CONOLE, FRANCIS

D · house

FEC candidate id: H0NY24063
Internal id: 4a2fe51e-b59a-4980-ab8d-654fb6dbf0aa
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NY-22. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	767,369
People	Median age	40
Income	Median household income	$73,829
Income	Per-capita income	$41,034
Income	In poverty	14.2%
Income	Unemployed	4.9%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.461
Race	White alone	77.5%
Race	Black alone	8.7%
Race	Asian alone	4.0%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	5.9%
Race	Two or more races	7.3%
Origin	Foreign-born	7.7%
Language	Speaks English only at home	88.8%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	3.2%
Education	High school or higher	61.6%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	35.6%
Education	Advanced degree	16.1%
Household	Family households	58.7%
Household	Avg household size	2.27
Household	Never married (15+)	37.2%
Housing	Median home value	$192,600
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,051
Housing	Single-family detached	63.1%
Housing	Built before 1940	6.1%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.6%
Housing	Vacant units	8.2%
Service	Veterans (18+)	5.8%
Health	With a disability	14.0%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	90.6%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	6.5%
Commute	Drove alone	72.5%
Commute	Public transit	1.7%
Commute	Worked from home	11.8%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$41,239	$47,029	$0	$0	$0
2022	$3,051,108	$3,046,248	$5,791	$39,117	$2,370,977
2020	$963,179	$962,249	$930	$62,402	$928,158

Elections

2020 general house · NY-24 — lost_general
2022 general house · NY-22 — lost_general

Committees

CONOLE FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$784,164	$1,753,982	43

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$15,475	Mailer and postage
—	CLIMATE POWER ACTION	support	$3,350	Ad Production (Estimate)
—	CLIMATE POWER ACTION	support	$27,500	Ad Buy (Estimate)
—	CLIMATE POWER ACTION	support	$2,050	Texting Services (Estimate)
—	HMP	support	$6,000	Digital Production - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$18,750	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$18,750	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$6,000	Digital Production - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$32,825	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$18,750	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$18,750	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$21,588	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$21,588	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$21,588	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	INDIVISIBLE ACTION	support	$1,202	Postage
—	VOTEVETS	support	$458	Digital Communications - Estimated Cost
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$15,318	Mailer and postage
—	VOTEVETS	support	$440	Digital Communications - Estimated Cost
2022-11-01	NRCC	oppose	$600	MEDIA
2022-11-01	NRCC	oppose	$21,918	MEDIA
2022-11-01	NRCC	oppose	$27,356	MEDIA
2022-10-31	NRCC	oppose	$300,544	MEDIA
2022-10-28	NRCC	oppose	$646,988	MEDIA
2022-10-28	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$12,688	Mailer and postage
2022-10-25	NRCC	oppose	$600	MEDIA

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
—	VOTEVETS	24E	$458
—	VOTEVETS	24E	$439
2022-11-08	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF TEACHERS, AFL-CIO	24F	$1,566
2022-11-07	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	24K	$200
2022-11-06	CLF	24A	$1,950
2022-11-05	FRIENDS OF JIM CLYBURN	24K	$2,000
2022-11-05	CLIMATE POWER ACTION	24E	$1,911
2022-11-04	MAKING AMERICANS COUNT PAC (MAC PAC)	24K	$1,000
2022-11-04	RICHARD E NEAL FOR CONGRESS COMMITTEE	24K	$1,000
2022-11-04	EQUALITY PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-11-03	PROTECT THE VOTE	24E	$960
2022-11-03	SCHNEIDER FOR CONGRESS	24K	$1,000
2022-11-02	SHORE PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-11-02	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	24K	$25
2022-11-02	HMP	24E	$21,587
2022-11-02	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	24K	$250
2022-11-02	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	24K	$25
2022-11-02	UAW - V - CAP (UAW VOLUNTARY COMMUNITY ACTION P…	24K	$5,000
2022-11-01	NRCC	24A	$27,356
2022-11-01	D.R.I.V.E. - DEM, REP, IND VOTER ED (THE PAC OF…	24K	$2,500
2022-11-01	NRCC	24A	$21,917
2022-11-01	CLF	24A	$4,800
2022-11-01	NRCC	24A	$600
2022-11-01	LEADERS IN LIFE ACTING COOPERATIVELY (LILAC) PAC	24K	$2,000
2022-11-01	D.R.I.V.E. - DEM, REP, IND VOTER ED (THE PAC OF…	24K	$2,500

