CASTLE, MICHAEL N
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H2DE00072- Internal id
306cd697-c351-429a-8224-368d20cd00bc
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | $23,436 | $297,283 | $779,528 | $0 | $0 |
| 2010 | $3,502,586 | $3,311,940 | $1,053,389 | $0 | $2,030,819 |
| 2008 | $1,480,597 | $1,808,080 | $862,744 | $0 | $704,480 |
| 2006 | $1,267,046 | $1,112,720 | $1,190,228 | $0 | $666,243 |
| 2004 | $992,245 | $902,711 | $1,035,902 | $0 | $592,874 |
| 2002 | $796,754 | $760,167 | $946,369 | $0 | $448,104 |
| 2000 | $675,048 | $588,911 | $909,781 | $0 | $329,546 |
| 1998 | $644,432 | $331,621 | $823,642 | $0 | $389,739 |
| 1996 | $578,078 | $376,350 | $510,831 | $0 | $341,085 |
| 1994 | $691,261 | $400,083 | $309,105 | $0 | $467,632 |
| 1992 | $708,671 | $690,740 | $17,929 | $0 | $472,769 |
Elections
Committees
- CASTLEPAC LLC β principal Β· type Q
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | CASTLEPAC LLC | β | candidate_committees |