DEERING, REGAN

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2IL13179
Internal id: 7b85b8b6-8013-429d-a285-6a3a492f4cdc
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), IL-13. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	747,221
People	Median age	37
Income	Median household income	$63,106
Income	Per-capita income	$36,554
Income	In poverty	17.5%
Income	Unemployed	5.8%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.473
Race	White alone	67.5%
Race	Black alone	19.2%
Race	Asian alone	4.2%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	5.1%
Race	Two or more races	7.3%
Origin	Foreign-born	5.9%
Language	Speaks English only at home	91.8%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	2.9%
Education	High school or higher	61.9%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	32.3%
Education	Advanced degree	14.2%
Household	Family households	55.0%
Household	Avg household size	2.28
Household	Never married (15+)	40.7%
Housing	Median home value	$154,500
Housing	Median gross rent	$999
Housing	Single-family detached	67.5%
Housing	Built before 1940	7.2%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.5%
Housing	Vacant units	12.2%
Service	Veterans (18+)	6.8%
Health	With a disability	14.8%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	89.3%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	6.9%
Commute	Drove alone	73.2%
Commute	Public transit	2.0%
Commute	Worked from home	12.8%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$-112	$4,545	$0	$0	$-112
2022	$2,096,673	$2,092,016	$4,657	$1,000,000	$705,338

Elections

2022 general house · IL-13 — lost_general

Committees

DEERING FOR IL-13 — principal · type H
REGAN4CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$109,565	$3,201,533	50

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC.	support	$750	Creation of micro-site
—	DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC.	support	$50,000	Placement of digital ad
—	DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC.	support	$1,000	Creative for digital ad
—	HMP	oppose	$158,950	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$17,949	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$3,750	Text Messages - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$3,750	Text Messages - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$17,885	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$765,283	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$101,250	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$158,950	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$138,400	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$677,613	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$76,250	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$23,954	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$13,500	Digital Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$107,525	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$30,936	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$47,500	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$47,500	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$14,025	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$14,025	Television Advertising - Estimate
2022-11-05	LATE BREAKERS PAC	oppose	$526	Online Advertisements
2022-11-04	LATE BREAKERS PAC	oppose	$526	Online Advertisements
2022-11-03	LATE BREAKERS PAC	oppose	$526	Online Advertisements

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
—	ILLINOIS AGRICULTURAL ASSOCIATION ACTIVATOR POL…	24E	$1,000
—	HMP	24A	$14,025
2022-12-30	HANSON PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC PAC	24Z	$767
2022-12-27	WINRED	24K	$-16
2022-12-26	WINRED	24K	$-1
2022-12-22	WINRED	24K	$-3
2022-12-22	WINRED	24K	$-4
2022-12-21	WINRED	24K	$-5
2022-12-16	WINRED	24K	$-40
2022-12-16	WINRED	24K	$-80
2022-12-16	WINRED	24K	$-40
2022-12-10	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-12-08	WINRED	24K	$-20
2022-12-07	ILLINOIS AGRICULTURAL ASSOCIATION ACTIVATOR POL…	24E	$560
2022-12-06	WINRED	24K	$-12
2022-12-06	WINRED	24K	$-16
2022-12-05	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-12-01	WINRED	24K	$-4
2022-11-28	WINRED	24K	$-93
2022-11-28	WINRED	24K	$-250
2022-11-28	WINRED	24K	$-1
2022-11-28	WINRED	24K	$-5
2022-11-28	WINRED	24K	$-250
2022-11-28	WINRED	24K	$-200
2022-11-22	WINRED	24K	$-8

