BURNS, ROBERT ANDREW MR.

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2NH00025
Internal id: 9a82de6a-8735-469c-972c-0edcc79577cf
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NH-02. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	696,422
People	Median age	44
Income	Median household income	$97,382
Income	Per-capita income	$51,941
Income	In poverty	7.5%
Income	Unemployed	3.4%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.450
Race	White alone	88.1%
Race	Black alone	1.4%
Race	Asian alone	2.6%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	4.5%
Race	Two or more races	6.3%
Origin	Foreign-born	6.3%
Language	Speaks English only at home	92.2%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	2.5%
Education	High school or higher	67.9%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	39.8%
Education	Advanced degree	16.8%
Household	Family households	65.1%
Household	Avg household size	2.45
Household	Never married (15+)	30.0%
Housing	Median home value	$376,200
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,415
Housing	Single-family detached	66.0%
Housing	Built before 1940	3.3%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.5%
Housing	Vacant units	14.5%
Service	Veterans (18+)	7.8%
Health	With a disability	13.5%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	92.3%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	5.5%
Commute	Drove alone	72.2%
Commute	Public transit	0.5%
Commute	Worked from home	16.4%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$5,168	$7,486	$0	$0	$0
2022	$401,646	$399,328	$2,318	$0	$176,619

Elections

2022 general house · NH-2 — lost_general

Committees

BURNS FOR NH — principal · type H
BURNS FOR NH-02 — principal · type H
BURNS FOR NH-02 REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FUND 2022 — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$3,115	$2,158,616	13

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	HMP	oppose	$1,073,445	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$9,775	Media Production - Estimate
2022-10-24	NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND	support	$3,115	IE-Burns, Robert-Direct Mail
2022-09-06	DEMOCRATS SERVE	oppose	$4,451	Media Production
2022-09-06	DEMOCRATS SERVE	oppose	$444,125	Advertising - TV
2022-09-06	DEMOCRATS SERVE	oppose	$495	Media Production
2022-09-06	DEMOCRATS SERVE	oppose	$4,451	Media Production
2022-09-06	AMERICAN LIBERTY ACTION PAC	oppose	$24,000	TEXT MESSAGES
2022-09-06	DEMOCRATS SERVE	oppose	$444,125	Advertising - TV
2022-09-02	AMERICAN LIBERTY ACTION PAC	oppose	$41,000	DIGITAL ADVERTISING
2022-09-01	DEMOCRATS SERVE	oppose	$12,438	Advertising - Online
2022-08-29	DEMOCRATS SERVE	oppose	$12,412	Advertising - Online
2022-08-26	DEMOCRATS SERVE	oppose	$87,899	Advertising - TV

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-11-16	WINRED	24K	$-50
2022-11-11	DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC.	24E	$2
2022-11-03	CONSERVATIVE PROMISES PAC	24K	$4,000
2022-11-01	GREAT AMERICA COMMITTEE	24K	$1,000
2022-10-31	NO EASY DAY PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-10-20	NATIONAL PRO-LIFE ALLIANCE PAC	24K	$5,000
2022-10-17	BE VICTORIOUS OVER DEMOCRATS PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-10-12	THE NATIONAL RIGHT TO WORK COMMITTEE PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-10-11	INVEST IN A STRONG AND SECURE AMERICA	24K	$500
2022-10-05	AMERICAN GRIT PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-09-26	CITIZENS UNITED POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	24K	$1,000
2022-09-23	HUCK PAC FOR AMERICA	24K	$5,000
2022-09-20	NRCC	24K	$5,000
2022-08-24	NH LEADERSHIP PAC	24K	$1,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (27)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$9,775	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$1,073,445	fec_ies
2022-11-16	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50	pas2
2022-11-11	DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC.	contributed_to	$2	pas2
2022-11-03	CONSERVATIVE PROMISES PAC	contributed_to	$4,000	pas2
2022-11-01	GREAT AMERICA COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-31	NO EASY DAY PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-24	NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$3,115	fec_ies
2022-10-20	NATIONAL PRO-LIFE ALLIANCE PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-10-17	BE VICTORIOUS OVER DEMOCRATS PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-12	NATIONAL RIGHT TO WORK PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-11	INVEST IN A STRONG AND SECURE AMERICA	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-10-05	AMERICAN GRIT PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-26	CITIZENS UNITED POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-23	HUCK PAC FOR AMERICA	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-09-20	NRCC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-09-06	DEMOCRATS SERVE	opposes_independently	$4,451	fec_ies
2022-09-06	DEMOCRATS SERVE	opposes_independently	$444,125	fec_ies
2022-09-06	DEMOCRATS SERVE	opposes_independently	$495	fec_ies
2022-09-06	DEMOCRATS SERVE	opposes_independently	$4,451	fec_ies
2022-09-06	AMERICAN LIBERTY ACTION PAC	opposes_independently	$24,000	fec_ies
2022-09-06	DEMOCRATS SERVE	opposes_independently	$444,125	fec_ies
2022-09-02	AMERICAN LIBERTY ACTION PAC	opposes_independently	$41,000	fec_ies
2022-09-01	DEMOCRATS SERVE	opposes_independently	$12,438	fec_ies
2022-08-29	DEMOCRATS SERVE	opposes_independently	$12,412	fec_ies
2022-08-26	DEMOCRATS SERVE	opposes_independently	$87,899	fec_ies
2022-08-24	NH LEADERSHIP PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2

Outbound (3)

date	type	to	amount	source
—	principal_candidate_of	BURNS FOR NH-02	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	BURNS FOR NH-02 REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FUND 2022	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	BURNS FOR NH	—	candidate_committees

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