DAVIS, GEOFFREY C.

R · house · bioguide D000603

FEC candidate id: H2KY04071
Internal id: 7b5b983c-c643-4100-be24-acc2b53bbbf3
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), KY-04. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	762,319
People	Median age	39
Income	Median household income	$80,457
Income	Per-capita income	$41,905
Income	In poverty	11.1%
Income	Unemployed	4.2%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.459
Race	White alone	87.8%
Race	Black alone	3.1%
Race	Asian alone	1.2%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	4.5%
Race	Two or more races	5.9%
Origin	Foreign-born	3.7%
Language	Speaks English only at home	94.7%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	2.9%
Education	High school or higher	63.3%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	32.0%
Education	Advanced degree	12.3%
Household	Family households	67.5%
Household	Avg household size	2.56
Household	Never married (15+)	29.0%
Housing	Median home value	$246,500
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,048
Housing	Single-family detached	71.4%
Housing	Built before 1940	3.5%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.0%
Housing	Vacant units	7.7%
Service	Veterans (18+)	6.6%
Health	With a disability	14.4%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	90.6%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	7.2%
Commute	Drove alone	76.1%
Commute	Public transit	0.5%
Commute	Worked from home	12.8%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2014	$0	$18,766	$0	$0	$0
2012	$528,416	$936,385	$18,766	$0	$47,792
2010	$1,676,564	$1,600,179	$426,735	$0	$453,455
2008	$2,100,357	$1,811,174	$350,350	$85,400	$1,090,504
2006	$4,198,795	$4,255,385	$61,167	$85,400	$2,110,475
2004	$3,076,564	$2,959,533	$117,757	$214,067	$1,477,401
2002	$875,181	$874,456	$725	$150,628	$489,933

Elections

2002 general house · KY-4 — won
2004 general house · KY-4 — won
2006 general house · KY-4 — won
2008 general house · KY-4 — won
2010 general house · KY-4 — won
2012 general house · KY-4 — lost_general

Committees

2004 JOINT CANDIDATE COMMITTEE II — joint_fundraising · type N
2006 JOINT CANDIDATE COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type N
DAVIS-KENTUCKY VICTORY COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type N
GEOFF DAVIS FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
KY 04 CONGRESSIONAL VICTORY COMMITTEE — principal · type H
MIDWEST ROMP — joint_fundraising · type N
ROMP III 2006 — joint_fundraising · type H

Recent votes

No votes on file.

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (8)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	cosponsor_of_bill	HR 2730 — United States-Israel Energy Cooperation Act	—	cosponsor	sponsorship
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	2004 JOINT CANDIDATE COMMITTEE II	—		candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	MIDWEST ROMP	—		candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	ROMP III 2006	—		candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	2006 JOINT CANDIDATE COMMITTEE	—		candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	DAVIS-KENTUCKY VICTORY COMMITTEE	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	KY 04 CONGRESSIONAL VICTORY COMMITTEE	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	GEOFF DAVIS FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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