JENSEN, JESSE

R · house

FEC candidate id: H0WA08103
Internal id: ab459c39-241e-4e2c-b56e-7134796cf63d
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), WA-08. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	781,768
People	Median age	39
Income	Median household income	$127,442
Income	Per-capita income	$61,542
Income	In poverty	6.2%
Income	Unemployed	4.1%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.450
Race	White alone	69.5%
Race	Black alone	2.0%
Race	Asian alone	11.1%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	11.4%
Race	Two or more races	11.5%
Origin	Foreign-born	15.3%
Language	Speaks English only at home	80.5%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	6.7%
Education	High school or higher	63.3%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	42.0%
Education	Advanced degree	15.9%
Household	Family households	74.8%
Household	Avg household size	2.77
Household	Never married (15+)	26.4%
Housing	Median home value	$695,500
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,924
Housing	Single-family detached	77.0%
Housing	Built before 1940	1.8%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.8%
Housing	Vacant units	7.8%
Service	Veterans (18+)	7.5%
Health	With a disability	11.0%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	94.9%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	3.2%
Commute	Drove alone	65.5%
Commute	Public transit	1.4%
Commute	Worked from home	21.6%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2022	$0	$1,423	$0	$0	$0
2020	$857,594	$847,467	$10,127	$0	$718,280

Elections

2020 general house · WA-8 — lost_general
2022 general house · WA-8 — lost_general

Committees

FOUR TOUR PAC — principal · type N
FOUR TOUR PAC — leadership · type N
JENSEN FOR WA-08 — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$254,714	$29,727	14

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	LEAD THE WAY PAC	support	$18,971	Digital Advertising
2022-08-03	LEAD THE WAY PAC	support	$7,990	Text Messaging
2022-07-25	LEAD THE WAY PAC	support	$11,023	Television Advertising
2022-07-20	AMERICA UNITED	oppose	$29,727	DIRECT MAIL: PRINTING AND POSTAGE
2022-07-19	LEAD THE WAY PAC	support	$7,500	Television Advertising
2022-07-11	LEAD THE WAY PAC	support	$15,000	Television Advertising
2022-07-06	LEAD THE WAY PAC	support	$22,500	Digital Advertising
2022-04-08	LEAD THE WAY PAC	support	$40,000	Federal IE - Digital Advertising
2022-03-28	LEAD THE WAY PAC	support	$15,340	Federal IE - Radio Advertising
2022-03-14	LEAD THE WAY PAC	support	$30,000	Federal IE - Digital Advertising
2022-03-14	LEAD THE WAY PAC	support	$6,200	Federal IE - Digital Advertising
2022-02-24	LEAD THE WAY PAC	support	$1,250	Federal IE - Website
2022-02-22	LEAD THE WAY PAC	support	$3,500	Federal IE - Radio
2022-02-18	LEAD THE WAY PAC	support	$75,440	Federal IE - Radio

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
—	LEAD THE WAY PAC	24E	$18,971
2022-08-03	LEAD THE WAY PAC	24E	$7,990
2022-07-25	LEAD THE WAY PAC	24E	$11,022
2022-07-20	AMERICA UNITED	24A	$29,727
2022-07-19	LEAD THE WAY PAC	24E	$7,500
2022-07-11	LEAD THE WAY PAC	24E	$15,000
2022-07-06	LEAD THE WAY PAC	24E	$22,500
2022-04-08	LEAD THE WAY PAC	24E	$40,000
2022-03-28	LEAD THE WAY PAC	24E	$15,340
2022-03-14	LEAD THE WAY PAC	24E	$6,200
2022-03-14	LEAD THE WAY PAC	24E	$30,000
2022-02-24	LEAD THE WAY PAC	24E	$1,250
2022-02-22	LEAD THE WAY PAC	24E	$3,500
2022-02-18	LEAD THE WAY PAC	24E	$75,440
2021-12-14	LEAD THE WAY PAC	24E	$1,716
2021-06-11	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	24A	$8

