DUKE, BRADY

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2FL07164
Internal id: 930ebf8b-bc65-4d8d-bb55-848110e8a2f6
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), FL-07. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	789,605
People	Median age	42
Income	Median household income	$81,536
Income	Per-capita income	$43,482
Income	In poverty	9.2%
Income	Unemployed	4.2%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.438
Race	White alone	64.8%
Race	Black alone	9.7%
Race	Asian alone	4.1%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	21.9%
Race	Two or more races	14.0%
Origin	Foreign-born	12.7%
Language	Speaks English only at home	79.4%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	14.4%
Education	High school or higher	61.9%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	36.9%
Education	Advanced degree	12.8%
Household	Family households	66.0%
Household	Avg household size	2.48
Household	Never married (15+)	29.9%
Housing	Median home value	$354,500
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,748
Housing	Single-family detached	64.9%
Housing	Built before 1940	0.6%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.2%
Housing	Vacant units	9.7%
Service	Veterans (18+)	7.9%
Health	With a disability	13.7%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	93.8%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	3.9%
Commute	Drove alone	69.7%
Commute	Public transit	0.4%
Commute	Worked from home	19.3%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$0	$2,903	$21,068	$45,613	$0
2024	$60	$7,327	$23,971	$45,613	$0
2022	$3,145,841	$3,114,603	$31,238	$46,418	$3,087,874

Elections

2022 general house · FL-7 — lost_general

Committees

BRADY DUKE FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
DUKE PAC — leadership · type N

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$416,583	$0	8

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2022-08-20	FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC.	support	$38,250	PLACED MEDIA: TV
2022-08-16	FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC.	support	$10,100	PRODUCTION COST: TV AD
2022-08-16	FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC.	support	$79,900	PLACED MEDIA: TV
2022-08-02	PROTECT AND DEFEND AMERICA	support	$50,000	ONLINE ADVERTISING / EMAIL COMMUNICATION / SMS MESSAGES
2022-06-09	PROTECT AND DEFEND AMERICA	support	$25,000	ONLINE ADVERTISING / EMAIL COMMUNICATION / SMS MESSAGES
2022-05-13	SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS P…	support	$13,333	Digital Advertising
2022-04-12	PROTECT AND DEFEND AMERICA	support	$100,000	ONLINE ADVERTISING / EMAIL COMMUNICATION / SMS MESSAGES
2022-03-15	PROTECT AND DEFEND AMERICA	support	$100,000	ONLINE ADVERTISING / EMAIL COMMUNICATION / SMS MESSAGES

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-12-30	WINRED	24K	$-10
2022-12-30	WINRED	24K	$-10
2022-12-30	WINRED	24K	$-10
2022-12-30	WINRED	24K	$-10
2022-12-22	PROTECT AND DEFEND AMERICA	24E	$50,000
2022-12-20	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-12-16	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-12-13	WINRED	24K	$-20
2022-12-11	WINRED	24K	$-50
2022-12-11	WINRED	24K	$-30
2022-12-10	WINRED	24K	$-4
2022-12-10	WINRED	24K	$-4
2022-12-10	WINRED	24K	$-4
2022-12-10	WINRED	24K	$-15
2022-12-08	WINRED	24K	$-20
2022-12-08	WINRED	24K	$-1
2022-12-08	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-12-08	WINRED	24K	$-9
2022-12-07	WINRED	24K	$-100
2022-12-07	WINRED	24K	$-100
2022-12-07	WINRED	24K	$-15
2022-12-07	WINRED	24K	$-15
2022-12-07	WINRED	24K	$-100
2022-12-07	WINRED	24K	$-15
2022-12-06	WINRED	24K	$0

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-12-30	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-12-30	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-12-30	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-12-30	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-12-22	PROTECT AND DEFEND AMERICA	contributed_to	$50,000	pas2
2022-12-20	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-12-16	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-12-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$-20	pas2
2022-12-11	WINRED	contributed_to	$-30	pas2
2022-12-11	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50	pas2
2022-12-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$-15	pas2
2022-12-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-12-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-12-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-12-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1	pas2
2022-12-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-20	pas2
2022-12-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-9	pas2
2022-12-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-12-07	WINRED	contributed_to	$-15	pas2
2022-12-07	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100	pas2
2022-12-07	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100	pas2
2022-12-07	WINRED	contributed_to	$-15	pas2
2022-12-07	WINRED	contributed_to	$-15	pas2
2022-12-07	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100	pas2
2022-12-06	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-12-01	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-11-24	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-15	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-3	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-11	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-15	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2,000	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-15	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-6	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-15	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-15	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-15	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-35	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-3	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-3	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-900	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-11	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-3	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-3	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-3	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-11	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-3	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-20	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-15	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-3	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-19	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-11-19	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100	pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2,944	pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-250	pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1,000	pas2

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	leadership_committee_of	DUKE PAC	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	BRADY DUKE FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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