FLYNN, CARRICK RONAN MORGAN

D · house

FEC candidate id: H2OR06090
Internal id: f29f4e27-89d8-4b1d-87a1-0edd99b7cb45
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), OR-06. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	713,801
People	Median age	39
Income	Median household income	$87,618
Income	Per-capita income	$43,665
Income	In poverty	11.1%
Income	Unemployed	5.0%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.443
Race	White alone	70.3%
Race	Black alone	1.3%
Race	Asian alone	3.5%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	21.9%
Race	Two or more races	14.6%
Origin	Foreign-born	12.2%
Language	Speaks English only at home	79.4%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	14.8%
Education	High school or higher	57.3%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	35.1%
Education	Advanced degree	12.4%
Household	Family households	65.9%
Household	Avg household size	2.57
Household	Never married (15+)	32.4%
Housing	Median home value	$475,300
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,569
Housing	Single-family detached	60.7%
Housing	Built before 1940	3.0%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	3.8%
Housing	Vacant units	4.0%
Service	Veterans (18+)	7.0%
Health	With a disability	14.6%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	92.8%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	4.5%
Commute	Drove alone	67.2%
Commute	Public transit	1.3%
Commute	Worked from home	17.5%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2022	$1,147,786	$1,147,786	$0	$0	$1,142,620

Elections

2022 general house · OR-6 — lost_general

Committees

CARRICK FLYNN FOR OREGON — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$18,423,841	$0	106

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	HMP	support	$19,365	Media Production - Estimate
—	JUSTICE UNITES US PAC	support	$846,581	Canvassing - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$1,497	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$448,800	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$19,518	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$448,800	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$62,846	Direct Mail Services
—	HMP	support	$1,497	Media Production - Estimate
2022-05-13	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$4,662	GOTV calls
2022-05-13	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$5,000	GOTV calls
2022-05-12	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$83,520	Ad Production
2022-05-10	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$12,634	Ad Production
2022-05-06	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$72,399	Direct Mail Services
2022-05-06	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$57,399	Direct Mail Services
2022-05-04	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$88,977	Ad Production
2022-05-04	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$46,609	Ad Production
2022-05-04	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$21,455	Ad Production
2022-05-04	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$20,000	Ad Production
2022-05-04	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$88,977	Ad Production
2022-05-04	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$46,609	Ad Production
2022-05-03	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$20,510	Ad Production
2022-05-03	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$20,000	Ad Production
2022-05-02	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$57,399	Direct Mail Services
2022-05-02	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$57,399	Direct Mail Services
2022-04-30	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	support	$55,283	Direct Mail Services

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-05-13	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$4,661
2022-05-12	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$83,519
2022-05-10	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$12,633
2022-05-06	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$72,399
2022-05-06	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$57,399
2022-05-04	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$21,455
2022-05-04	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$46,609
2022-05-04	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$88,976
2022-05-03	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$20,509
2022-05-02	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$57,399
2022-04-30	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$120,000
2022-04-30	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$55,282
2022-04-30	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$615,060
2022-04-29	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$6,471
2022-04-27	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$30,202
2022-04-27	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$36,568
2022-04-26	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$547,560
2022-04-25	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$49,227
2022-04-25	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$10,350
2022-04-22	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$57,399
2022-04-22	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$2,740
2022-04-19	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$9,826
2022-04-19	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$55,282
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$845,976
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	24E	$1,324,385

