ROBERTS, DUSTIN

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2OK02216
Internal id: e9dcf5ca-5577-47bd-aec7-aa295af14e1d
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), OK-02. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	804,459
People	Median age	40
Income	Median household income	$55,652
Income	Per-capita income	$29,843
Income	In poverty	17.9%
Income	Unemployed	5.2%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.456
Race	White alone	63.7%
Race	Black alone	3.0%
Race	Asian alone	0.9%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	6.2%
Race	Two or more races	13.8%
Origin	Foreign-born	2.4%
Language	Speaks English only at home	94.5%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	3.3%
Education	High school or higher	57.3%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	19.9%
Education	Advanced degree	6.3%
Household	Family households	66.3%
Household	Avg household size	2.52
Household	Never married (15+)	26.8%
Housing	Median home value	$160,000
Housing	Median gross rent	$839
Housing	Single-family detached	73.0%
Housing	Built before 1940	4.3%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	3.1%
Housing	Vacant units	17.0%
Service	Veterans (18+)	8.1%
Health	With a disability	21.7%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	83.2%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	13.5%
Commute	Drove alone	78.9%
Commute	Public transit	0.2%
Commute	Worked from home	7.8%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
2022	$198,072	$198,072	$0	$0	$155,359

Elections

2022 general house · OK-2 — lost_general

Committees

DUSTIN ROBERTS FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$42,000	$0	1

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2022-06-17	PUSHMATAHA PAC	support	$42,000	digital ads and placement

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-07-05	WINRED	24K	$-120
2022-07-05	WINRED	24K	$-120
2022-06-17	PUSHMATAHA PAC	24E	$42,000
2022-05-20	WINRED	24K	$-10
2022-05-12	WINRED	24K	$-250
2022-04-01	SWEDISH MATCH NORTH AMERICA LLC PAC	24K	$2,500

Connected on the graph

Inbound (7)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-07-05	WINRED	contributed_to	$-120	pas2
2022-07-05	WINRED	contributed_to	$-120	pas2
2022-06-17	PUSHMATAHA PAC	supports_independently	$42,000	fec_ies
2022-06-17	PUSHMATAHA PAC	contributed_to	$42,000	pas2
2022-05-20	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-05-12	WINRED	contributed_to	$-250	pas2
2022-04-01	SWEDISH MATCH NORTH AMERICA LLC PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	DUSTIN ROBERTS FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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