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LYONS, ROBERT

R Β· house

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FEC candidate id
H2AK01232
Internal id
5baac046-7ced-48d4-9839-dba53bcab24e
Status
open seat

Elections

No elections on file.

Committees

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

FeatureΞ” P(win)
Base rate (historical)15.1%
R (major party)+10.0%
open seat-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency Γ— party Γ— office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

CycleSupportOpposeIEs
2022$0$1,8094

Recent (latest 25)

DateSpenderFor / againstAmountPurpose
2022-06-08ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTIONoppose$556Online Advertisement
2022-06-08ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTIONoppose$236Voter Guide Management
2022-06-08ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTIONoppose$268Print Advertisement
2022-06-08ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTIONoppose$750Voter Guide Website and Campaign Production

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

DateFrom committeeTypeAmount
2022-06-08ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION24A$750
2022-06-08ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION24A$555
2022-06-08ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION24A$267
2022-06-08ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTION24A$235

Connected on the graph

Inbound (12)

datefromtypeamountrolesource
2022-06-08ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTIONcommittee_contributed_to_candidate$75024Afec_pas2
2022-06-08ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTIONcommittee_contributed_to_candidate$55524Afec_pas2
2022-06-08ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTIONcommittee_contributed_to_candidate$26724Afec_pas2
2022-06-08ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTIONcommittee_contributed_to_candidate$23524Afec_pas2
2022-06-08ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTIONcontributed_to$750pas2
2022-06-08ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTIONcontributed_to$235pas2
2022-06-08ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTIONcontributed_to$267pas2
2022-06-08ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTIONcontributed_to$555pas2
2022-06-08ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTIONopposes_independently$556fec_ies
2022-06-08ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTIONopposes_independently$236fec_ies
2022-06-08ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTIONopposes_independently$268fec_ies
2022-06-08ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTIONopposes_independently$750fec_ies

Outbound (1)

datetypetoamountrolesource
β€”principal_candidate_ofROBERT LYONS FOR CONGRESSβ€”candidate_committees

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