NOBLE, RON

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2OR06058
Internal id: 1ada12f9-97d4-4c77-b370-8d9ba5a6615a
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), OR-06. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	713,801
People	Median age	39
Income	Median household income	$87,618
Income	Per-capita income	$43,665
Income	In poverty	11.1%
Income	Unemployed	5.0%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.443
Race	White alone	70.3%
Race	Black alone	1.3%
Race	Asian alone	3.5%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	21.9%
Race	Two or more races	14.6%
Origin	Foreign-born	12.2%
Language	Speaks English only at home	79.4%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	14.8%
Education	High school or higher	57.3%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	35.1%
Education	Advanced degree	12.4%
Household	Family households	65.9%
Household	Avg household size	2.57
Household	Never married (15+)	32.4%
Housing	Median home value	$475,300
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,569
Housing	Single-family detached	60.7%
Housing	Built before 1940	3.0%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	3.8%
Housing	Vacant units	4.0%
Service	Veterans (18+)	7.0%
Health	With a disability	14.6%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	92.8%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	4.5%
Commute	Drove alone	67.2%
Commute	Public transit	1.3%
Commute	Worked from home	17.5%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$0	$0	$0	$8,363	$0
2022	$144,543	$144,543	$0	$8,363	$144,543

Elections

2022 general house · OR-6 — lost_general

Committees

NOBLE FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$0	$4,149	1

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2022-05-03	TAKE BACK OREGON PAC	oppose	$4,149	DIRECT MAIL & POSTAGE

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-05-03	TAKE BACK OREGON PAC	24A	$4,149
2022-04-30	RIGHT TO LIFE/OREGON PAC	24E	$8
2022-04-30	RIGHT TO LIFE/OREGON PAC	24E	$5
2022-04-27	RIGHT TO LIFE/OREGON PAC	24E	$227
2022-04-21	RIGHT TO LIFE/OREGON PAC	24E	$13
2022-04-14	RIGHT TO LIFE/OREGON PAC	24E	$139

Connected on the graph

Inbound (7)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-05-03	TAKE BACK OREGON PAC	contributed_to	$4,149	pas2
2022-05-03	TAKE BACK OREGON PAC	opposes_independently	$4,149	fec_ies
2022-04-30	RIGHT TO LIFE/OREGON PAC	contributed_to	$5	pas2
2022-04-30	RIGHT TO LIFE/OREGON PAC	contributed_to	$8	pas2
2022-04-27	RIGHT TO LIFE/OREGON PAC	contributed_to	$227	pas2
2022-04-21	RIGHT TO LIFE/OREGON PAC	contributed_to	$13	pas2
2022-04-14	RIGHT TO LIFE/OREGON PAC	contributed_to	$139	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	NOBLE FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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