ALCUBILLA, SERGIO JOSEPHUS MR. III

D · house

FEC candidate id: H2HI01112
Internal id: ccf2c9a6-9dd0-422b-b130-f06fe0550e83
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), HI-01. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	719,645
People	Median age	41
Income	Median household income	$104,305
Income	Per-capita income	$48,935
Income	In poverty	9.0%
Income	Unemployed	4.1%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.446
Race	White alone	15.8%
Race	Black alone	2.0%
Race	Asian alone	49.6%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	8.2%
Race	Two or more races	23.1%
Origin	Foreign-born	22.9%
Language	Speaks English only at home	70.8%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	1.7%
Education	High school or higher	63.4%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	39.9%
Education	Advanced degree	14.6%
Household	Family households	65.9%
Household	Avg household size	2.75
Household	Never married (15+)	34.9%
Housing	Median home value	$882,200
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,982
Housing	Single-family detached	40.3%
Housing	Built before 1940	3.4%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	9.1%
Housing	Vacant units	9.4%
Service	Veterans (18+)	8.3%
Health	With a disability	12.4%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	91.7%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	5.3%
Commute	Drove alone	62.1%
Commute	Public transit	5.6%
Commute	Worked from home	9.2%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2022	$107,257	$101,129	$6,129	$0	$107,081

Elections

2022 general house · HI-1 — lost_general

Committees

SERGIO ALCUBILLA FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-08-05	OUR HAWAII PAC	24E	$8,888
2022-07-21	UNITE HERE TIP CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE	24K	$2,500
2022-07-20	OUR HAWAII PAC	24E	$7,853
2022-07-20	OUR HAWAII PAC	24E	$7,498
2022-07-11	SAILORS' POLITICAL FUND, DON	24K	$500
2022-06-21	SAILORS' POLITICAL FUND, DON	24K	$500
2022-06-21	MARINE FIREMAN'S UNION POLITICAL ACTION FUND	24K	$1,000
2022-06-06	INTERNATIONAL LONGSHORE AND WAREHOUSE UNION -- …	24K	$1,500

Connected on the graph

Inbound (8)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-08-05	OUR HAWAII PAC	contributed_to	$8,888	pas2
2022-07-21	UNITE HERE TIP CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-07-20	OUR HAWAII PAC	contributed_to	$7,853	pas2
2022-07-20	OUR HAWAII PAC	contributed_to	$7,498	pas2
2022-07-11	SAILORS' POLITICAL FUND, DON	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-06-21	MARINE FIREMAN'S UNION POLITICAL ACTION FUND	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-06-21	SAILORS' POLITICAL FUND, DON	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-06-06	INTERNATIONAL LONGSHORE AND WAREHOUSE UNION -- POLITICAL ACTION FUND	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	SERGIO ALCUBILLA FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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