STARGEL, KELLI

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2FL15233
Internal id: 6df72905-0675-4635-a2a1-eb33916521c6
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), FL-15. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	813,472
People	Median age	39
Income	Median household income	$71,624
Income	Per-capita income	$38,483
Income	In poverty	13.7%
Income	Unemployed	4.5%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.466
Race	White alone	54.4%
Race	Black alone	14.3%
Race	Asian alone	5.2%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	27.5%
Race	Two or more races	18.0%
Origin	Foreign-born	16.9%
Language	Speaks English only at home	72.2%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	19.8%
Education	High school or higher	61.0%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	33.9%
Education	Advanced degree	12.9%
Household	Family households	64.8%
Household	Avg household size	2.60
Household	Never married (15+)	34.6%
Housing	Median home value	$326,300
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,490
Housing	Single-family detached	53.3%
Housing	Built before 1940	1.0%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	3.2%
Housing	Vacant units	9.2%
Service	Veterans (18+)	7.9%
Health	With a disability	13.3%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	92.4%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	4.7%
Commute	Drove alone	67.0%
Commute	Public transit	0.7%
Commute	Worked from home	19.4%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2022	$360,993	$360,993	$0	$0	$245,993

Elections

2022 general house · FL-15 — lost_general

Committees

KELLI STARGEL FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$870,426	$200,766	28

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2022-08-18	CONSERVATIVE ACTION FUND	oppose	$60,000	PLACED MEDIA: TV
2022-08-16	CONSERVATIVE ACTION FUND	oppose	$18,750	DIGITAL ADVERTISING
2022-08-16	CONSERVATIVE ACTION FUND	oppose	$1,250	PRODUCTION COST: DIGITAL AD
2022-08-12	CONSERVATIVE ACTION FUND	oppose	$56,250	PLACED MEDIA: TV
2022-08-12	CONSERVATIVE ACTION FUND	oppose	$10,000	PRODUCTION COST: TV
2022-08-11	CONSERVATIVE ACTION FUND	oppose	$3,108	DIRECT MAIL: PRINTING AND POSTAGE
2022-08-11	CONSERVATIVE ACTION FUND	oppose	$14,982	DIRECT MAIL: PRINTING AND POSTAGE
2022-08-08	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	support	$164,294	Media placement
2022-08-08	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	support	$16,326	Media production
2022-08-05	CONSERVATIVE ACTION FUND	oppose	$1,250	PRODUCTION COST: DIGITAL AD
2022-08-05	CONSERVATIVE ACTION FUND	oppose	$21,425	DIRECT MAIL: PRINTING AND POSTAGE
2022-08-05	CONSERVATIVE ACTION FUND	oppose	$13,750	DIGITAL ADVERTISING
2022-07-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	support	$36,188	Direct mail
2022-07-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	support	$9,638	Media Production
2022-07-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	support	$34,718	Direct Mail
2022-07-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	support	$72,005	Direct mail
2022-07-22	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	support	$43,253	Direct mail
2022-07-22	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	support	$25,231	Digital placement
2022-07-14	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	support	$28,398	Direct Mail
2022-07-14	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	support	$34,945	Direct Mail
2022-07-14	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	support	$34,945	Direct mail
2022-07-06	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	support	$7,163	Direct Mail
2022-07-06	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	support	$27,023	Direct Mail
2022-06-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	support	$27,023	Direct mail
2022-06-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	support	$25,382	Digital placement

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-08-18	CONSERVATIVE ACTION FUND	24A	$60,000
2022-08-16	CONSERVATIVE ACTION FUND	24A	$18,750
2022-08-16	CONSERVATIVE ACTION FUND	24A	$1,250
2022-08-15	NEXTERA ENERGY, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$5,000
2022-08-12	CONSERVATIVE ACTION FUND	24A	$10,000
2022-08-12	CONSERVATIVE ACTION FUND	24A	$56,250
2022-08-11	CONSERVATIVE ACTION FUND	24A	$14,981
2022-08-11	CONSERVATIVE ACTION FUND	24A	$3,108
2022-08-08	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	24E	$16,326
2022-08-08	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	24E	$164,294
2022-08-05	CONSERVATIVE ACTION FUND	24A	$13,750
2022-08-05	CONSERVATIVE ACTION FUND	24A	$1,250
2022-08-05	CONSERVATIVE ACTION FUND	24A	$21,425
2022-08-03	GRAYROBINSON P.A. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$2,000
2022-07-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	24E	$9,638
2022-07-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	24E	$34,718
2022-07-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	24E	$72,004
2022-07-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	24E	$36,188
2022-07-22	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	24E	$43,253
2022-07-22	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	24E	$25,231
2022-07-21	SUSAN B. ANTHONY LIST. INC. CANDIDATE FUND (DBA…	24K	$5,000
2022-07-14	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	24E	$28,397
2022-07-14	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	24E	$34,945
2022-07-14	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	24E	$34,945
2022-07-06	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	24E	$27,023

