KELLY, JOHN J
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H0NM01130- Internal id
6f607375-d4c4-440e-aa51-95dc79b245c8- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NM-01. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 711,799 |
| People | Median age | 41 |
| Income | Median household income | $71,236 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $42,996 |
| Income | In poverty | 13.5% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.3% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.468 |
| Race | White alone | 56.3% |
| Race | Black alone | 2.8% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.8% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 41.8% |
| Race | Two or more races | 23.7% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 8.1% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 78.9% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 15.9% |
| Education | High school or higher | 60.9% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 39.5% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 17.9% |
| Household | Family households | 56.9% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.28 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 35.0% |
| Housing | Median home value | $304,400 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,144 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 63.9% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 3.4% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.4% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 8.5% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 8.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 16.1% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 90.0% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 7.0% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 70.5% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.7% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 15.7% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $530,551 | $0 |
| 2006 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $530,551 | $0 |
| 2004 | $1,465 | $1,465 | $0 | $530,551 | $0 |
| 2002 | $38,679 | $50,090 | $0 | $529,084 | $200 |
| 2000 | $1,465,705 | $1,454,294 | $11,410 | $495,801 | $534,163 |
Elections
- 2000 general house Β· NM-1 β lost_general
Committees
- KELLY FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | KELLY FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |