DEVOLDER-SANTOS, GEORGE

R · house

FEC candidate id: H0NY03083
Internal id: b69230b5-4023-47b7-9780-7d039037b355
Status: incumbent

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NY-01. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	778,092
People	Median age	44
Income	Median household income	$134,242
Income	Per-capita income	$63,494
Income	In poverty	6.2%
Income	Unemployed	4.6%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.457
Race	White alone	74.1%
Race	Black alone	4.6%
Race	Asian alone	5.4%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	15.3%
Race	Two or more races	10.3%
Origin	Foreign-born	13.5%
Language	Speaks English only at home	81.0%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	9.6%
Education	High school or higher	69.2%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	46.5%
Education	Advanced degree	22.2%
Household	Family households	71.7%
Household	Avg household size	2.75
Household	Never married (15+)	31.7%
Housing	Median home value	$628,600
Housing	Median gross rent	$2,309
Housing	Single-family detached	82.0%
Housing	Built before 1940	3.6%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.6%
Housing	Vacant units	15.9%
Service	Veterans (18+)	4.4%
Health	With a disability	10.4%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	93.9%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	4.2%
Commute	Drove alone	71.5%
Commute	Public transit	4.6%
Commute	Worked from home	14.4%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$0	$0	$5,556	$811,092	$0
2024	$162,529	$191,882	$5,556	$803,157	$162,529
2022	$3,000,676	$3,094,046	$34,908	$755,000	$1,491,328
2020	$706,181	$638,537	$67,723	$50,000	$604,622

Elections

2020 general house · NY-3 — lost_general
2020 general house · NY-1 — running
2022 general house · NY-3 — lost_general
2022 general house · NY-1 — running
2024 general house · NY-1 — running

Committees

DEVOLDER SANTOS FOR CONGRESS RECOUNT — principal · type H
DEVOLDER-SANTOS FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
DEVOLDER-SANTOS FOR NY-03 — principal · type H
SANTOS FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 99.0%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
incumbent	+78.0%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$3,378	$1,925,458	19

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	HMP	oppose	$16,571	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$99,475	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$525	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$1,418,600	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$6,000	Digital Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$45,221	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$16,571	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$32,000	Digital Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$4,060	Digital Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$6,000	Digital Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$71,179	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$45,221	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$26,571	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$30,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$11,022	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$45,221	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$6,000	Digital Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$45,221	Digital Advertising - Estimate
2022-10-24	NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND	support	$3,378	IE-Devolder-Santos-Direct mail

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
—	HMP	24A	$6,000
2022-12-29	WINRED	24K	$-100
2022-12-29	WINRED	24K	$-10
2022-12-29	WINRED	24K	$-25
2022-12-29	WINRED	24K	$-25
2022-12-28	WINRED	24K	$-10,000
2022-12-27	WINRED	24K	$-175
2022-12-21	WINRED	24K	$-25
2022-12-15	WINRED	24K	$-25
2022-12-12	WINRED	24K	$-50
2022-12-10	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-12-09	WINRED	24K	$-9
2022-12-09	WINRED	24K	$-9
2022-12-09	WINRED	24K	$-25
2022-12-09	WINRED	24K	$-9
2022-12-07	WINRED	24K	$-25
2022-12-06	AT&T INC. EMPLOYEE FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION COM…	24K	$2,000
2022-12-06	WINRED	24K	$-25
2022-12-06	WINRED	24K	$-10
2022-12-05	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-12-02	WINRED	24K	$-5
2022-12-02	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTI…	24K	$5,000
2022-12-02	WINRED	24K	$-5
2022-11-29	CLF	24K	$5,000
2022-11-26	WINRED	24K	$-10

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	HMP	contributed_to	$6,000	pas2
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$45,221	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$45,221	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$16,571	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$16,571	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$6,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$6,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$71,179	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$1,418,600	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$99,475	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$45,221	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$525	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$26,571	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$11,022	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$45,221	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$6,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$4,060	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$30,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$32,000	fec_ies
2022-12-29	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-12-29	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100	pas2
2022-12-29	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-12-29	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-12-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10,000	pas2
2022-12-27	WINRED	contributed_to	$-175	pas2
2022-12-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-12-15	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-12-12	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50	pas2
2022-12-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-12-09	WINRED	contributed_to	$-9	pas2
2022-12-09	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-12-09	WINRED	contributed_to	$-9	pas2
2022-12-09	WINRED	contributed_to	$-9	pas2
2022-12-07	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-12-06	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-12-06	AT&T INC. EMPLOYEE FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (AT&T EMPLOYEE FEDERAL PAC)	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-12-06	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-12-05	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-12-02	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-12-02	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-12-02	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-11-29	CLF	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-11-26	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-23	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1	pas2
2022-11-22	REPUBLICAN JEWISH COALITION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (RJC-PAC)	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-11-22	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50	pas2
2022-11-20	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-17	CUT THE BULL PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-16	TRANSPORT WORKERS UNION OF AMERICA POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-11-15	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-11-14	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-11-08	HMP	contributed_to	$524	pas2
2022-11-07	HMP	contributed_to	$11,022	pas2
2022-11-07	JAKE ELLZEY FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-11-06	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-06	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-06	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-04	MEUSER FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-11-04	PATRIOT POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-11-03	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-11-03	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-11-03	HMP	contributed_to	$99,475	pas2
2022-11-03	ELECTING REPUBLICANS INDIANA PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-11-03	HMP	contributed_to	$30,000	pas2
2022-11-02	MEUSER FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-11-02	HMP	contributed_to	$71,179	pas2
2022-11-02	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2	pas2
2022-11-02	HMP	contributed_to	$45,221	pas2
2022-11-02	TORCH TECHNOLOGIES, INC POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-11-01	RAPTOR PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-11-01	JAM PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-11-01	HMP	contributed_to	$1,418,600	pas2
2022-11-01	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-10-31	LEADERSHIP IN SAVING AMERICA (LISA) PAC	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2022-10-31	CONCERNED AMERICANS FOR FREEDOM & OPPORTUNITY PAC (CAFO PAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-31	SIX PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-31	THE COUNCIL OF INSURANCE AGENTS & BROKERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-10-31	REPUBLICANS UNITED TO DEFEND YOU PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50	pas2
2022-10-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-10-27	AMERICA RELOADED	contributed_to	$3,500	pas2
2022-10-27	WINRED	contributed_to	$-3	pas2
2022-10-27	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-10-27	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-10-27	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-10-27	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-10-27	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-10-26	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-10-26	DOSE OF REALITY, OPTIMISM AND ZEAL PAC (DR OZ PAC)	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2022-10-26	DAN CRENSHAW FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-10-26	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-10-26	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-25	GARBARINO FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-10-24	NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$3,377	pas2

Outbound (4)

date	type	to	amount	source
—	principal_candidate_of	DEVOLDER-SANTOS FOR NY-03	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	DEVOLDER SANTOS FOR CONGRESS RECOUNT	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	DEVOLDER-SANTOS FOR CONGRESS	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	SANTOS FOR CONGRESS	—	candidate_committees

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