STOLL, MATTHEW

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2CA22249
Internal id: 2970e4a3-c918-43e8-b083-1c1531357786
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-21. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	758,000
People	Median age	32
Income	Median household income	$64,764
Income	Per-capita income	$26,800
Income	In poverty	21.9%
Income	Unemployed	10.1%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.463
Race	White alone	29.3%
Race	Black alone	4.6%
Race	Asian alone	9.8%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	65.0%
Race	Two or more races	27.1%
Origin	Foreign-born	21.5%
Language	Speaks English only at home	49.5%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	42.0%
Education	High school or higher	42.8%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	17.1%
Education	Advanced degree	5.5%
Household	Family households	72.4%
Household	Avg household size	3.25
Household	Never married (15+)	43.2%
Housing	Median home value	$334,100
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,293
Housing	Single-family detached	66.9%
Housing	Built before 1940	6.4%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	13.6%
Housing	Vacant units	4.9%
Service	Veterans (18+)	3.8%
Health	With a disability	13.6%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	87.3%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	8.9%
Commute	Drove alone	72.7%
Commute	Public transit	1.0%
Commute	Worked from home	8.8%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$24,845	$24,845	$0	$0	$100
2022	$358,479	$358,479	$0	$0	$209,229

Elections

2022 general house · CA-21 — lost_general

Committees

MATT STOLL FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
STOLL FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-04-11	WILLIAM TIMMONS FOR CONGRESS	24K	$250
2022-04-04	UNITED PILOTS PAC/UNITED AIRLINES MASTER EXECUT…	24K	$1,000
2022-03-28	NEVER SURRENDER PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-03-25	FREEDOM 21: FIGHTING FOR FREEDOM IN THE 21ST CE…	24K	$1,000
2022-03-25	31 DAYS PAC	24K	$2,900
2022-03-23	FREEDOM'S DEFENSE FUND	24K	$1,000
2022-03-22	FRONTLINE PATRIOTS	24K	$1,000
2022-03-21	GET AMERICA RIGHT: COMMUNITY IN ACTION	24K	$2,000
2022-03-18	DR. BRIAN BABIN FOR CONGRESS	24K	$1,000
2022-03-17	AIR LINE PILOTS ASSOCIATION PAC	24K	$2,500
2022-03-15	RAPTOR PAC	24K	$2,000
2022-03-14	SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS P…	24K	$2,500
2022-03-07	BRINGING REPUBLICAN EXCELLENCE TO TOWN PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-02-23	GUY FOR CONGRESS	24K	$1,000
2022-02-17	BOLD ACTIVE CONSERVATIVES OF NEBRASKA PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-02-10	SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS P…	24K	$2,500
2022-02-01	GET AMERICA RIGHT: COMMUNITY IN ACTION	24K	$2,500

Connected on the graph

Inbound (17)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-04-11	WILLIAM TIMMONS FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$250	pas2
2022-04-04	UNITED PILOTS PAC/UNITED AIRLINES MASTER EXECUTIVE COUNCIL	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-28	NEVER SURRENDER PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-25	31 DAYS PAC	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2022-03-25	FREEDOM 21: FIGHTING FOR FREEDOM IN THE 21ST CENTURY	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-23	FREEDOM'S DEFENSE FUND	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-22	FRONTLINE PATRIOTS	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-21	GET AMERICA RIGHT: COMMUNITY IN ACTION	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-03-18	DR. BRIAN BABIN FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-17	AIR LINE PILOTS ASSOCIATION PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-03-15	RAPTOR PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-03-14	SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-03-07	BRINGING REPUBLICAN EXCELLENCE TO TOWN PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-02-23	GUY FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-02-17	BOLD ACTIVE CONSERVATIVES OF NEBRASKA PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-02-10	SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-02-01	GET AMERICA RIGHT: COMMUNITY IN ACTION	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	MATT STOLL FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	STOLL FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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