DEGROOT, PAUL

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2NJ11186
Internal id: 70b3847b-aa5f-421c-9f20-8fcac9308a49
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NJ-11. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	779,403
People	Median age	42
Income	Median household income	$137,244
Income	Per-capita income	$72,260
Income	In poverty	5.0%
Income	Unemployed	5.5%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.471
Race	White alone	62.9%
Race	Black alone	5.5%
Race	Asian alone	12.1%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	17.5%
Race	Two or more races	12.4%
Origin	Foreign-born	21.7%
Language	Speaks English only at home	70.4%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	12.6%
Education	High school or higher	77.3%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	59.2%
Education	Advanced degree	26.3%
Household	Family households	70.4%
Household	Avg household size	2.64
Household	Never married (15+)	30.8%
Housing	Median home value	$615,700
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,931
Housing	Single-family detached	61.2%
Housing	Built before 1940	7.7%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.0%
Housing	Vacant units	3.2%
Service	Veterans (18+)	3.0%
Health	With a disability	8.7%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	95.0%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	3.3%
Commute	Drove alone	60.8%
Commute	Public transit	7.3%
Commute	Worked from home	23.0%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$15,000	$45,468	$217	$0	$0
2022	$710,059	$679,374	$30,684	$456,522	$251,337

Elections

2022 general house · NJ-11 — lost_general

Committees

DEGROOT FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$0	$3,991,499	4

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	HMP	oppose	$1,950,575	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$10,926	Media Production - Estimate
—	VOTEVETS	oppose	$2,000,000	TV Advertising Buy
2022-10-25	VOTEVETS	oppose	$29,998	TV Advertising Production

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
—	VOTEVETS	24A	$2,000,000
2022-11-08	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	24N	$3,271
2022-11-02	HMP	24A	$10,926
2022-11-01	HMP	24A	$1,950,575
2022-10-25	VOTEVETS	24A	$29,997
2022-10-21	UNITED FOOD & COMMERCIAL WORKERS INTERNATIONAL …	24N	$3,526
2022-10-20	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	24N	$7,836
2022-10-19	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	24N	$1,375
2022-10-04	NEW JERSEY RIGHT TO LIFE COMMITTEE FEDERAL PAC	24E	$758
2022-09-30	WINRED	24K	$-5
2022-09-28	NEW JERSEY REPUBLICAN STATE COMMITTEE	24C	$15,120
2022-06-21	FRELINGHUYSEN FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (16)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	VOTEVETS	contributed_to	$2,000,000	pas2
—	VOTEVETS	opposes_independently	$2,000,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$10,926	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$1,950,575	fec_ies
2022-11-08	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	contributed_to	$3,271	pas2
2022-11-02	HMP	contributed_to	$10,926	pas2
2022-11-01	HMP	contributed_to	$1,950,575	pas2
2022-10-25	VOTEVETS	contributed_to	$29,997	pas2
2022-10-25	VOTEVETS	opposes_independently	$29,998	fec_ies
2022-10-21	UNITED FOOD & COMMERCIAL WORKERS INTERNATIONAL UNION	contributed_to	$3,526	pas2
2022-10-20	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	contributed_to	$7,836	pas2
2022-10-19	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	contributed_to	$1,375	pas2
2022-10-04	NEW JERSEY RIGHT TO LIFE COMMITTEE FEDERAL PAC	contributed_to	$758	pas2
2022-09-30	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-09-28	NEW JERSEY REPUBLICAN STATE COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$15,120	pas2
2022-06-21	FRELINGHUYSEN FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	DEGROOT FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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