CASEY, THOMAS P
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H2NY27088- Internal id
9a9e33b8-afa6-4054-a469-b21eaaed85c4- Status
- open seat
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $3,022 | $0 |
| 2004 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Elections
- 2000 general house Β· NY-27 β lost_general
- 2004 general house Β· NY-27 β lost_general
- 2018 general house Β· NY-27 β lost_general
Committees
- CASEY FOR CHANGE β principal Β· type H
- TOM CASEY FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | CASEY FOR CHANGE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | TOM CASEY FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |