MICHAEL, CASSIDY

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2MS03151
Internal id: 535e8425-5606-4b4f-b529-7682ca2d22d5
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MS-03. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	738,402
People	Median age	39
Income	Median household income	$60,128
Income	Per-capita income	$33,941
Income	In poverty	18.0%
Income	Unemployed	5.0%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.488
Race	White alone	58.9%
Race	Black alone	33.5%
Race	Asian alone	1.2%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	3.0%
Race	Two or more races	3.8%
Origin	Foreign-born	2.4%
Language	Speaks English only at home	95.4%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	2.4%
Education	High school or higher	56.8%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	28.9%
Education	Advanced degree	11.8%
Household	Family households	65.7%
Household	Avg household size	2.50
Household	Never married (15+)	33.4%
Housing	Median home value	$175,000
Housing	Median gross rent	$992
Housing	Single-family detached	66.7%
Housing	Built before 1940	2.5%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.9%
Housing	Vacant units	13.5%
Service	Veterans (18+)	6.1%
Health	With a disability	17.2%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	85.0%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	11.9%
Commute	Drove alone	81.9%
Commute	Public transit	0.3%
Commute	Worked from home	5.9%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2022	$416,069	$416,069	$0	$0	$117,724

Elections

2022 general house · MS-3 — lost_general

Committees

MICHAEL CASSIDY FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$5,605	$90,619	10

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2022-06-24	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	oppose	$6,003	Radio - 6/25-6/28
2022-06-24	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	oppose	$3,000	Phones/Texts
2022-06-24	MS CONSERVATIVE ACTION PAC	oppose	$1,999	Radio Advertisement
2022-06-23	MAGNOLIA MAGA PAC	support	$4,975	Media Placement
2022-06-22	GATORPAC	support	$630	Emailing List
2022-06-22	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	oppose	$22,054	Mail
2022-06-21	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	oppose	$16,511	Mail
2022-06-17	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	oppose	$10,000	Digital advertising - 6/17-6/28
2022-06-17	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	oppose	$24,220	Mail
2022-06-15	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	oppose	$6,831	Radio adverstisement

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-08-12	WINRED	24K	$-2
2022-06-28	MS CONSERVATIVE ACTION PAC	24A	$691
2022-06-28	CLF	24A	$3,091
2022-06-27	MS CONSERVATIVE ACTION PAC	24A	$972
2022-06-24	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	24A	$6,003
2022-06-24	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	24A	$3,000
2022-06-24	MS CONSERVATIVE ACTION PAC	24A	$1,999
2022-06-24	CLF	24A	$33,560
2022-06-23	MAGNOLIA MAGA PAC	24E	$4,975
2022-06-23	CLF	24A	$6,579
2022-06-22	CLF	24A	$21,000
2022-06-22	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	24A	$22,054
2022-06-22	GATORPAC	24E	$630
2022-06-22	CLF	24A	$5,500
2022-06-21	CLF	24A	$32,100
2022-06-21	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	24A	$16,511
2022-06-21	CLF	24A	$32,100
2022-06-17	CLF	24A	$32,100
2022-06-17	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	24A	$24,220
2022-06-17	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	24A	$10,000
2022-06-15	CLF	24A	$340,972
2022-06-15	CLF	24A	$11,511
2022-06-15	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	24A	$6,831
2022-03-27	KEEP ELECTING NEW TALENT PAC	24K	$2,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (34)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-08-12	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2	pas2
2022-06-28	MS CONSERVATIVE ACTION PAC	contributed_to	$691	pas2
2022-06-28	CLF	contributed_to	$3,091	pas2
2022-06-27	MS CONSERVATIVE ACTION PAC	contributed_to	$972	pas2
2022-06-24	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$3,000	fec_ies
2022-06-24	CLF	contributed_to	$33,560	pas2
2022-06-24	MS CONSERVATIVE ACTION PAC	opposes_independently	$1,999	fec_ies
2022-06-24	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$6,003	fec_ies
2022-06-24	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$3,000	pas2
2022-06-24	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$6,003	pas2
2022-06-24	MS CONSERVATIVE ACTION PAC	contributed_to	$1,999	pas2
2022-06-23	MAGNOLIA MAGA PAC	supports_independently	$4,975	fec_ies
2022-06-23	MAGNOLIA MAGA PAC	contributed_to	$4,975	pas2
2022-06-23	CLF	contributed_to	$6,579	pas2
2022-06-22	CLF	contributed_to	$5,500	pas2
2022-06-22	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$22,054	fec_ies
2022-06-22	GATORPAC	supports_independently	$630	fec_ies
2022-06-22	CLF	contributed_to	$21,000	pas2
2022-06-22	GATORPAC	contributed_to	$630	pas2
2022-06-22	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$22,054	pas2
2022-06-21	CLF	contributed_to	$32,100	pas2
2022-06-21	CLF	contributed_to	$32,100	pas2
2022-06-21	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$16,511	fec_ies
2022-06-21	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$16,511	pas2
2022-06-17	CLF	contributed_to	$32,100	pas2
2022-06-17	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$24,220	fec_ies
2022-06-17	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2022-06-17	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$24,220	pas2
2022-06-17	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$10,000	pas2
2022-06-15	CLF	contributed_to	$340,972	pas2
2022-06-15	CLF	contributed_to	$11,511	pas2
2022-06-15	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$6,831	pas2
2022-06-15	MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$6,831	fec_ies
2022-03-27	KEEP ELECTING NEW TALENT PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	MICHAEL CASSIDY FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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