Connected on the graph

Inbound (94)

date	from	type	amount	role	source
2022-08-18	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$60,000	24A	fec_pas2
2022-08-18	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$60,000		pas2
2022-08-18	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	opposes_independently	$60,000		fec_ies
2022-08-16	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,250		pas2
2022-08-16	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,250	24A	fec_pas2
2022-08-16	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	opposes_independently	$18,750		fec_ies
2022-08-16	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	opposes_independently	$1,250		fec_ies
2022-08-16	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$18,750	24A	fec_pas2
2022-08-16	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$18,750		pas2
2022-08-15	NEXTERA ENERGY, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000		pas2
2022-08-15	NEXTERA ENERGY, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$5,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-08-12	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$10,000	24A	fec_pas2
2022-08-12	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	opposes_independently	$10,000		fec_ies
2022-08-12	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	opposes_independently	$56,250		fec_ies
2022-08-12	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$10,000		pas2
2022-08-12	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$56,250		pas2
2022-08-12	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$56,250	24A	fec_pas2
2022-08-11	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$14,981		pas2
2022-08-11	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	opposes_independently	$14,982		fec_ies
2022-08-11	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$14,981	24A	fec_pas2
2022-08-11	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$3,108	24A	fec_pas2
2022-08-11	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$3,108		pas2
2022-08-11	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	opposes_independently	$3,108		fec_ies
2022-08-08	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$164,294	24E	fec_pas2
2022-08-08	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	contributed_to	$16,326		pas2
2022-08-08	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$16,326	24E	fec_pas2
2022-08-08	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	contributed_to	$164,294		pas2
2022-08-08	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	supports_independently	$164,294		fec_ies
2022-08-08	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	supports_independently	$16,326		fec_ies
2022-08-05	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	opposes_independently	$13,750		fec_ies
2022-08-05	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$21,425		pas2
2022-08-05	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,250		pas2
2022-08-05	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$13,750		pas2
2022-08-05	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$13,750	24A	fec_pas2
2022-08-05	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$21,425	24A	fec_pas2
2022-08-05	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,250	24A	fec_pas2
2022-08-05	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	opposes_independently	$1,250		fec_ies
2022-08-05	CONSERVATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE	opposes_independently	$21,425		fec_ies
2022-08-03	GRAYROBINSON P.A. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-08-03	GRAYROBINSON P.A. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,000		pas2
2022-07-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$34,718	24E	fec_pas2
2022-07-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	supports_independently	$72,005		fec_ies
2022-07-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$9,638	24E	fec_pas2
2022-07-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	supports_independently	$34,718		fec_ies
2022-07-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	supports_independently	$9,638		fec_ies
2022-07-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$72,004	24E	fec_pas2
2022-07-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	contributed_to	$72,004		pas2
2022-07-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	supports_independently	$36,188		fec_ies
2022-07-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	contributed_to	$36,188		pas2
2022-07-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	contributed_to	$34,718		pas2
2022-07-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	contributed_to	$9,638		pas2
2022-07-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$36,188	24E	fec_pas2
2022-07-22	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	contributed_to	$25,231		pas2
2022-07-22	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	contributed_to	$43,253		pas2
2022-07-22	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	supports_independently	$43,253		fec_ies
2022-07-22	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$25,231	24E	fec_pas2
2022-07-22	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$43,253	24E	fec_pas2
2022-07-22	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	supports_independently	$25,231		fec_ies
2022-07-21	SUSAN B. ANTHONY LIST. INC. CANDIDATE FUND (DBA SUSAN B. ANTHONY PRO-LIFE AMERICA CANDIDATE FUND)	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$5,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-07-21	SUSAN B. ANTHONY LIST. INC. CANDIDATE FUND (DBA SUSAN B. ANTHONY PRO-LIFE AMERICA CANDIDATE FUND)	contributed_to	$5,000		pas2
2022-07-14	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	supports_independently	$28,398		fec_ies
2022-07-14	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	contributed_to	$34,945		pas2
2022-07-14	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	contributed_to	$34,945		pas2
2022-07-14	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	supports_independently	$34,945		fec_ies
2022-07-14	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	contributed_to	$28,397		pas2
2022-07-14	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	supports_independently	$34,945		fec_ies
2022-07-14	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$34,945	24E	fec_pas2
2022-07-14	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$34,945	24E	fec_pas2
2022-07-14	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$28,397	24E	fec_pas2
2022-07-06	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	supports_independently	$7,163		fec_ies
2022-07-06	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	contributed_to	$7,163		pas2
2022-07-06	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	contributed_to	$27,023		pas2
2022-07-06	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	supports_independently	$27,023		fec_ies
2022-07-06	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$7,163	24E	fec_pas2
2022-07-06	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$27,023	24E	fec_pas2
2022-06-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	contributed_to	$27,023		pas2
2022-06-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$27,023	24E	fec_pas2
2022-06-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$27,023	24E	fec_pas2
2022-06-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$25,382	24E	fec_pas2
2022-06-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	contributed_to	$25,382		pas2
2022-06-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	supports_independently	$27,023		fec_ies
2022-06-30	PUBLIX SUPER MARKETS, INC. ASSOCIATES POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2022-06-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	supports_independently	$27,023		fec_ies
2022-06-30	PUBLIX SUPER MARKETS, INC. ASSOCIATES POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-06-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	supports_independently	$25,382		fec_ies
2022-06-30	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	contributed_to	$27,023		pas2
2022-06-29	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$8,291	24E	fec_pas2
2022-06-29	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	contributed_to	$8,291		pas2
2022-06-29	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	supports_independently	$8,291		fec_ies
2022-06-23	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	supports_independently	$248,577		fec_ies
2022-06-23	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$248,577	24E	fec_pas2
2022-06-23	CONSERVATIVE WARRIORS PAC	contributed_to	$248,577		pas2
2022-06-11	JM FAMILY ENTERPRISES, INC PAC	contributed_to	$2,000		pas2
2022-06-11	JM FAMILY ENTERPRISES, INC PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,000	24K	fec_pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	KELLI STARGEL FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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