REYNOLDS, CONRAD E

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2AR02103
Internal id: 7e490bc3-9521-4674-b8ec-00aa2fef5041
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), AR-02. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	761,775
People	Median age	38
Income	Median household income	$65,200
Income	Per-capita income	$37,971
Income	In poverty	14.4%
Income	Unemployed	4.4%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.475
Race	White alone	68.3%
Race	Black alone	20.6%
Race	Asian alone	1.6%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	6.4%
Race	Two or more races	6.4%
Origin	Foreign-born	4.4%
Language	Speaks English only at home	93.1%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	4.7%
Education	High school or higher	62.7%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	33.3%
Education	Advanced degree	13.0%
Household	Family households	62.2%
Household	Avg household size	2.36
Household	Never married (15+)	30.6%
Housing	Median home value	$211,300
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,028
Housing	Single-family detached	67.2%
Housing	Built before 1940	3.1%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.0%
Housing	Vacant units	11.3%
Service	Veterans (18+)	7.8%
Health	With a disability	16.8%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	89.4%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	8.4%
Commute	Drove alone	78.5%
Commute	Public transit	0.4%
Commute	Worked from home	10.2%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$0	$1,029	$0	$21,443	$0
2024	$25	$1,131	$1,029	$21,443	$25
2022	$127,592	$150,764	$2,135	$21,443	$114,041

Elections

2022 general house · AR-2 — lost_general

Committees

CONRAD REYNOLDS FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$223,368	$0	7

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2022-05-21	PRESERVE OUR RIGHTS PAC	support	$50,000	TV Ad
2022-05-21	PRESERVE OUR RIGHTS PAC	support	$50,000	TV Ad
2022-05-20	DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC	support	$29,768	Tv, Radio and Digital Advertising
2022-05-20	DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC	support	$23,743	Radio & Digital Advertising
2022-05-16	DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC	support	$649	Telephone Outreach
2022-05-10	DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC	support	$34,604	Direct Mail
2022-05-10	DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC	support	$34,604	Direct Mail

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-05-21	PRESERVE OUR RIGHTS PAC	24E	$50,000
2022-05-20	DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC	24E	$23,743
2022-05-20	DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC	24E	$29,768
2022-05-16	DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC	24E	$648
2022-05-10	DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC	24E	$34,603

Connected on the graph

Inbound (12)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-05-21	PRESERVE OUR RIGHTS PAC	contributed_to	$50,000	pas2
2022-05-21	PRESERVE OUR RIGHTS PAC	supports_independently	$50,000	fec_ies
2022-05-21	PRESERVE OUR RIGHTS PAC	supports_independently	$50,000	fec_ies
2022-05-20	DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC	contributed_to	$23,743	pas2
2022-05-20	DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC	contributed_to	$29,768	pas2
2022-05-20	DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC	supports_independently	$29,768	fec_ies
2022-05-20	DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC	supports_independently	$23,743	fec_ies
2022-05-16	DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC	supports_independently	$649	fec_ies
2022-05-16	DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC	contributed_to	$648	pas2
2022-05-10	DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC	contributed_to	$34,603	pas2
2022-05-10	DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC	supports_independently	$34,604	fec_ies
2022-05-10	DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC	supports_independently	$34,604	fec_ies

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	CONRAD REYNOLDS FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

pac.dog is a free, independent, non-partisan research tool. Every candidate, committee, bill, vote, member, and nonprofit on this site is mirrored from primary U.S. government sources (FEC, congress.gov, govinfo.gov, IRS) and each state's Secretary of State / election commission — no third-party data vendors, no paywall, no editorial intermediation. Citations to the originating source are on every detail page.