MOLINARO, MARCUS J.

R · house · bioguide M001221

FEC candidate id: H2NY19127
Internal id: 92f5e55a-9044-4123-8bc6-5315f8edfac7
Status: incumbent

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NY-19. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	774,788
People	Median age	42
Income	Median household income	$73,134
Income	Per-capita income	$41,734
Income	In poverty	14.5%
Income	Unemployed	5.9%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.472
Race	White alone	81.7%
Race	Black alone	4.4%
Race	Asian alone	3.7%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	7.3%
Race	Two or more races	7.1%
Origin	Foreign-born	7.4%
Language	Speaks English only at home	89.2%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	4.1%
Education	High school or higher	64.0%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	35.3%
Education	Advanced degree	17.0%
Household	Family households	58.6%
Household	Avg household size	2.26
Household	Never married (15+)	36.5%
Housing	Median home value	$222,900
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,091
Housing	Single-family detached	67.0%
Housing	Built before 1940	5.9%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.8%
Housing	Vacant units	20.8%
Service	Veterans (18+)	5.8%
Health	With a disability	14.9%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	89.6%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	7.4%
Commute	Drove alone	69.5%
Commute	Public transit	2.2%
Commute	Worked from home	13.6%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$19,407	$71,366	$0	$0	$246
2024	$5,570,306	$5,580,362	$51,959	$59,783	$2,541,464
2022	$2,491,602	$2,429,587	$62,015	$59,288	$1,872,635

Elections

2022 general house · NY-19 — won
2024 general house · NY-19 — lost_general

Committees

MARC FOR US INC. — principal · type H
MOLINARO FOR NY-19 — principal · type H

Recent votes

2024-12-20 · Cong. 118 · house roll 517
YEA on HR 10545 — American Relief Act, 2025
2024-12-19 · Cong. 118 · house roll 516
YEA on HR 10515 — American Relief Act, 2025
2024-12-18 · Cong. 118 · house roll 515
YEA on S 759 — Beagle Brigade Act of 2023
2024-12-18 · Cong. 118 · house roll 514
YEA on HR 8663 — DETECT Fentanyl and Xylazine Act of 2024
2024-12-18 · Cong. 118 · house roll 513
YEA on S 3857 — Jamul Indian Village Land Transfer Act
2024-12-18 · Cong. 118 · house roll 512
YEA on S 1351 — Stop Institutional Child Abuse Act
2024-12-17 · Cong. 118 · house roll 511
YEA on HR 1101 — Lumbee Fairness Act
2024-12-17 · Cong. 118 · house roll 510
YEA on Never Again Education Reauthorization Act
2024-12-17 · Cong. 118 · house roll 509
YEA on HR 115 — Midnight Rules Relief Act
2024-12-17 · Cong. 118 · house roll 508
NAY on HR 115 — Midnight Rules Relief Act

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 99.0%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
incumbent	+78.0%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2024	$1,673,148	$12,393,659	103
2022	$191,378	$5,508,969	43

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	HMP	oppose	$71,900	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$31,957	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$673,536	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY VICTORY FUND (EVERYTOW…	oppose	$11,122	In-Kind Received - Television Advertising Production (Estim…
—	BATTLEGROUND NEW YORK	oppose	$18,437	Mail Postage (Estimate)
—	HMP	oppose	$66,511	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$12,560	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$12,756	Media Production - Estimate
—	EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY VICTORY FUND (EVERYTOW…	oppose	$11,122	In-Kind Received - Television Advertising Production (Estim…
—	BATTLEGROUND NEW YORK	oppose	$14,783	Digital Ad Production and Buy (Estimate)
—	HMP	oppose	$763,695	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	BATTLEGROUND NEW YORK	oppose	$9,835	Mail Production, Printing, and Shipping (Estimate)
—	HMP	oppose	$80,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$17,000	Digital Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$2,386	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$11,691	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$9,418	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$820,338	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$80,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$11,440	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$77,850	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$3,028	Digital Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$85,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$1,229,840	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$1,482,430	Television Advertising - Estimate

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2025-08-27	BUDDY CARTER FOR SENATE	24K	$-1,000
2025-04-24	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	24A	$46
2025-04-24	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	24A	$670
2025-03-30	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	24A	$103
2025-03-30	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	24A	$30
2025-02-14	AMERICAN ACADEMY OF DERMATOLOGY ASSOCIATION POL…	24K	$-2,500
2025-01-28	BUDDY PAC	24K	$-1,000
2025-01-28	NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY FEDERAL POLITICAL ACT…	24K	$-500
2025-01-21	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	24A	$2,059
2025-01-16	AMERICAN DREAM DELIVERED	24K	$-1,000
2025-01-16	TEXAS FARM BUREAU AGFUND	24K	$-1,000
2022-12-30	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF LETTER CARRIERS OF U.S.…	24K	$5,000
2022-12-27	WINRED	24K	$-49
2022-12-26	WINRED	24K	$-3
2022-12-26	WINRED	24K	$-14
2022-12-21	WINRED	24K	$-2
2022-12-21	WINRED	24K	$-1
2022-12-21	ENGINEERS POLITICAL EDUCATION COMMITTEE (EPEC)/…	24K	$5,000
2022-12-19	AT&T INC. EMPLOYEE FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION COM…	24K	$2,000
2022-12-18	WINRED	24K	$-5
2022-12-18	WINRED	24K	$-5
2022-12-17	WINRED	24K	$-2
2022-12-13	WINRED	24K	$-3
2022-12-13	WINRED	24K	$-19
2022-12-10	WINRED	24K	$0

