SCHMITT, COLIN J

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2NY18087
Internal id: aca3e4e5-11f6-4fb3-9496-c384a648f3cb
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NY-18. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	786,484
People	Median age	40
Income	Median household income	$94,063
Income	Per-capita income	$47,058
Income	In poverty	11.6%
Income	Unemployed	5.3%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.462
Race	White alone	65.9%
Race	Black alone	10.4%
Race	Asian alone	3.0%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	19.3%
Race	Two or more races	11.8%
Origin	Foreign-born	12.3%
Language	Speaks English only at home	77.2%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	12.0%
Education	High school or higher	63.3%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	36.6%
Education	Advanced degree	16.4%
Household	Family households	64.3%
Household	Avg household size	2.56
Household	Never married (15+)	35.5%
Housing	Median home value	$381,700
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,609
Housing	Single-family detached	60.7%
Housing	Built before 1940	4.6%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.7%
Housing	Vacant units	7.3%
Service	Veterans (18+)	4.9%
Health	With a disability	12.8%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	91.3%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	6.8%
Commute	Drove alone	67.6%
Commute	Public transit	4.0%
Commute	Worked from home	14.2%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$5,536	$7,900	$0	$0	$0
2022	$2,062,676	$2,060,313	$2,363	$0	$1,394,273

Elections

2022 general house · NY-18 — lost_general

Committees

SCHMITT FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
SCHMITT FOR NY-18 — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$35,697	$5,661,835	48

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	HMP	oppose	$1,923,976	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$37,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$37,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$18,348	Digital Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$31,500	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$16,222	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$18,500	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$50	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$220,426	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$3,087	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$37,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$151,375	Television Advertising - Estimate
2022-10-25	VOTEVETS	oppose	$1,809	TV Advertising Production
2022-10-25	VOTEVETS	oppose	$15,107	TV Advertising Production
2022-10-24	VOTEVETS	oppose	$949,867	TV Advertising Buy
2022-10-22	SERVICE & INTEGRITY PAC	oppose	$25,914	Direct Mail
2022-10-19	NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND	support	$5,197	IE-Schmitt, Colin Direct Mail
2022-10-19	SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS P…	support	$10,000	Digital Advertising
2022-10-18	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY & MUNICIPAL…	oppose	$17,308	2022 IE Production cost Invoice for Digital Ads in the NY H…
2022-10-17	SPECIAL OPERATIONS FOR AMERICA	support	$3,000	PRODUCTION COST: DIGITAL ADS
2022-10-17	SPECIAL OPERATIONS FOR AMERICA	support	$7,500	DIGITAL ADVERTISING
2022-10-13	DCCC	oppose	$128,125	Media Buy
2022-10-13	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY & MUNICIPAL…	oppose	$125,100	2022 IE Digital Ad Buy for NY-18 House race.
2022-10-13	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY & MUNICIPAL…	oppose	$125,100	2022 IE Digital Ad Buy for NY-18 House race.
2022-10-11	DCCC	oppose	$121,875	Media Buy

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
—	HMP	24A	$37,000
2022-12-26	WINRED	24K	$-1
2022-12-26	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-12-22	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-12-22	WINRED	24K	$-2
2022-12-22	WINRED	24K	$-6
2022-12-22	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-12-22	WINRED	24K	$-1
2022-12-18	WINRED	24K	$-18
2022-12-18	WINRED	24K	$-4
2022-12-16	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-12-16	WINRED	24K	$-1
2022-12-10	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-12-10	WINRED	24K	$-34
2022-12-10	WINRED	24K	$-34
2022-12-09	WINRED	24K	$-20
2022-12-08	WINRED	24K	$-2
2022-12-08	WINRED	24K	$-4
2022-12-08	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-12-08	WINRED	24K	$-1
2022-12-08	WINRED	24K	$-6
2022-12-08	WINRED	24K	$-2
2022-12-08	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-12-08	WINRED	24K	$-2
2022-12-08	WINRED	24K	$-2

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

date	from	type	amount	role	source
—	HMP	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$37,000	24A	fec_pas2
—	HMP	contributed_to	$37,000		pas2
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$31,500		fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$3,087		fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$220,426		fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$18,500		fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$37,000		fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$1,923,976		fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$16,222		fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$50		fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$151,375		fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$37,000		fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$18,348		fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$37,000		fec_ies
2022-12-26	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1		pas2
2022-12-26	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-12-22	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-12-22	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1		pas2
2022-12-22	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2		pas2
2022-12-22	WINRED	contributed_to	$-6		pas2
2022-12-22	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-12-18	WINRED	contributed_to	$-18		pas2
2022-12-18	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4		pas2
2022-12-16	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-12-16	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1		pas2
2022-12-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-12-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$-34		pas2
2022-12-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$-34		pas2
2022-12-09	WINRED	contributed_to	$-20		pas2
2022-12-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4		pas2
2022-12-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-12-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2		pas2
2022-12-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-6		pas2
2022-12-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-7		pas2
2022-12-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2		pas2
2022-12-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2		pas2
2022-12-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-12-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-12-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1		pas2
2022-12-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-12-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2		pas2
2022-12-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2		pas2
2022-12-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2		pas2
2022-12-06	WINRED	contributed_to	$-8		pas2
2022-12-06	WINRED	contributed_to	$-8		pas2
2022-12-06	WINRED	contributed_to	$-8		pas2
2022-12-06	WINRED	contributed_to	$-8		pas2
2022-12-05	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-12-02	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5		pas2
2022-12-02	WINRED	contributed_to	$-11		pas2
2022-12-01	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-11-30	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-11-30	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-11-30	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-11-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-7		pas2
2022-11-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2		pas2
2022-11-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1		pas2
2022-11-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4		pas2
2022-11-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4		pas2
2022-11-26	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1		pas2
2022-11-22	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1		pas2
2022-11-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-11-20	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25		pas2
2022-11-19	WINRED	contributed_to	$-3		pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1		pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2		pas2
2022-11-15	WINRED	contributed_to	$-8		pas2
2022-11-14	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4		pas2
2022-11-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$-6		pas2
2022-11-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1		pas2
2022-11-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-11-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2		pas2
2022-11-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-11-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2		pas2
2022-11-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-11-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1		pas2
2022-11-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-11-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-11-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$-500		pas2
2022-11-09	WINRED	contributed_to	$-17		pas2
2022-11-08	HMP	contributed_to	$50		pas2
2022-11-08	CLF	contributed_to	$7,922		pas2
2022-11-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1		pas2
2022-11-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10		pas2
2022-11-08	CLF	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$7,922	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-08	HMP	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$50	24A	fec_pas2
2022-11-07	WINRED	contributed_to	$-34		pas2
2022-11-07	VOTEVETS	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$250,000	24A	fec_pas2
2022-11-07	VOTEVETS	contributed_to	$250,000		pas2
2022-11-07	JAKE ELLZEY FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2022-11-07	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25		pas2
2022-11-07	JAKE ELLZEY FOR CONGRESS	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-11-07	CLF	contributed_to	$20,450		pas2
2022-11-07	CLF	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$20,450	24E	fec_pas2
2022-11-06	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5		pas2
2022-11-05	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	SCHMITT FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	SCHMITT FOR NY-18	—		candidate_committees

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