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	VOTEVETS	contributed_to	$439	pas2
—	VOTEVETS	contributed_to	$458	pas2
—	VOTEVETS	supports_independently	$458	fec_ies
—	VOTEVETS	supports_independently	$440	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$15,475	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$15,318	fec_ies
—	INDIVISIBLE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,202	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$18,750	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$21,588	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$18,750	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$6,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$6,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$21,588	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$32,825	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$18,750	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$18,750	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$21,588	fec_ies
—	CLIMATE POWER ACTION	supports_independently	$27,500	fec_ies
—	CLIMATE POWER ACTION	supports_independently	$2,050	fec_ies
—	CLIMATE POWER ACTION	supports_independently	$3,350	fec_ies
2022-11-08	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF TEACHERS AFL-CIO	contributed_to	$1,566	pas2
2022-11-07	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	contributed_to	$200	pas2
2022-11-06	CLF	contributed_to	$1,950	pas2
2022-11-05	FRIENDS OF JIM CLYBURN	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-11-05	CLIMATE POWER ACTION	contributed_to	$1,911	pas2
2022-11-04	MAKING AMERICANS COUNT PAC (MAC PAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-11-04	RICHARD E NEAL FOR CONGRESS COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-11-04	EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-11-03	PROTECT THE VOTE	contributed_to	$960	pas2
2022-11-03	SCHNEIDER FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-11-02	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	contributed_to	$25	pas2
2022-11-02	HMP	contributed_to	$21,587	pas2
2022-11-02	SHORE PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-11-02	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	contributed_to	$250	pas2
2022-11-02	UAW - V - CAP (UAW VOLUNTARY COMMUNITY ACTION PROGRAM) 'INT'L UNION UNITED AUTOMOBILE AEROSPACE & AGRICULTURAL IMPLEMENT WORKERS OF AMERICA UAW	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-11-02	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	contributed_to	$25	pas2
2022-11-01	LEADERS IN LIFE ACTING COOPERATIVELY (LILAC) PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-11-01	NRCC	opposes_independently	$27,356	fec_ies
2022-11-01	NRCC	opposes_independently	$21,918	fec_ies
2022-11-01	NRCC	opposes_independently	$600	fec_ies
2022-11-01	D.R.I.V.E. - DEM, REP, IND VOTER ED (THE PAC OF THE INT'L BRHD OF TEAMSTERS)	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-11-01	CLF	contributed_to	$4,800	pas2
2022-11-01	NRCC	contributed_to	$27,356	pas2
2022-11-01	D.R.I.V.E. - DEM, REP, IND VOTER ED (THE PAC OF THE INT'L BRHD OF TEAMSTERS)	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-11-01	NRCC	contributed_to	$600	pas2
2022-11-01	NRCC	contributed_to	$21,917	pas2
2022-10-31	JOE NEGUSE FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-31	GALLEGO FOR ARIZONA	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-31	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-10-31	NRCC	opposes_independently	$300,544	fec_ies
2022-10-31	MAD 4 PA PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-10-31	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	contributed_to	$20	pas2
2022-10-31	BLUE DOG POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-10-31	CLF	contributed_to	$50,000	pas2
2022-10-31	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	contributed_to	$10	pas2
2022-10-31	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	contributed_to	$5	pas2
2022-10-31	NRCC	contributed_to	$300,543	pas2
2022-10-29	BUILDING FOUNDATIONS & LANDMARK OPPORTUNITIES PAC (BFLO PAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-28	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	contributed_to	$5,957	pas2
2022-10-28	UAW NATIONAL CAP	contributed_to	$1,458	pas2
2022-10-28	NEW YORK STATE AFL-CIO	contributed_to	$523	pas2
2022-10-28	NRCC	opposes_independently	$646,988	fec_ies
2022-10-28	ADAM SMITH FOR CONGRESS COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-10-28	LCV VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$12,688	pas2
2022-10-28	CLF	contributed_to	$447,074	pas2
2022-10-28	SUNSHINE ORGANIZATION FOR TREMENDOUS OPPORTUNITIES PAC	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-10-28	NRCC	contributed_to	$646,987	pas2
2022-10-28	DCCC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-10-28	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$12,688	fec_ies
2022-10-28	CLF	contributed_to	$13,000	pas2
2022-10-27	GALLEGO FOR ARIZONA	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-27	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ACTION FUND INC PAC, DBA PLANNED PARENTHOOD FEDERAL PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-10-27	SUPPORTING HOUSE PROBLEM SOLVERS - SHP PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-27	ONE VOICE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-27	REMEDY PAC	contributed_to	$4,000	pas2
2022-10-27	OFFICE AND PROFESSIONAL EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION (OPEIU) JB MOSS VOICE OF THE ELECTORATE (VOTE)	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-10-27	LCV VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$15,318	pas2
2022-10-26	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	contributed_to	$4,657	pas2
2022-10-26	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	contributed_to	$2	pas2
2022-10-26	NEW YORK STATE AFL-CIO	contributed_to	$663	pas2
2022-10-26	NEW YORK STATE AFL-CIO	contributed_to	$781	pas2
2022-10-26	NEW YORK STATE AFL-CIO	contributed_to	$462	pas2
2022-10-26	NEW YORK STATE AFL-CIO	contributed_to	$676	pas2
2022-10-26	NEW YORK STATE AFL-CIO	contributed_to	$838	pas2
2022-10-26	NEW YORK STATE AFL-CIO	contributed_to	$317	pas2
2022-10-26	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	contributed_to	$5	pas2
2022-10-26	NEW YORK STATE AFL-CIO	contributed_to	$566	pas2
2022-10-26	EQUALITY LEADERSHIP FUND	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-26	THE US CAMPAIGN FUND	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-26	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF POSTAL SUPERVISORS PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-10-26	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	contributed_to	$30	pas2
2022-10-26	LCV VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$15,475	pas2
2022-10-26	LOFGREN FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-10-25	I GOT YOUR BACK PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-25	NRCC	opposes_independently	$32,082	fec_ies
2022-10-25	NRCC	opposes_independently	$600	fec_ies
2022-10-25	IRISH AMERICAN DEMOCRATS	contributed_to	$250	pas2
2022-10-25	CLF	contributed_to	$50,000	pas2
2022-10-25	NRCC	contributed_to	$32,082	pas2
2022-10-25	SIERRA CLUB POLITICAL COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	CONOLE FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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