SMELTZER, MICHAEL E
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H0PA19145- Internal id
e85afcd3-df10-4af1-aed9-018c23ec19c1- Status
- challenger
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | $365 | $1,175 | $0 | $154,000 | $200 |
| 2010 | $176,250 | $175,440 | $809 | $154,000 | $22,215 |
Elections
- 2010 general house Β· PA-19 β lost_general
Committees
- SMELTZER FOR CONGRESS COMMITTEE β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | SMELTZER FOR CONGRESS COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees |