GRIJALVA, RAUL M

D · house

FEC candidate id: H2AZ07070
Internal id: 96ab996d-b6ee-4d08-803d-73f2bbcfab64
Status: incumbent

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), AZ-07. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	808,224
People	Median age	34
Income	Median household income	$59,811
Income	Per-capita income	$28,647
Income	In poverty	19.0%
Income	Unemployed	6.5%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.447
Race	White alone	39.6%
Race	Black alone	3.8%
Race	Asian alone	2.0%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	60.2%
Race	Two or more races	34.1%
Origin	Foreign-born	19.7%
Language	Speaks English only at home	52.8%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	43.6%
Education	High school or higher	49.3%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	22.2%
Education	Advanced degree	8.5%
Household	Family households	64.2%
Household	Avg household size	2.67
Household	Never married (15+)	41.4%
Housing	Median home value	$243,600
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,123
Housing	Single-family detached	59.3%
Housing	Built before 1940	4.1%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	7.0%
Housing	Vacant units	9.0%
Service	Veterans (18+)	6.7%
Health	With a disability	13.9%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	89.0%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	8.2%
Commute	Drove alone	70.7%
Commute	Public transit	1.4%
Commute	Worked from home	11.8%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$643,863	$549,407	$300,661	$4,016	$474,597
2022	$660,514	$680,517	$206,206	$9,422	$447,765
2020	$879,341	$691,288	$226,209	$4,016	$589,160
2018	$713,306	$733,300	$38,156	$4,016	$421,708
2016	$664,592	$642,529	$58,150	$4,016	$338,022
2014	$589,339	$561,116	$36,088	$4,016	$304,356
2012	$908,544	$930,950	$7,866	$25,545	$572,023
2010	$1,470,861	$1,463,648	$30,272	$0	$890,107
2008	$708,518	$720,900	$23,059	$0	$372,072
2006	$623,499	$662,763	$35,441	$0	$354,793
2004	$667,941	$618,858	$74,704	$0	$364,525
2002	$565,278	$545,703	$25,621	$33,000	$292,603

Elections

2002 general house · AZ-7 — won
2004 general house · AZ-7 — won
2006 general house · AZ-7 — won
2008 general house · AZ-7 — won
2010 general house · AZ-7 — won
2012 general house · AZ-7 — running
2012 general house · AZ-3 — won
2014 general house · AZ-3 — won
2014 general house · AZ-7 — running
2016 general house · AZ-7 — running
2016 general house · AZ-3 — won
2018 general house · AZ-7 — running
2018 general house · AZ-3 — won
2020 general house · AZ-3 — won
2020 general house · AZ-7 — running
2022 general house · AZ-7 — won
2024 general house · AZ-7 — won
2026 general house · AZ-7 — running

Committees

ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE FOR ALL PAC — principal · type H
ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE FOR ALL PAC — independent · type H
JARED POLIS VICTORY FUND 2012 — joint_fundraising · type N
PROGRESSIVE ARIZONA COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type N
PROGRESSIVE ARIZONA COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type N

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 99.0%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
incumbent	+78.0%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$2,000	$0	1

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2022-10-18	FEMINIST MAJORITY	support	$2,000	Estimated Staff Time For Canvass

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2025-06-26	WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	24E	$25,000
2025-06-13	WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	24E	$7,000
2025-06-11	MEDICARE FOR ALL	24E	$13,750
2025-06-11	MEDICARE FOR ALL	24E	$6,250
2025-06-04	WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	24E	$60,000
2025-04-09	ALASKA WILDERNESS LEAGUE ACTION FUND	24K	$500
2022-11-28	ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUND	24E	$6
2022-11-28	ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUND	24E	$33
2022-11-07	UNITED WE DREAM ACTION	24E	$3
2022-11-07	SIERRA CLUB POLITICAL COMMITTEE	24K	$2,000
2022-11-02	ARCHIPAC - THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF ARCHITECTS	24K	$2,500
2022-11-01	AMERICAN COUNCIL OF ENGINEERING COMPANIES (ACEC…	24K	$3,000
2022-10-31	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	24K	$25
2022-10-18	FEMINIST MAJORITY	24E	$1,554
2022-10-17	AMERICAN CRYSTAL SUGAR COMPANY POLITICAL ACTION…	24K	$5,000
2022-10-12	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTI…	24K	$4,000
2022-10-07	SQUIRE PATTON BOGGS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE …	24K	$1,000
2022-10-07	AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR JUSTICE POLITICAL ACTI…	24K	$2,500
2022-10-05	AMERICAN HORSE PAC	24K	$2,000
2022-09-30	LIFTOFF PAC	24K	$4,900
2022-09-29	KING & SPALDING NONPARTISAN COMMITTEE FOR GOOD …	24K	$1,000
2022-09-29	BARNES & THORNBURG POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$500
2022-09-29	AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR JUSTICE POLITICAL ACTI…	24K	$2,500
2022-09-26	ALLIANCE FOR RETIRED AMERICANS POLITICAL ACTION…	24K	$1,000
2022-09-23	JSTREETPAC	24K	$1,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

