BRACY, RANDOLPH

D · house

FEC candidate id: H2FL10200
Internal id: 92835ebd-3bea-4610-b5b0-9e1771251172
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), FL-10. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	788,933
People	Median age	35
Income	Median household income	$71,412
Income	Per-capita income	$38,346
Income	In poverty	15.3%
Income	Unemployed	6.2%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.486
Race	White alone	40.1%
Race	Black alone	26.4%
Race	Asian alone	4.9%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	30.2%
Race	Two or more races	18.8%
Origin	Foreign-born	23.1%
Language	Speaks English only at home	64.1%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	22.6%
Education	High school or higher	61.8%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	37.1%
Education	Advanced degree	13.5%
Household	Family households	60.5%
Household	Avg household size	2.60
Household	Never married (15+)	44.7%
Housing	Median home value	$360,000
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,692
Housing	Single-family detached	48.3%
Housing	Built before 1940	2.2%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	4.0%
Housing	Vacant units	10.0%
Service	Veterans (18+)	5.1%
Health	With a disability	11.5%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	93.0%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	4.8%
Commute	Drove alone	68.3%
Commute	Public transit	1.9%
Commute	Worked from home	16.5%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
2022	$545,957	$545,957	$0	$0	$437,307

Elections

2022 general house · FL-10 — lost_general

Committees

BRACY FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$55,908	$25,000	5

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	URBAN EMPOWERMENT ACTION PAC, INC.	support	$9,831	Digital Advertising (Estimate)
2022-08-16	URBAN EMPOWERMENT ACTION PAC, INC.	support	$26,077	Direct Mail
2022-08-14	WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	oppose	$25,000	Digital Ads
2022-08-10	A BETTER ORLANDO PAC	support	$10,000	GOTV Efforts
2022-07-30	A BETTER ORLANDO PAC	support	$10,000	Staffing

