SEMPOLINSKI, JOSEPH

R · house · bioguide S001219

FEC candidate id: H2NY23137
Internal id: 6809c42f-6e76-4879-83e1-efb3a2f9c8d0
Status: incumbent

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NY-23. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	770,072
People	Median age	44
Income	Median household income	$72,834
Income	Per-capita income	$41,154
Income	In poverty	12.5%
Income	Unemployed	5.2%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.454
Race	White alone	90.1%
Race	Black alone	2.2%
Race	Asian alone	1.0%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	3.8%
Race	Two or more races	4.6%
Origin	Foreign-born	2.8%
Language	Speaks English only at home	94.7%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	1.9%
Education	High school or higher	62.4%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	30.9%
Education	Advanced degree	13.8%
Household	Family households	62.6%
Household	Avg household size	2.30
Household	Never married (15+)	30.3%
Housing	Median home value	$185,300
Housing	Median gross rent	$929
Housing	Single-family detached	70.3%
Housing	Built before 1940	5.7%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.1%
Housing	Vacant units	12.7%
Service	Veterans (18+)	7.5%
Health	With a disability	15.2%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	89.0%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	8.3%
Commute	Drove alone	77.0%
Commute	Public transit	0.5%
Commute	Worked from home	10.5%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$86	$286	$0	$0	$0
2022	$287,345	$287,145	$200	$12,687	$188,587

Elections

2022 general house · NY-23 — lost_general

Committees

JOE SEMPOLINSKI FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Recent votes

No votes on file.

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 99.0%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
incumbent	+78.0%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-11-18	WINRED	24K	$-1,000
2022-10-20	CORNING INCORPORATED EMPLOYEES POLITICAL ACTION…	24K	$5,000
2022-10-11	CORNING INCORPORATED EMPLOYEES POLITICAL ACTION…	24K	$-5,000
2022-09-26	CORNING INCORPORATED EMPLOYEES POLITICAL ACTION…	24K	$5,000
2022-08-17	MAJORITY COMMITTEE PAC--MC PAC	24K	$5,000
2022-08-09	AMERICAN COUNCIL OF ENGINEERING COMPANIES (ACEC…	24K	$1,000
2022-08-09	ADRIAN SMITH FOR CONGRESS	24K	$1,000
2022-08-08	NATIONAL READY MIXED CONCRETE ASSN. PAC (CONCRE…	24K	$2,500
2022-08-05	GREATER TOMORROW POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$1,000
2022-08-04	SMART TD PAC	24K	$2,500
2022-08-01	AMERICAN DENTAL ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION CO…	24K	$2,000
2022-07-28	INTERNATIONAL UNION OF OPERATING ENGINEERS/LOCA…	24K	$2,500
2022-07-26	ABRAHAM LINCOLN PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-07-05	NATIONAL AUTOMOBILE DEALERS ASSOCIATION POLITIC…	24K	$500
2022-06-30	EXCELSIOR PAC	24K	$-5,000
2022-06-30	TENACIOUS PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-06-28	THE EYE OF THE TIGER POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$5,000
2022-06-28	SCALISE FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2022-06-27	NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY FEDERAL POLITICAL ACT…	24K	$1,000
2022-06-24	ELISE FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2022-06-23	NIAGARA FRONTIER PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-06-20	NEW YORK RENEWAL PAC	24K	$500
2021-12-08	ROUGHRIDER PAC	24K	$2,000
2021-11-09	VGM GROUP INC PAC (VGM PAC)	24K	$1,000
2021-10-12	LEE PAC	24K	$2,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (27)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-11-18	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1,000	pas2
2022-10-20	CORNING INCORPORATED EMPLOYEES POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (COREPAC)	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-10-11	CORNING INCORPORATED EMPLOYEES POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (COREPAC)	contributed_to	$-5,000	pas2
2022-09-26	CORNING INCORPORATED EMPLOYEES POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (COREPAC)	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-08-17	MAJORITY COMMITTEE PAC--MC PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-08-09	ADRIAN SMITH FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-08-09	AMERICAN COUNCIL OF ENGINEERING COMPANIES (ACEC/PAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-08-08	NATIONAL READY MIXED CONCRETE ASSN. PAC (CONCRETEPAC)	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-08-05	GREATER TOMORROW POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-08-04	SMART TD PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-08-01	AMERICAN DENTAL ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-07-28	INTERNATIONAL UNION OF OPERATING ENGINEERS/LOCAL 17 POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-07-26	ABRAHAM LINCOLN LEADERSHIP POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-07-05	NATIONAL AUTOMOBILE DEALERS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-06-30	TENACIOUS PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-06-30	EXCELSIOR PAC	contributed_to	$-5,000	pas2
2022-06-28	THE EYE OF THE TIGER POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-06-28	SCALISE FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-06-27	NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-06-24	ELISE FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-06-23	NIAGARA FRONTIER PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-06-20	NEW YORK RENEWAL PAC	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2021-12-08	ROUGHRIDER PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2021-11-09	VGM GROUP INC PAC (VGM PAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-10-12	LEE PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2021-09-28	EXCELSIOR PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-09-28	EXCELSIOR PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	JOE SEMPOLINSKI FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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