date	from	type	amount	source
2025-06-26	WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	contributed_to	$25,000	pas2
2025-06-13	WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	contributed_to	$7,000	pas2
2025-06-11	MEDICARE FOR ALL	contributed_to	$13,750	pas2
2025-06-11	MEDICARE FOR ALL	contributed_to	$6,250	pas2
2025-06-04	WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	contributed_to	$60,000	pas2
2025-04-09	ALASKA WILDERNESS LEAGUE ACTION FUND	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-11-28	ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUND	contributed_to	$6	pas2
2022-11-28	ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUND	contributed_to	$33	pas2
2022-11-07	SIERRA CLUB POLITICAL COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-11-07	UNITED WE DREAM ACTION PAC	contributed_to	$3	pas2
2022-11-02	ARCHIPAC - THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF ARCHITECTS	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-11-01	AMERICAN COUNCIL OF ENGINEERING COMPANIES (ACEC/PAC)	contributed_to	$3,000	pas2
2022-10-31	DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC	contributed_to	$25	pas2
2022-10-18	FEMINIST MAJORITY	supports_independently	$2,000	fec_ies
2022-10-18	FEMINIST MAJORITY	contributed_to	$1,554	pas2
2022-10-17	AMERICAN CRYSTAL SUGAR COMPANY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-10-12	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$4,000	pas2
2022-10-07	AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR JUSTICE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (AAJ PAC)	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-10-07	SQUIRE PATTON BOGGS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (SQUIRE PATTON BOGGS PAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-05	AMERICAN HORSE PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-09-30	LIFTOFF PAC	contributed_to	$4,900	pas2
2022-09-29	AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR JUSTICE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (AAJ PAC)	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-09-29	KING & SPALDING NONPARTISAN COMMITTEE FOR GOOD GOVERNMENT	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-29	BARNES & THORNBURG POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-09-26	ALLIANCE FOR RETIRED AMERICANS POLITICAL ACTION FUND	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-23	JSTREETPAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-19	MACHINISTS NON PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE OF THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MACHINISTS & AEROSPACE WORKERS	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-09-15	SUSTAINABLE ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT COALITION PAC (SEEC PAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-08	END CITIZENS UNITED	contributed_to	$3,000	pas2
2022-09-07	UNITED WE DREAM ACTION PAC	contributed_to	$290	pas2
2022-09-07	UNITED WE DREAM ACTION PAC	contributed_to	$170	pas2
2022-09-07	UNITED WE DREAM ACTION PAC	contributed_to	$17	pas2
2022-08-26	AMERICAN SPORTFISHING ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-08-15	CARPENTERS LEGISLATIVE IMPROVEMENT COMMITTEE UNITED BROTHERHOOD OF CARPENTERS AND JOINERS	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-08-01	INT'L ASSOCIATION OF BRIDGE, STRUCTURAL, ORNAMENTAL AND REINFORCING IRON WORKERS (IPAL)	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-07-26	MACHINISTS NON PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE OF THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MACHINISTS & AEROSPACE WORKERS	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-07-26	AMERICAN CRYSTAL SUGAR COMPANY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-07-22	NATIONAL EMERGENCY MEDICINE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE / AMERICAN COLLEGE OF EMERGENCY PHYSICIANS	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-07-21	COMMUNICATIONS WORKERS OF AMERICA - COPE POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-07-21	AIR LINE PILOTS ASSOCIATION PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-07-20	PILLSBURY WINTHROP SHAW PITTMAN LLP POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-07-20	AMERICAN PHYSICAL THERAPY ASSOCIATION PHYSICAL THERAPY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (PT-PAC)	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-07-19	THE WILDERNESS SOCIETY ACTION FUND POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (PAC)	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2
2022-07-15	NRDC ACTION FUND INC PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-07-15	BROTHERHOOD OF RAILROAD SIGNALMEN POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-07-13	SALT RIVER VALLEY WATER USERS' ASSOCIATION POLITICAL INVOLVEMENT COMMITTEE ( SRPPIC)	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-07-11	NATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSOCIATION PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-07-07	SMART TD PAC	contributed_to	$3,000	pas2
2022-06-30	HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN PAC	contributed_to	$12	pas2
2022-06-29	LIFTOFF PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-06-13	FAIR SHOT PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-06-07	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF LETTER CARRIERS OF U.S.A. POLITICAL FUND (LETTER CARRIER POLITICAL FUND)	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-05-25	NEA FUND FOR CHILDREN AND PUBLIC EDUCATION	contributed_to	$3,000	pas2