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-11-23	NEXTERA ENERGY, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$-2,500
2022-10-03	AMERICAN DENTAL ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION CO…	24K	$2,500
2022-09-14	DUANE MORRIS GOVERNMENT COMMITTEE	24K	$-500
2022-08-23	URBAN EMPOWERMENT ACTION PAC, INC.	24E	$9,831
2022-08-23	URBAN EMPOWERMENT ACTION PAC, INC.	24E	$4,706
2022-08-16	URBAN EMPOWERMENT ACTION PAC, INC.	24E	$26,077
2022-08-14	CRH AMERICAS, INC. PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-08-14	WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	24A	$25,000
2022-08-10	A BETTER ORLANDO PAC	24E	$10,000
2022-08-09	NATIONAL AUTOMOBILE DEALERS ASSOCIATION POLITIC…	24K	$5,000
2022-08-03	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTI…	24K	$5,000
2022-08-03	GRAYROBINSON P.A. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$1,000
2022-08-02	VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS, INC. POLITICAL ACTION C…	24K	$2,000
2022-07-30	A BETTER ORLANDO PAC	24E	$10,000
2022-07-06	DUANE MORRIS GOVERNMENT COMMITTEE	24K	$500
2022-07-02	A BETTER ORLANDO PAC	24E	$9,000
2022-06-29	MACHINISTS NON PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE OF THE…	24K	$5,000
2022-06-23	UNITED PARCEL SERVICE, INC. PAC (UPSPAC)	24K	$5,000
2022-05-23	NEXTERA ENERGY, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$2,500
2022-05-23	NEXTERA ENERGY, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$2,500
2022-05-20	JM FAMILY ENTERPRISES, INC PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-05-04	THE BLUE SOUTH PAC	24K	$2,000
2022-04-26	AMERICAN PROPERTY CASUALTY INSURANCE ASSOCIATIO…	24K	$2,500
2022-04-20	ASSOCIATION OF KENTUCKY FRIED CHICKEN FRANCHISE…	24K	$5,000
2022-03-15	DMFI PAC	24K	$2,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (55)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	URBAN EMPOWERMENT ACTION PAC, INC.	supports_independently	$9,831	fec_ies
2022-11-23	NEXTERA ENERGY, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$-2,500	pas2
2022-10-03	AMERICAN DENTAL ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-09-14	DUANE MORRIS GOVERNMENT COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$-500	pas2
2022-08-23	URBAN EMPOWERMENT ACTION PAC, INC.	contributed_to	$9,831	pas2
2022-08-23	URBAN EMPOWERMENT ACTION PAC, INC.	contributed_to	$4,706	pas2
2022-08-16	URBAN EMPOWERMENT ACTION PAC, INC.	supports_independently	$26,077	fec_ies
2022-08-16	URBAN EMPOWERMENT ACTION PAC, INC.	contributed_to	$26,077	pas2
2022-08-14	CRH AMERICAS, INC. PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-08-14	WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	contributed_to	$25,000	pas2
2022-08-14	WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	opposes_independently	$25,000	fec_ies
2022-08-10	A BETTER ORLANDO PAC	supports_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2022-08-10	A BETTER ORLANDO PAC	contributed_to	$10,000	pas2
2022-08-09	NATIONAL AUTOMOBILE DEALERS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-08-03	GRAYROBINSON P.A. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-08-03	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-08-02	VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (VERIZON PAC)	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-07-30	A BETTER ORLANDO PAC	contributed_to	$10,000	pas2
2022-07-30	A BETTER ORLANDO PAC	supports_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2022-07-06	DUANE MORRIS GOVERNMENT COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-07-02	A BETTER ORLANDO PAC	contributed_to	$9,000	pas2
2022-06-29	MACHINISTS NON PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE OF THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MACHINISTS & AEROSPACE WORKERS	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-06-23	UNITED PARCEL SERVICE, INC. PAC (UPSPAC)	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-05-23	NEXTERA ENERGY, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-05-23	NEXTERA ENERGY, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-05-20	JM FAMILY ENTERPRISES, INC PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-05-04	THE BLUE SOUTH PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-04-26	AMERICAN PROPERTY CASUALTY INSURANCE ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (INSURING AMERICA PAC)	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-04-20	ASSOCIATION OF KENTUCKY FRIED CHICKEN FRANCHISEES INC PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-03-15	DMFI PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-02-07	AMERICAN HOSPITAL ASSOCIATION PAC	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2
2022-02-02	AMERICA'S CREDIT UNIONS PAC OF CREDIT UNION NATIONAL ASSOCIATION, INC.	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-01-26	NEW DEMOCRAT COALITION ACTION FUND	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-12-15	FLORIDA BANKERS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-12-08	DOGWOOD PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-12-08	AMERICAN PHYSICAL THERAPY ASSOCIATION PHYSICAL THERAPY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (PT-PAC)	contributed_to	$3,000	pas2
2021-11-30	EQUIFAX INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-11-22	UA UNION PLUMBERS & PIPEFITTERS VOTE! PAC (UNITED ASSOCIATION OF JOURNEYMEN AND APPRENTICES OF THE PLUMBING & PIPEFITTING INDUSTRY OF THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA)	contributed_to	$4,800	pas2
2021-10-07	DUANE MORRIS GOVERNMENT COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2021-09-29	INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF FIREFIGHTERS INTERESTED IN REGISTRATION AND EDUCATION PAC	contributed_to	$691	pas2
2021-09-23	GLADIATORS PAC	contributed_to	$250	pas2
2021-09-20	CRH AMERICAS, INC. PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-09-15	MIAMI ASSOCIATION OF FIRE FIGHTERS IAFF LOCAL 587 PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-08-31	INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF FIREFIGHTERS INTERESTED IN REGISTRATION AND EDUCATION PAC	contributed_to	$662	pas2
2021-08-25	U.S. ISRAEL PAC (USI PAC)	contributed_to	$3,500	pas2
2021-08-17	AMERICAN HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-08-07	INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF FIREFIGHTERS INTERESTED IN REGISTRATION AND EDUCATION PAC	contributed_to	$691	pas2
2021-07-29	INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF FIREFIGHTERS INTERESTED IN REGISTRATION AND EDUCATION PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-07-28	JM FAMILY ENTERPRISES, INC PAC	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2
2021-06-28	INDEPENDENT INSURANCE AGENTS & BROKERS OF AMERICA, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (INSURPAC)	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2021-06-18	UNITED STATES SUGAR CORPORATION EMPLOYEE STOCK OWNERSHIP PLAN POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE,	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2021-06-17	NEXTERA ENERGY, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2021-06-15	GRAYROBINSON P.A. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2
2021-06-01	WILLIAMS PAC INC (WILLIAMS PAC)	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-05-27	GRAYROBINSON P.A. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	BRACY FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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