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	SPECIAL OPERATIONS FOR AMERICA	supports_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$240	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUND	supports_independently	$240	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUND	supports_independently	$240	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUND	supports_independently	$1,440	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$18,817	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$17,500	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$960	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$960	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUND	supports_independently	$1,200	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUND	supports_independently	$960	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUND	supports_independently	$24,087	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUND	supports_independently	$73,262	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUND	supports_independently	$300,000	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$44,850	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUND	supports_independently	$417,232	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUND	supports_independently	$526,000	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUND	supports_independently	$89,000	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$24,000	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUND	supports_independently	$2,150	fec_ies
—	NYIC POLITICAL ACTION FUND	supports_independently	$538	fec_ies
—	NYIC POLITICAL ACTION FUND	opposes_independently	$538	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$379,671	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$6,966	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$730,205	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$730,205	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$13,833	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$71,900	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$31,957	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$55,610	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$28,914	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$388,800	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$71,900	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$12,560	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$500	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$30,240	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$2,700	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$500	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$500	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$378,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$673,536	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$13,833	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$30,620	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$401,760	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$71,900	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$1,482,430	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$21,230	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$1,279,390	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$5,971	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$401,760	fec_ies
—	EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY VICTORY FUND (EVERYTOWN VICTORY FUND)	opposes_independently	$11,122	fec_ies
—	EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY VICTORY FUND (EVERYTOWN VICTORY FUND)	opposes_independently	$11,122	fec_ies
—	BATTLEGROUND NEW YORK	opposes_independently	$18,437	fec_ies
—	BATTLEGROUND NEW YORK	opposes_independently	$9,835	fec_ies
—	BATTLEGROUND NEW YORK	opposes_independently	$14,783	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$17,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$11,691	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$9,418	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$820,338	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$80,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$11,440	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$1,229,840	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$85,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$3,028	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$77,850	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$66,511	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$12,756	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$763,695	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$80,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$2,386	fec_ies
2025-08-27	BUDDY CARTER FOR SENATE	contributed_to	$-1,000	pas2
2025-04-24	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	contributed_to	$670	pas2
2025-04-24	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	contributed_to	$46	pas2
2025-03-30	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	contributed_to	$30	pas2
2025-03-30	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	contributed_to	$103	pas2
2025-02-14	AMERICAN ACADEMY OF DERMATOLOGY ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (SKINPAC)	contributed_to	$-2,500	pas2
2025-01-28	NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$-500	pas2
2025-01-28	BUDDY PAC	contributed_to	$-1,000	pas2
2025-01-21	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	contributed_to	$2,059	pas2
2025-01-16	AMERICAN DREAM DELIVERED	contributed_to	$-1,000	pas2
2025-01-16	TEXAS FARM BUREAU AGFUND	contributed_to	$-1,000	pas2
2024-11-01	PATRIOTS FOR A BRIGHTER AMERICA	supports_independently	$1,320	fec_ies
2024-10-31	AFT SOLIDARITY	opposes_independently	$1,000	fec_ies
2024-10-31	AFT SOLIDARITY	opposes_independently	$7,300	fec_ies
2024-10-28	1199 SEIU NEW YORK STATE POLITICAL ACTION FUND	opposes_independently	$231	fec_ies
2024-10-25	PATRIOTS FOR A BRIGHTER AMERICA	supports_independently	$8,524	fec_ies
2024-10-25	END CITIZENS UNITED	opposes_independently	$1,000	fec_ies
2024-10-25	END CITIZENS UNITED	opposes_independently	$45,000	fec_ies
2024-10-25	END CITIZENS UNITED	opposes_independently	$20,000	fec_ies
2024-10-25	END CITIZENS UNITED	opposes_independently	$19,517	fec_ies
2024-10-25	END CITIZENS UNITED	opposes_independently	$14,000	fec_ies
2024-10-24	SAVE WESTERN CULTURE	opposes_independently	$35,606	fec_ies
2024-10-24	NEW LEADERS 2024	supports_independently	$2,833	fec_ies
2024-10-23	DCCC	opposes_independently	$654,500	fec_ies
2024-10-22	EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY VICTORY FUND (EVERYTOWN VICTORY FUND)	opposes_independently	$5,343	fec_ies
2024-10-17	PATRIOTS FOR A BRIGHTER AMERICA	supports_independently	$9,900	fec_ies
2024-10-17	AMERICAN UNITY PAC INC	supports_independently	$8,000	fec_ies
2024-10-17	NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$5,211	fec_ies
2024-10-17	NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$258	fec_ies
2024-10-15	PATRIOTS FOR A BRIGHTER AMERICA	supports_independently	$6,600	fec_ies

Outbound (4)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	MOLINARO FOR NY-19	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	MARC FOR US INC.	—		candidate_committees
2023-12-19	cosponsor_of_bill	HR 2894 — Block Nuclear Launch by Autonomous Artificial Intelligence Act of 2023	—	cosponsor	sponsorship
2023-05-11	cosponsor_of_bill	HR 3238 — Affordable Housing Credit Improvement Act of 2023	—	cosponsor	sponsorship

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