TRANEL, MONICA
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H2MT02092- Internal id
53fa9d81-6f99-415d-90db-9d36b038be13- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MT-01. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 564,861 |
| People | Median age | 40 |
| Income | Median household income | $73,598 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $43,045 |
| Income | In poverty | 11.4% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.4% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.475 |
| Race | White alone | 86.4% |
| Race | Black alone | 0.3% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.0% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 4.4% |
| Race | Two or more races | 6.9% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 2.8% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 95.6% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 1.7% |
| Education | High school or higher | 64.0% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 38.8% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 14.1% |
| Household | Family households | 59.2% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.36 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 32.0% |
| Housing | Median home value | $466,200 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,174 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 67.7% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 3.6% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.0% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 13.9% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 8.6% |
| Health | With a disability | 13.9% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 90.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 6.8% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 69.8% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.6% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 14.3% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $36,193 | $66,489 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2024 | $6,225,655 | $6,205,246 | $30,295 | $0 | $5,352,239 |
| 2022 | $3,088,635 | $3,088,635 | $0 | $0 | $2,957,338 |
Elections
Committees
- MONICA TRANEL FOR MONTANA β principal Β· type H
- MONICA TRANEL FOR MONTANA β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $458,059 | $189,500 | 596 |
| 2022 | $0 | $939,180 | 8 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | YOUR COMMUNITY PAC | support | $124,500 | Canvassing (Estimate) |
| β | YOUR COMMUNITY PAC | support | $103,750 | Canvassing (Estimate) |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $23 | Voter outreach |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $85 | Voter outreach |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $61 | Voter outreach |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $77 | Voter outreach |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $77 | Voter outreach |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $80 | Voter outreach |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $82 | Voter outreach |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $85 | Voter outreach |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $106 | Voter outreach |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $115 | Voter outreach |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $785 | Calling tool |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $115 | Voter outreach |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $785 | Calling tool |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $23 | Voter outreach |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $26 | Voter outreach |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $61 | Voter outreach |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $77 | Voter outreach |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $77 | Voter outreach |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $80 | Voter outreach |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $82 | Voter outreach |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION | support | $26 | Voter outreach |
| 2024-10-25 | YOUR COMMUNITY PAC | support | $23,277 | Canvassing (Estimate) |
| 2024-10-19 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | support | $5 | Advertisement management services for 'Olympians' |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
Connected on the graph
Inbound (100)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | MONTANA REPUBLICAN STATE CENTRAL COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $2,500 | pas2 | |
| β | YOUR COMMUNITY PAC | supports_independently | $103,750 | fec_ies | |
| β | YOUR COMMUNITY PAC | supports_independently | $124,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $82 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $26 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $85 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $80 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $785 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $85 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $82 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $106 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $23 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $77 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $61 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $77 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $80 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $77 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $115 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $26 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $77 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $115 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $23 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $61 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | FOOD AND WATER ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $785 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-25 | YOUR COMMUNITY PAC | supports_independently | $23,277 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-19 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-19 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $497 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-18 | YOUR COMMUNITY PAC | supports_independently | $35,008 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-18 | YOUR COMMUNITY PAC | supports_independently | $754 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-18 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $498 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-18 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-17 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $483 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-17 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $483 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-17 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-17 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-17 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $483 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-17 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-16 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-16 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $518 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-16 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $518 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-16 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | opposes_independently | $45,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-16 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $518 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-16 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-16 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-15 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-15 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $487 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-15 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-15 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $487 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-15 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $487 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-15 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-14 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-14 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $518 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-14 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-14 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-14 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $518 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-14 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $518 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-13 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-13 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $559 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-13 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $559 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-13 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $559 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-13 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-13 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-12 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $527 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-12 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-12 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-12 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-12 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $527 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-12 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $527 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-11 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $346 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-11 | MAKE MONTANA GREAT | opposes_independently | $50,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-11 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-11 | YOUR COMMUNITY PAC | supports_independently | $600 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-11 | YOUR COMMUNITY PAC | supports_independently | $30,950 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-11 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $346 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-11 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-11 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $346 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-11 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-10 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $10 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $6 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $10 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $10 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $6 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $10 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $10 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $6 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $10 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $5 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-08 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $68 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-08 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $68 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-08 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $18 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-08 | PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND | supports_independently | $18 | fec_ies |
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | MONICA TRANEL FOR MONTANA | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | MONICA TRANEL FOR MONTANA | β | candidate_committees |