VAN DE WATER, KYLE
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H0NY19204- Internal id
e0c354e1-d3f6-4e4a-b880-f84b1fe44b2b- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NY-19. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 774,788 |
| People | Median age | 42 |
| Income | Median household income | $73,134 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $41,734 |
| Income | In poverty | 14.5% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.9% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.472 |
| Race | White alone | 81.7% |
| Race | Black alone | 4.4% |
| Race | Asian alone | 3.7% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 7.3% |
| Race | Two or more races | 7.1% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 7.4% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 89.2% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 4.1% |
| Education | High school or higher | 64.0% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 35.3% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 17.0% |
| Household | Family households | 58.6% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.26 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 36.5% |
| Housing | Median home value | $222,900 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,091 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 67.0% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 5.9% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.8% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 20.8% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 5.8% |
| Health | With a disability | 14.9% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 89.6% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 7.4% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 69.5% |
| Commute | Public transit | 2.2% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 13.6% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $0 | $33,700 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2020 | $154,791 | $121,092 | $33,700 | $0 | $73,453 |
Elections
Committees
- VAN DE WATER FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
- VAN DE WATER FOR NY-19 β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-06-11 | PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES | 24A | $8 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (2)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-06-11 | PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES | committee_contributed_to_candidate | $8 | 24A | fec_pas2 |
| 2021-06-11 | PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES | contributed_to | $8 | pas2 |
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | VAN DE WATER FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | VAN DE WATER FOR NY-19 | β | candidate_committees |