2022-05-25	NEA FUND FOR CHILDREN AND PUBLIC EDUCATION	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-05-13	SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	contributed_to	$10	pas2
2022-04-26	NATIONAL BEER WHOLESALERS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2
2022-04-05	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$3,000	pas2
2022-03-31	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF TEACHERS, AFL-CIO COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-03-30	LIFTOFF PAC	contributed_to	$100	pas2
2022-03-30	LIFTOFF PAC	contributed_to	$900	pas2
2022-03-21	POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE INTERNATIONAL ALLIANCE OF THEATRICAL STAGE EMPLOYEES	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-18	JSTREETPAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-17	NATIONAL TREASURY EMPLOYEES UNION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-16	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY & MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES P E O P L E	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-03-15	NATIONAL ACTIVE AND RETIRED FEDERAL EMPLOYEES ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COM (NARFE-PAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-08	ENGINEERS POLITICAL EDUCATION COMMITTEE (EPEC)/INTERNATIONAL UNION OF OPERATING ENGINEERS	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-02-24	ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE ACTION FUND PAC (EDAF PAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-02-24	NATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSOCIATION PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-02-16	INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF FIREFIGHTERS INTERESTED IN REGISTRATION AND EDUCATION PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-02-11	LEAGUE OF CONSERVATION VOTERS ACTION FUND	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2
2022-02-09	UNITED MINE WORKERS OF AMERICA - COAL MINERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-02-08	INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-02-01	MEDICARE FOR ALL	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-01-19	AMERICAN COUNCIL OF ENGINEERING COMPANIES (ACEC/PAC)	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2021-12-30	LIFTOFF PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-12-21	UNITED FOOD AND COMMERCIAL WORKERS INTERNATIONAL UNION ACTIVE BALLOT CLUB	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-12-21	UNITED FOOD AND COMMERCIAL WORKERS INTERNATIONAL UNION ACTIVE BALLOT CLUB	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-12-15	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY & MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES P E O P L E	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2021-12-14	VAIL RESORTS EMPLOYEE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-12-01	PROGRESSIVE MAJORITY	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2021-11-23	CARPENTERS LEGISLATIVE IMPROVEMENT COMMITTEE UNITED BROTHERHOOD OF CARPENTERS AND JOINERS	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-11-22	FILEMON VELA FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2021-11-22	FILEMON VELA FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2021-10-27	YUKON KUSKO POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE INC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2021-10-18	AMERICAN HORSE PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2021-10-14	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-10-07	SMART TD PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-09-29	LIFTOFF PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-09-27	PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECT	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-08-23	ENVIRONMENT AMERICA INC. VOTER ACTION (ABBV. 'ENVIRONMENT AMERICA VOTER ACTION')	contributed_to	$2,022	pas2
2021-08-06	UNITED STATES TELECOM ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (TELECOMPAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-06-30	PASTOR FOR ARIZONA	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2021-06-17	JSTREETPAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-06-16	SALT RIVER VALLEY WATER USERS' ASSOCIATION POLITICAL INVOLVEMENT COMMITTEE ( SRPPIC)	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2021-06-04	CAREER EDUCATION COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-06-04	LORETTA SANCHEZ FOR SENATE	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2021-06-01	NELSON MULLINS RILEY & SCARBOROUGH, LLP FEDERAL POLITICAL COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-05-27	SMART TD PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-05-27	AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR JUSTICE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (AAJ PAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-05-24	UNITED MINE WORKERS OF AMERICA - COAL MINERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2

Outbound (5)

date	type	to	amount	source
—	independent_committee_of	ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE FOR ALL PAC	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	PROGRESSIVE ARIZONA COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	JARED POLIS VICTORY FUND 2012	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	PROGRESSIVE ARIZONA COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE FOR ALL PAC	—	candidate_committees

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