WAGNER, CLAY

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2MS04274
Internal id: 25c277d8-8400-410f-ba16-bc65c76c0972
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MS-04. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	748,399
People	Median age	39
Income	Median household income	$60,376
Income	Per-capita income	$32,956
Income	In poverty	16.7%
Income	Unemployed	6.2%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.471
Race	White alone	67.7%
Race	Black alone	21.8%
Race	Asian alone	1.5%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	5.6%
Race	Two or more races	6.4%
Origin	Foreign-born	3.1%
Language	Speaks English only at home	94.8%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	3.4%
Education	High school or higher	55.1%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	25.5%
Education	Advanced degree	9.7%
Household	Family households	66.0%
Household	Avg household size	2.50
Household	Never married (15+)	30.6%
Housing	Median home value	$189,500
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,037
Housing	Single-family detached	69.5%
Housing	Built before 1940	2.7%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.3%
Housing	Vacant units	11.9%
Service	Veterans (18+)	9.5%
Health	With a disability	20.1%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	86.7%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	10.7%
Commute	Drove alone	80.1%
Commute	Public transit	0.2%
Commute	Worked from home	6.5%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$0	$0	$0	$292,415	$0
2024	$0	$0	$0	$292,415	$0
2022	$551,979	$551,979	$0	$292,415	$250,479

Elections

2022 general house · MS-4 — lost_general

Committees

CLAY WAGNER FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$0	$18,000	2

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2022-06-03	CONSERVATIVE CHAMPIONS PAC	oppose	$2,833	MEDIA PRODUCTION
2022-06-03	CONSERVATIVE CHAMPIONS PAC	oppose	$15,167	MEDIA PLACEMENT

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-06-03	CONSERVATIVE CHAMPIONS PAC	24A	$2,833
2022-06-03	CONSERVATIVE CHAMPIONS PAC	24A	$15,166
2021-10-06	GULF COAST BANK & TRUST WAVE PAC	24K	$1,500

Connected on the graph

Inbound (5)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-06-03	CONSERVATIVE CHAMPIONS PAC	opposes_independently	$2,833	fec_ies
2022-06-03	CONSERVATIVE CHAMPIONS PAC	opposes_independently	$15,167	fec_ies
2022-06-03	CONSERVATIVE CHAMPIONS PAC	contributed_to	$15,166	pas2
2022-06-03	CONSERVATIVE CHAMPIONS PAC	contributed_to	$2,833	pas2
2021-10-06	GULF COAST BANK & TRUST WAVE PAC	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	CLAY WAGNER FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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