Connected on the graph

Inbound (46)

date	from	type	amount	role	source
—	LEAD THE WAY PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$18,971	24E	fec_pas2
—	LEAD THE WAY PAC	contributed_to	$18,971		pas2
—	LEAD THE WAY PAC	supports_independently	$18,971		fec_ies
2022-08-03	LEAD THE WAY PAC	supports_independently	$7,990		fec_ies
2022-08-03	LEAD THE WAY PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$7,990	24E	fec_pas2
2022-08-03	LEAD THE WAY PAC	contributed_to	$7,990		pas2
2022-07-25	LEAD THE WAY PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$11,022	24E	fec_pas2
2022-07-25	LEAD THE WAY PAC	contributed_to	$11,022		pas2
2022-07-25	LEAD THE WAY PAC	supports_independently	$11,023		fec_ies
2022-07-20	AMERICA UNITED PAC	contributed_to	$29,727		pas2
2022-07-20	AMERICA UNITED PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$29,727	24A	fec_pas2
2022-07-20	AMERICA UNITED PAC	opposes_independently	$29,727		fec_ies
2022-07-19	LEAD THE WAY PAC	supports_independently	$7,500		fec_ies
2022-07-19	LEAD THE WAY PAC	contributed_to	$7,500		pas2
2022-07-19	LEAD THE WAY PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$7,500	24E	fec_pas2
2022-07-11	LEAD THE WAY PAC	supports_independently	$15,000		fec_ies
2022-07-11	LEAD THE WAY PAC	contributed_to	$15,000		pas2
2022-07-11	LEAD THE WAY PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$15,000	24E	fec_pas2
2022-07-06	LEAD THE WAY PAC	supports_independently	$22,500		fec_ies
2022-07-06	LEAD THE WAY PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$22,500	24E	fec_pas2
2022-07-06	LEAD THE WAY PAC	contributed_to	$22,500		pas2
2022-04-08	LEAD THE WAY PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$40,000	24E	fec_pas2
2022-04-08	LEAD THE WAY PAC	contributed_to	$40,000		pas2
2022-04-08	LEAD THE WAY PAC	supports_independently	$40,000		fec_ies
2022-03-28	LEAD THE WAY PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$15,340	24E	fec_pas2
2022-03-28	LEAD THE WAY PAC	supports_independently	$15,340		fec_ies
2022-03-28	LEAD THE WAY PAC	contributed_to	$15,340		pas2
2022-03-14	LEAD THE WAY PAC	contributed_to	$30,000		pas2
2022-03-14	LEAD THE WAY PAC	contributed_to	$6,200		pas2
2022-03-14	LEAD THE WAY PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$30,000	24E	fec_pas2
2022-03-14	LEAD THE WAY PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$6,200	24E	fec_pas2
2022-03-14	LEAD THE WAY PAC	supports_independently	$6,200		fec_ies
2022-03-14	LEAD THE WAY PAC	supports_independently	$30,000		fec_ies
2022-02-24	LEAD THE WAY PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,250	24E	fec_pas2
2022-02-24	LEAD THE WAY PAC	contributed_to	$1,250		pas2
2022-02-24	LEAD THE WAY PAC	supports_independently	$1,250		fec_ies
2022-02-22	LEAD THE WAY PAC	supports_independently	$3,500		fec_ies
2022-02-22	LEAD THE WAY PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$3,500	24E	fec_pas2
2022-02-22	LEAD THE WAY PAC	contributed_to	$3,500		pas2
2022-02-18	LEAD THE WAY PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$75,440	24E	fec_pas2
2022-02-18	LEAD THE WAY PAC	supports_independently	$75,440		fec_ies
2022-02-18	LEAD THE WAY PAC	contributed_to	$75,440		pas2
2021-12-14	LEAD THE WAY PAC	contributed_to	$1,716		pas2
2021-12-14	LEAD THE WAY PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,716	24E	fec_pas2
2021-06-11	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	contributed_to	$8		pas2
2021-06-11	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$8	24A	fec_pas2

Outbound (3)

date	type	to	amount	source
—	leadership_committee_of	FOUR TOUR PAC	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	JENSEN FOR WA-08	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	FOUR TOUR PAC	—	candidate_committees

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