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$62,846	fec_ies
—	JUSTICE UNITES US PAC	supports_independently	$846,581	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$448,800	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$448,800	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$1,497	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$1,497	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$19,365	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$19,518	fec_ies
2022-05-13	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$5,000	fec_ies
2022-05-13	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$4,661	pas2
2022-05-13	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$4,662	fec_ies
2022-05-12	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$83,520	fec_ies
2022-05-12	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$83,519	pas2
2022-05-10	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$12,634	fec_ies
2022-05-10	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$12,633	pas2
2022-05-06	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$57,399	fec_ies
2022-05-06	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$72,399	pas2
2022-05-06	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$72,399	fec_ies
2022-05-06	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$57,399	pas2
2022-05-04	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$46,609	pas2
2022-05-04	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$21,455	pas2
2022-05-04	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$46,609	fec_ies
2022-05-04	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$88,977	fec_ies
2022-05-04	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$21,455	fec_ies
2022-05-04	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$46,609	fec_ies
2022-05-04	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$88,977	fec_ies
2022-05-04	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$20,000	fec_ies
2022-05-04	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$88,976	pas2
2022-05-03	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$20,510	fec_ies
2022-05-03	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$20,000	fec_ies
2022-05-03	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$20,509	pas2
2022-05-02	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$57,399	fec_ies
2022-05-02	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$57,399	fec_ies
2022-05-02	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$57,399	pas2
2022-04-30	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$55,283	fec_ies
2022-04-30	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$120,000	pas2
2022-04-30	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$615,060	pas2
2022-04-30	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$55,282	pas2
2022-04-29	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$615,060	fec_ies
2022-04-29	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$6,471	pas2
2022-04-29	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$120,000	fec_ies
2022-04-29	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$15,500	fec_ies
2022-04-29	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$6,472	fec_ies
2022-04-27	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$30,202	pas2
2022-04-27	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$32,000	fec_ies
2022-04-27	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$35,000	fec_ies
2022-04-27	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$36,568	fec_ies
2022-04-27	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$30,202	fec_ies
2022-04-27	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$36,568	pas2
2022-04-26	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$547,560	pas2
2022-04-26	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$547,560	fec_ies
2022-04-26	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$547,560	fec_ies
2022-04-25	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$10,350	fec_ies
2022-04-25	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$49,227	pas2
2022-04-25	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$49,227	fec_ies
2022-04-25	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$10,350	pas2
2022-04-22	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$2,740	pas2
2022-04-22	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$57,399	pas2
2022-04-22	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$57,399	fec_ies
2022-04-22	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$2,741	fec_ies
2022-04-20	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$9,826	fec_ies
2022-04-20	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$12,000	fec_ies
2022-04-19	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$9,826	pas2
2022-04-19	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$55,283	fec_ies
2022-04-19	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$55,282	pas2
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$85,386	fec_ies
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$55,282	pas2
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$55,282	pas2
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$845,976	fec_ies
2022-04-15	HMP	contributed_to	$1,497	pas2
2022-04-15	HMP	contributed_to	$1,497	pas2
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$85,386	fec_ies
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$55,283	fec_ies
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$55,283	fec_ies
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$85,386	pas2
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$893,800	pas2
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$85,386	pas2
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$1,324,385	pas2
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$1,324,385	fec_ies
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$85,386	fec_ies
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$85,386	fec_ies
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$845,976	pas2
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$1,324,385	fec_ies
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$893,800	fec_ies
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$845,976	fec_ies
2022-04-15	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$893,800	fec_ies
2022-04-14	HMP	contributed_to	$448,800	pas2
2022-04-14	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$51,051	fec_ies
2022-04-14	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$55,283	fec_ies
2022-04-14	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$51,050	pas2
2022-04-12	HMP	contributed_to	$19,517	pas2
2022-04-12	HMP	contributed_to	$448,800	pas2
2022-04-12	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$19,192	fec_ies
2022-04-12	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$19,191	pas2
2022-04-12	HMP	contributed_to	$19,364	pas2
2022-04-09	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$20,450	pas2
2022-04-09	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$20,450	fec_ies
2022-04-06	JUSTICE UNITES US PAC	contributed_to	$846,581	pas2
2022-04-06	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$51,051	fec_ies
2022-04-06	PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	supports_independently	$15,000	fec_ies

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	CARRICK FLYNN FOR OREGON	—		candidate_committees

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