RAY, STUART N.

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2KY03214
Internal id: 1a35e162-f112-48ab-84ec-756138392483
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), KY-03. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	748,522
People	Median age	38
Income	Median household income	$68,047
Income	Per-capita income	$40,938
Income	In poverty	14.8%
Income	Unemployed	5.3%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.478
Race	White alone	62.4%
Race	Black alone	21.4%
Race	Asian alone	3.0%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	8.8%
Race	Two or more races	10.4%
Origin	Foreign-born	10.1%
Language	Speaks English only at home	87.0%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	6.9%
Education	High school or higher	62.3%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	36.0%
Education	Advanced degree	15.0%
Household	Family households	57.2%
Household	Avg household size	2.30
Household	Never married (15+)	37.0%
Housing	Median home value	$239,900
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,147
Housing	Single-family detached	63.2%
Housing	Built before 1940	6.4%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.0%
Housing	Vacant units	8.0%
Service	Veterans (18+)	6.2%
Health	With a disability	14.7%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	90.7%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	6.4%
Commute	Drove alone	72.4%
Commute	Public transit	1.6%
Commute	Worked from home	13.8%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$0	$1,733	$0	$103,651	$0
2022	$622,973	$621,241	$1,733	$104,200	$490,107

Elections

2022 general house · KY-3 — lost_general

Committees

STUART RAY FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-12-20	WINRED	24K	$-100
2022-10-21	WINRED	24K	$-10
2022-10-20	MAJORITY COMMITTEE PAC--MC PAC	24K	$5,000
2022-10-17	CREATING OPPORTUNITIES, MARKETS AND ENTHUSIASM …	24K	$1,000
2022-09-30	REINVENTING A NEW DIRECTION POLITICAL ACTION CO…	24K	$5,000
2022-09-28	BRINGING REPUBLICAN EXCELLENCE TO TOWN PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-09-27	WINRED	24K	$-10
2022-08-19	BUILDING AMERICA'S REPUBLICAN REPRESENTATION PAC	24K	$2,500
2022-07-11	WINRED	24K	$-10
2022-06-02	BLUEGRASS COMMITTEE	24K	$5,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (10)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-12-20	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100	pas2
2022-10-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-10-20	MAJORITY COMMITTEE PAC--MC PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-10-17	CREATING OPPORTUNITIES, MARKETS AND ENTHUSIASM IN RURAL KENTUCKY PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-30	REINVENTING A NEW DIRECTION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-09-28	BRINGING REPUBLICAN EXCELLENCE TO TOWN PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-27	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-08-19	BUILDING AMERICA'S REPUBLICAN REPRESENTATION PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-07-11	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-06-02	BLUEGRASS COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	STUART RAY FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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