DOYLE, MICHAEL

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2PA12070
Internal id: 13d2d86e-b538-4784-951f-aecab13d5ffc
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), PA-12. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	760,856
People	Median age	40
Income	Median household income	$71,986
Income	Per-capita income	$45,179
Income	In poverty	14.0%
Income	Unemployed	5.6%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.483
Race	White alone	73.7%
Race	Black alone	15.0%
Race	Asian alone	4.2%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	3.1%
Race	Two or more races	5.8%
Origin	Foreign-born	6.5%
Language	Speaks English only at home	91.5%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	2.0%
Education	High school or higher	69.3%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	41.9%
Education	Advanced degree	17.9%
Household	Family households	53.5%
Household	Avg household size	2.17
Household	Never married (15+)	41.1%
Housing	Median home value	$205,700
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,143
Housing	Single-family detached	60.4%
Housing	Built before 1940	9.2%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.1%
Housing	Vacant units	11.3%
Service	Veterans (18+)	5.8%
Health	With a disability	14.7%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	89.9%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	8.0%
Commute	Drove alone	59.9%
Commute	Public transit	6.8%
Commute	Worked from home	20.3%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2022	$205,105	$205,105	$0	$0	$139,345

Elections

2022 general house · PA-12 — lost_general

Committees

FRIENDS OF MIKE DOYLE — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$0	$65,067	3

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2022-11-05	WOMEN VOTE	oppose	$17,857	TV Media Buy
2022-11-04	WOMEN VOTE	oppose	$7,527	TV Media Production
2022-11-03	WOMEN VOTE	oppose	$39,683	TV Media Buy

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-11-05	WOMEN VOTE	24A	$17,856
2022-11-04	WOMEN VOTE	24A	$7,527
2022-11-03	GARY PALMER FOR CONGRESS	24K	$1,500
2022-11-03	WOMEN VOTE	24A	$39,682
2022-11-01	REJOICE PAC	24K	$2,500
2022-10-29	GREATER TOMORROW POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$1,000
2022-10-25	WINRED	24K	$-50
2022-10-19	RVFPAC	24K	$2,900
2022-10-19	PENNSYLVANIA PRO-LIFE FEDERATION PAC	24E	$205
2022-10-18	MEUSER FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2022-10-13	FAMILY PAC	24K	$500
2022-10-12	KEEP AMERICA ROLLING	24K	$1,000
2022-10-07	FINANCIAL SERVICES POLITICAL COMMITTEE	24K	$2,500
2022-10-06	GUY FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2022-09-30	BOG-PAC	24K	$250
2022-09-30	PENNSYLVANIA PRO-LIFE FEDERATION PAC	24E	$40
2022-09-27	CITZENS FOR AMERICAN ENERGY FEDERAL PAC	24E	$750
2022-09-23	NATIONAL FEDERATION OF INDEPENDENT BUSINESS	24F	$566
2022-09-21	NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY FEDERAL POLITICAL ACT…	24K	$1,000
2022-09-20	FRIENDS OF GLENN THOMPSON	24K	$2,000
2022-09-19	NATIONAL FEDERATION OF INDEPENDENT BUSINESS FED…	24K	$2,500
2022-09-13	NATIONAL SHOOTING SPORTS FOUNDATION, INC. POLIT…	24K	$1,000
2022-09-13	WINRED	24K	$-50
2022-09-13	WINRED	24K	$-50
2022-08-31	DEPENDABLE CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP PAC	24K	$1,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (35)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-11-05	WOMEN VOTE	contributed_to	$17,856	pas2
2022-11-05	WOMEN VOTE	opposes_independently	$17,857	fec_ies
2022-11-04	WOMEN VOTE	opposes_independently	$7,527	fec_ies
2022-11-04	WOMEN VOTE	contributed_to	$7,527	pas2
2022-11-03	WOMEN VOTE	contributed_to	$39,682	pas2
2022-11-03	WOMEN VOTE	opposes_independently	$39,683	fec_ies
2022-11-03	GARY PALMER FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2
2022-11-01	REJOICE PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-10-29	GREATER TOMORROW POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-25	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50	pas2
2022-10-19	PENNSYLVANIA PRO-LIFE FEDERATION PAC	contributed_to	$205	pas2
2022-10-19	RVFPAC	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2022-10-18	MEUSER FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-10-13	FAMILY PAC	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-10-12	KEEP AMERICA ROLLING	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-07	FINANCIAL SERVICES POLITICAL COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-10-06	GUY FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-09-30	PENNSYLVANIA PRO-LIFE FEDERATION PAC	contributed_to	$40	pas2
2022-09-30	BOG-PAC	contributed_to	$250	pas2
2022-09-27	CITZENS FOR AMERICAN ENERGY FEDERAL PAC	contributed_to	$750	pas2
2022-09-23	NATIONAL FEDERATION OF INDEPENDENT BUSINESS	contributed_to	$566	pas2
2022-09-21	NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-20	FRIENDS OF GLENN THOMPSON	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-09-19	NATIONAL FEDERATION OF INDEPENDENT BUSINESS FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-09-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50	pas2
2022-09-13	NATIONAL SHOOTING SPORTS FOUNDATION, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (NSSF PAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50	pas2
2022-08-31	DEPENDABLE CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-07-20	SCALISE FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-07-20	THE EYE OF THE TIGER POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-06-24	MAJORITY COMMITTEE PAC--MC PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-06-14	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2,900	pas2
2022-06-14	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2,900	pas2
2022-06-08	ERIE INDEMNITY COMPANY PAC - FEDERAL	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-04-29	PA-FIRST PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	FRIENDS OF MIKE DOYLE	—		candidate_committees

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