ABARR, JOHN ALLEN
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H2MT00039- Internal id
5405d66f-782e-453d-84bd-03f290bec251- Status
- open seat
Elections
No elections on file.
Committees
- FRIENDS OF JOHN ABARR β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | FRIENDS OF JOHN ABARR | β | candidate_committees |