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CORNICELLI, ROBERT MICHAEL CPT

R Β· house

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FEC candidate id
H2NY01158
Internal id
b18fc36f-5efb-40a5-a652-dd339e652c04
Status
open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here β€” American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NY-02. Source.

CategoryMetricValue
PeoplePopulation782,282
PeopleMedian age40
IncomeMedian household income$128,330
IncomePer-capita income$50,160
IncomeIn poverty6.4%
IncomeUnemployed4.8%
IncomeGini inequality index0.412
RaceWhite alone59.0%
RaceBlack alone10.2%
RaceAsian alone3.4%
RaceHispanic or Latino29.3%
RaceTwo or more races12.9%
OriginForeign-born19.3%
LanguageSpeaks English only at home70.4%
LanguageSpeaks Spanish at home21.8%
EducationHigh school or higher61.3%
EducationBachelor's or higher33.9%
EducationAdvanced degree14.8%
HouseholdFamily households74.0%
HouseholdAvg household size3.14
HouseholdNever married (15+)36.4%
HousingMedian home value$529,900
HousingMedian gross rent$2,204
HousingSingle-family detached78.3%
HousingBuilt before 19405.6%
HousingOvercrowded (>1 per room)3.8%
HousingVacant units6.1%
ServiceVeterans (18+)3.6%
HealthWith a disability10.7%
ConnectivityHouseholds with broadband92.7%
ConnectivityHouseholds with no internet5.9%
CommuteDrove alone73.0%
CommutePublic transit5.0%
CommuteWorked from home9.6%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

CycleRaisedSpentCash on handDebtsIndiv. contribs.
2024$0$2,130$0$4,000$0
2022$291,514$289,384$2,130$4,000$287,014

Elections

Committees

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

FeatureΞ” P(win)
Base rate (historical)15.1%
R (major party)+10.0%
open seat-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency Γ— party Γ— office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

CycleSupportOpposeIEs
2022$55,484$05

Recent (latest 25)

DateSpenderFor / againstAmountPurpose
2022-08-18PA PAC AKA PATRIOT ACTIONsupport$2,484MMS Services
2022-08-17AMERICAN LIBERTY FUNDsupport$4,000TEXTING CAMPAIGN CREATIVE (8/18/22-8/23/22)
2022-08-17AMERICAN LIBERTY FUNDsupport$12,000AD BUY (8/18/2022-8/23/2022)
2022-08-11AMERICAN LIBERTY FUNDsupport$20,000TEXT DEPLOYMENT (8/13-8/23)
2022-08-11AMERICAN LIBERTY FUNDsupport$17,000DIGITAL ADS (8/13/2022-8/23/2022)

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

DateFrom committeeTypeAmount
2022-09-24WINRED24K$-3
2022-09-05WINRED24K$-25
2022-09-05WINRED24K$-25
2022-09-05WINRED24K$-25
2022-09-05WINRED24K$-25
2022-08-21WINRED24K$-25
2022-08-18PA PAC AKA PATRIOT ACTION24E$2,483
2022-08-16WINRED24K$-250
2022-08-15WINRED24K$-20
2022-08-12WINRED24K$-250
2022-07-16WINRED24K$-20
2022-07-06WINRED24K$-25
2022-06-29WINRED24K$-10
2022-03-16WINRED24K$-25
2022-02-15WINRED24K$-25
2022-02-11WINRED24K$-100
2022-02-11SUFFOLK COUNTY PATROLMEN'S BENEVOLENT ASSOCIATI…24K$500
2022-02-10WINRED24K$-25
2022-02-03WINRED24K$-100
2022-02-01WINRED24K$-20
2022-01-27WINRED24K$-5
2021-12-19WINRED24K$-25
2021-12-10WINRED24K$-25
2021-12-07WINRED24K$-50
2021-12-06WINRED24K$-25

Connected on the graph

Inbound (30)

datefromtypeamountrolesource
2022-09-24WINREDcontributed_to$-3pas2
2022-09-05WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-09-05WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-09-05WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-09-05WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-08-21WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-08-18PA PAC AKA PATRIOT ACTIONsupports_independently$2,484fec_ies
2022-08-18PA PAC AKA PATRIOT ACTIONcontributed_to$2,483pas2
2022-08-17AMERICAN LIBERTY ACTION PACsupports_independently$12,000fec_ies
2022-08-17AMERICAN LIBERTY ACTION PACsupports_independently$4,000fec_ies
2022-08-16WINREDcontributed_to$-250pas2
2022-08-15WINREDcontributed_to$-20pas2
2022-08-12WINREDcontributed_to$-250pas2
2022-08-11AMERICAN LIBERTY ACTION PACsupports_independently$20,000fec_ies
2022-08-11AMERICAN LIBERTY ACTION PACsupports_independently$17,000fec_ies
2022-07-16WINREDcontributed_to$-20pas2
2022-07-06WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-06-29WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-03-16WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-02-15WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-02-11SUFFOLK COUNTY PATROLMEN'S BENEVOLENT ASSOCIATION FEDERAL PAC (SCPBA FEDERAL PAC)contributed_to$500pas2
2022-02-11WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-02-10WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-02-03WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-02-01WINREDcontributed_to$-20pas2
2022-01-27WINREDcontributed_to$-5pas2
2021-12-19WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2021-12-10WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2021-12-07WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2021-12-06WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2

Outbound (1)

datetypetoamountrolesource
β€”principal_candidate_ofCORNICELLI FOR CONGRESSβ€”candidate_committees

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