Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 10.1%
Feature
Ξ P(win)
Base rate (historical)
15.1%
open seat
-5.0%
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
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