MCHALE, PAUL
D Β· house Β· bioguide M000466
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- FEC candidate id
H0PA15028- Internal id
918c8fc5-6926-447f-b795-326d2ec93544- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), PA-15. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 758,565 |
| People | Median age | 42 |
| Income | Median household income | $65,472 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $34,968 |
| Income | In poverty | 13.1% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.4% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.444 |
| Race | White alone | 91.8% |
| Race | Black alone | 1.9% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.7% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 2.3% |
| Race | Two or more races | 3.7% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 2.8% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 93.9% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 1.3% |
| Education | High school or higher | 67.9% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 25.3% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 10.4% |
| Household | Family households | 62.7% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.33 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 32.5% |
| Housing | Median home value | $172,600 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $912 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 73.3% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 6.2% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.3% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 18.0% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.5% |
| Health | With a disability | 16.0% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 85.0% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 10.9% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 74.5% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.9% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 9.4% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | $291 | $1,575 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 1998 | $33,848 | $42,303 | $1,283 | $0 | $13,167 |
| 1996 | $374,776 | $366,847 | $9,739 | $6,650 | $145,437 |
| 1994 | $285,097 | $284,930 | $1,811 | $36,894 | $90,020 |
| 1992 | $223,578 | $221,935 | $1,642 | $97,777 | $87,274 |
| 1986 | $255 | $255 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 1984 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $255 | $0 |
| 1982 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 1980 | $12,712 | $12,519 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Elections
- 1980 general house Β· PA-15 β won
- 1992 general house Β· PA-15 β won
- 1994 general house Β· PA-15 β won
- 1996 general house Β· PA-15 β won
- 1998 general house Β· PA-15 β won
Committees
- FRIENDS OF PAUL MCHALE β principal Β· type H
Recent votes
No votes on file.
Sponsored & cosponsored bills
No sponsorships on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (10)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | educated_at | Liberty High School | β | wikidata | |
| β | educated_at | Lehigh University | β | wikidata | |
| β | educated_at | Georgetown University Law Center | β | wikidata | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | FRIENDS OF PAUL MCHALE | β | candidate_committees | |
| 2003-02-07 | held_position | Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense and Americas' Security Affairs | β | wikidata | |
| 1997-01-07 | held_position | United States representative | β | wikidata | |
| 1995-01-04 | held_position | United States representative | β | wikidata | |
| 1993-01-05 | held_position | United States representative | β | wikidata | |
| 1993-01-03 | held_position | United States representative | β | wikidata | |
| 1983-01-01 | held_position | member of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives | β | wikidata |