BERNARD, CLASTON

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2LA02206
Internal id: e2e605e9-9a30-4fd0-956e-9451d689ccb8
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), LA-02. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	763,550
People	Median age	38
Income	Median household income	$55,374
Income	Per-capita income	$33,012
Income	In poverty	21.1%
Income	Unemployed	7.8%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.504
Race	White alone	34.0%
Race	Black alone	50.0%
Race	Asian alone	2.6%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	10.6%
Race	Two or more races	8.4%
Origin	Foreign-born	8.1%
Language	Speaks English only at home	87.6%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	7.9%
Education	High school or higher	56.8%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	27.6%
Education	Advanced degree	11.1%
Household	Family households	57.9%
Household	Avg household size	2.47
Household	Never married (15+)	42.7%
Housing	Median home value	$227,800
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,183
Housing	Single-family detached	58.6%
Housing	Built before 1940	5.0%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.3%
Housing	Vacant units	15.0%
Service	Veterans (18+)	5.1%
Health	With a disability	16.1%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	86.2%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	10.6%
Commute	Drove alone	72.0%
Commute	Public transit	2.6%
Commute	Worked from home	9.9%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$0	$0	$0	$26,060	$0
2024	$1,653	$6,156	$0	$0	$0
2022	$200,720	$196,217	$4,503	$28,897	$165,712

Elections

2021 general house · LA-2 — lost_general

Committees

BERNARD FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$36,000	$0	3

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	ELBERT GUILLORY'S AMERICA	support	$25,000	IE Media Production/Placement
—	GATORPAC	support	$4,000	Text Message Voter Contact
—	GATORPAC	support	$7,000	Text Message Voter Contact

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
—	ELBERT GUILLORY'S AMERICA	24E	$25,000
2021-04-21	MAJORITY COMMITTEE PAC--MC PAC	24K	$5,000
2021-04-12	THE EYE OF THE TIGER POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$5,000
2021-03-29	DO RIGHT BAYOU PAC	24K	$2,500
2021-03-24	UNITE AND PROSPER	24E	$4,600
2021-03-21	GATORPAC	24E	$7,000
2021-03-20	GATORPAC	24E	$4,000
2021-03-19	WINRED	24K	$25
2021-03-18	GATORPAC	24K	$4,000
2021-03-15	BLACK AMERICA'S POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$1,000
2021-03-10	WINRED	24K	$5,800
2021-02-24	ELBERT GUILLORY'S AMERICA	24K	$5,000
2021-02-19	GATORPAC	24K	$1,000
2021-02-15	CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP POLITICAL ACTION COMMIT…	24K	$5,000
2021-02-08	REPUBLICAN PARTY OF LOUISIANA	24K	$2,500

Connected on the graph

Inbound (18)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	ELBERT GUILLORY'S AMERICA	contributed_to	$25,000	pas2
—	GATORPAC	supports_independently	$4,000	fec_ies
—	GATORPAC	supports_independently	$7,000	fec_ies
—	ELBERT GUILLORY'S AMERICA	supports_independently	$25,000	fec_ies
2021-04-21	MAJORITY COMMITTEE PAC--MC PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-04-12	THE EYE OF THE TIGER POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-03-29	DO RIGHT BAYOU PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2021-03-24	UNITE AND PROSPER	contributed_to	$4,600	pas2
2021-03-21	GATORPAC	contributed_to	$7,000	pas2
2021-03-20	GATORPAC	contributed_to	$4,000	pas2
2021-03-19	WINRED	contributed_to	$25	pas2
2021-03-18	GATORPAC	contributed_to	$4,000	pas2
2021-03-15	BLACK AMERICA'S POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-03-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$5,800	pas2
2021-02-24	ELBERT GUILLORY'S AMERICA	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-02-19	GATORPAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-02-15	CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-02-08	REPUBLICAN PARTY OF LOUISIANA	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	BERNARD FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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