c713- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MN-02. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 730,253 |
| People | Median age | 38 |
| Income | Median household income | $108,849 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $51,623 |
| Income | In poverty | 5.5% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.6% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.413 |
| Race | White alone | 75.8% |
| Race | Black alone | 6.9% |
| Race | Asian alone | 5.5% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 8.1% |
| Race | Two or more races | 7.6% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 9.7% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 86.2% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 5.2% |
| Education | High school or higher | 63.8% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 43.5% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 14.1% |
| Household | Family households | 69.6% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.60 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 30.8% |
| Housing | Median home value | $386,000 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,521 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 63.8% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 1.8% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.0% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 3.1% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 5.7% |
| Health | With a disability | 10.1% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 94.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 3.7% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 68.5% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.9% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 20.4% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $745 | $6,194 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2022 | $3,409,855 | $3,338,988 | $104,878 | $0 | $2,834,807 |
| 2020 | $3,053,800 | $3,019,788 | $34,012 | $20,000 | $2,843,818 |
Elections
Committees
- KISTNER FOR MN-02 β principal Β· type H
- KISTNER FOR MN-02 β principal Β· type H
- SKOL PAC β principal Β· type N
- SKOL PAC β leadership Β· type N
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $136,167 | $8,176,629 | 159 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | HMP | oppose | $55,706 | Television Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $112,500 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $40,000 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $9,000 | Digital Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $999,075 | Television Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $2,397 | Media Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $2,798 | Media Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $7,437 | Media Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $12,500 | Digital Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $4,432 | Media Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $686,805 | Television Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $112,500 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $40,000 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $31,098 | Media Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $30,000 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $6,413 | Media Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $1,236,950 | Television Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $336,600 | Television Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $2,576 | Media Production - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $336,600 | Television Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $7,119 | Television Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $30,000 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $30,000 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $30,000 | Digital Advertising - Estimate |
| β | HMP | oppose | $37,005 | Direct Mail - Estimate |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| β | HMP | 24A | $7,436 |
| β | RIGHT NOW USA | 24E | $9,100 |
| β | LCV VICTORY FUND | 24A | $160 |
| β | HMP | 24A | $2,600 |
| β | RIGHT NOW USA | 24E | $13,500 |
| β | LCV VICTORY FUND | 24A | $12,933 |
| 2022-12-30 | HAGEMAN FOR WYOMING | 24K | $-1,000 |
| 2022-12-28 | WINRED | 24K | $0 |
| 2022-12-21 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-12-21 | WINRED | 24K | $0 |
| 2022-12-21 | WINRED | 24K | $-100 |
| 2022-12-21 | WINRED | 24K | $-3 |
| 2022-12-21 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-12-21 | WINRED | 24K | $-20 |
| 2022-12-21 | WINRED | 24K | $-3 |
| 2022-12-21 | WINRED | 24K | $-10 |
| 2022-12-21 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-12-19 | WINRED | 24K | $0 |
| 2022-12-16 | WINRED | 24K | $-3 |
| 2022-12-16 | WINRED | 24K | $0 |
| 2022-12-16 | WINRED | 24K | $-1 |
| 2022-12-16 | WINRED | 24K | $-2 |
| 2022-12-16 | WINRED | 24K | $-1 |
| 2022-12-16 | WINRED | 24K | $-2 |
| 2022-12-16 | WINRED | 24K | $-1 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (100)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | RIGHT NOW USA | contributed_to | $13,500 | pas2 | |
| β | RIGHT NOW USA | contributed_to | $9,100 | pas2 | |
| β | HMP | contributed_to | $7,436 | pas2 | |
| β | LCV VICTORY FUND | contributed_to | $160 | pas2 | |
| β | LCV VICTORY FUND | contributed_to | $12,933 | pas2 | |
| β | HMP | contributed_to | $2,600 | pas2 | |
| β | RIGHT NOW USA | supports_independently | $13,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | RIGHT NOW USA | supports_independently | $13,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | RIGHT NOW USA | supports_independently | $9,100 | fec_ies | |
| β | LCV VICTORY FUND | opposes_independently | $12,934 | fec_ies | |
| β | LCV VICTORY FUND | opposes_independently | $161 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $112,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $3,468 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $30,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $7,119 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $40,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $37,005 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $37,005 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $1,236,950 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $1,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $12,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $4,432 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $336,600 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $7,437 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $2,576 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $2,600 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $31,098 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $55,706 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $37,005 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $40,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $686,805 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $3,368 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $112,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $336,600 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $6,413 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $30,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $999,075 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $2,798 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $5,370 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $2,397 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $30,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $30,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $9,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | HMP | opposes_independently | $2,151 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-12-30 | HAGEMAN FOR WYOMING | contributed_to | $-1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-28 | WINRED | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-21 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-21 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-21 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-3 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-21 | WINRED | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-21 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-20 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-21 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-3 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-21 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-21 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-21 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-19 | WINRED | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-16 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-16 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-16 | WINRED | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-16 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-3 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-16 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-16 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-16 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-13 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-3 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-10 | WINRED | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-09 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-08 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-20 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-3 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-05 | WINRED | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-04 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-04 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-04 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-20 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-03 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-03 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-01 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-30 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-30 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-30 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-30 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-28 | WINRED | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-26 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-26 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-26 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-20 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-26 | WINRED | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-26 | WINRED | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-26 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-20 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-26 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-26 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-20 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-26 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-26 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-23 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-21 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-20 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-20 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-20 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-19 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-19 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-18 | LCV VICTORY FUND | contributed_to | $160 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-17 | WINRED | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-17 | WINRED | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-17 | WINRED | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 |
Outbound (4)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | leadership_committee_of | SKOL PAC | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | KISTNER FOR MN-02 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | SKOL PAC | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | KISTNER FOR MN-02 | β | candidate_committees |