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	HMP	contributed_to	$14,025	pas2
—	ILLINOIS AGRICULTURAL ASSOCIATION ACTIVATOR POLITICAL INVOLVEMENT FUND (FED) 'ACTIVATOR'/'ILLINOIS FARM BUREAU ACTIVATOR'	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$76,250	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$17,949	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$765,283	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$17,885	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$158,950	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$14,025	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$3,750	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$30,936	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$3,750	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$47,500	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$23,954	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$138,400	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$101,250	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$107,525	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$13,500	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$158,950	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$14,025	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$677,613	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$47,500	fec_ies
—	DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC.	supports_independently	$1,000	fec_ies
—	DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC.	supports_independently	$50,000	fec_ies
—	DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC.	supports_independently	$750	fec_ies
2022-12-30	HANSON PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC PAC	contributed_to	$767	pas2
2022-12-27	WINRED	contributed_to	$-16	pas2
2022-12-26	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1	pas2
2022-12-22	WINRED	contributed_to	$-3	pas2
2022-12-22	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-12-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-12-16	WINRED	contributed_to	$-40	pas2
2022-12-16	WINRED	contributed_to	$-40	pas2
2022-12-16	WINRED	contributed_to	$-80	pas2
2022-12-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-12-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-20	pas2
2022-12-07	ILLINOIS AGRICULTURAL ASSOCIATION ACTIVATOR POLITICAL INVOLVEMENT FUND (FED) 'ACTIVATOR'/'ILLINOIS FARM BUREAU ACTIVATOR'	contributed_to	$560	pas2
2022-12-06	WINRED	contributed_to	$-12	pas2
2022-12-06	WINRED	contributed_to	$-16	pas2
2022-12-05	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-12-01	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-11-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-250	pas2
2022-11-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-93	pas2
2022-11-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-11-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-250	pas2
2022-11-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1	pas2
2022-11-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-200	pas2
2022-11-22	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-11-22	WINRED	contributed_to	$-7	pas2
2022-11-22	WINRED	contributed_to	$-8	pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-11-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$-8	pas2
2022-11-11	DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC.	contributed_to	$2	pas2
2022-11-11	WINRED	contributed_to	$-500	pas2
2022-11-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$-3	pas2
2022-11-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$-8	pas2
2022-11-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$-6	pas2
2022-11-09	WINRED	contributed_to	$-500	pas2
2022-11-08	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF TEACHERS AFL-CIO	contributed_to	$711	pas2
2022-11-08	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	contributed_to	$1,273	pas2
2022-11-08	LATE BREAKERS PAC	contributed_to	$526	pas2
2022-11-07	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1	pas2
2022-11-07	LATE BREAKERS PAC	contributed_to	$526	pas2
2022-11-07	GUEST PAC	contributed_to	$250	pas2
2022-11-07	MAKING AMERICA PROSPEROUS PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-11-06	LATE BREAKERS PAC	contributed_to	$526	pas2
2022-11-05	LATE BREAKERS PAC	contributed_to	$526	pas2
2022-11-05	LATE BREAKERS PAC	opposes_independently	$526	fec_ies
2022-11-04	PATRIOT POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-11-04	LATE BREAKERS PAC	contributed_to	$526	pas2
2022-11-04	LATE BREAKERS PAC	opposes_independently	$526	fec_ies
2022-11-03	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-11-03	PROVEN CONSERVATIVES PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-11-03	LATE BREAKERS PAC	contributed_to	$526	pas2
2022-11-03	STAR PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-11-03	LATE BREAKERS PAC	opposes_independently	$526	fec_ies
2022-11-02	LATE BREAKERS PAC	contributed_to	$526	pas2
2022-11-02	LATE BREAKERS PAC	opposes_independently	$526	fec_ies
2022-11-02	HMP	contributed_to	$17,885	pas2
2022-11-01	BYRON DONALDS FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-11-01	LATE BREAKERS PAC	opposes_independently	$526	fec_ies
2022-11-01	HMP	contributed_to	$13,500	pas2
2022-11-01	LATE BREAKERS PAC	contributed_to	$526	pas2
2022-11-01	HMP	contributed_to	$765,283	pas2
2022-10-31	A NEW NATION PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-31	LATE BREAKERS PAC	opposes_independently	$526	fec_ies
2022-10-31	HANSON PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-31	NATIONAL FEDERATION OF INDEPENDENT BUSINESS	contributed_to	$5	pas2
2022-10-31	LATE BREAKERS PAC	contributed_to	$526	pas2
2022-10-31	HMP	contributed_to	$3,750	pas2
2022-10-31	HMP	contributed_to	$101,250	pas2
2022-10-31	THE COUNCIL OF INSURANCE AGENTS & BROKERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-10-30	WINRED	contributed_to	$-200	pas2
2022-10-30	LATE BREAKERS PAC	contributed_to	$526	pas2
2022-10-30	LATE BREAKERS PAC	opposes_independently	$526	fec_ies
2022-10-29	LATE BREAKERS PAC	contributed_to	$526	pas2
2022-10-29	LATE BREAKERS PAC	opposes_independently	$526	fec_ies
2022-10-28	LATE BREAKERS PAC	opposes_independently	$526	fec_ies
2022-10-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-10-28	LATE BREAKERS PAC	contributed_to	$526	pas2
2022-10-28	HMP	contributed_to	$3,750	pas2

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	REGAN4CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	DEERING FOR IL-13	—		candidate_committees

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