MOLESEVICH, MIKE

D · house

FEC candidate id: H2PA15131
Internal id: fcd68bab-ba56-4b83-a8ae-87606f276a07
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), PA-15. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	758,565
People	Median age	42
Income	Median household income	$65,472
Income	Per-capita income	$34,968
Income	In poverty	13.1%
Income	Unemployed	4.4%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.444
Race	White alone	91.8%
Race	Black alone	1.9%
Race	Asian alone	1.7%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	2.3%
Race	Two or more races	3.7%
Origin	Foreign-born	2.8%
Language	Speaks English only at home	93.9%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	1.3%
Education	High school or higher	67.9%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	25.3%
Education	Advanced degree	10.4%
Household	Family households	62.7%
Household	Avg household size	2.33
Household	Never married (15+)	32.5%
Housing	Median home value	$172,600
Housing	Median gross rent	$912
Housing	Single-family detached	73.3%
Housing	Built before 1940	6.2%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.3%
Housing	Vacant units	18.0%
Service	Veterans (18+)	7.5%
Health	With a disability	16.0%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	85.0%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	10.9%
Commute	Drove alone	74.5%
Commute	Public transit	0.9%
Commute	Worked from home	9.4%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2022	$49,953	$49,953	$0	$0	$17,312

Elections

2022 general house · PA-15 — lost_general

Committees

FRIENDS OF MIKE MOLESEVICH PA15 — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-10-18	UNION COUNTY DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEE	24K	$1,000
2022-10-18	UNION COUNTY DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEE	24K	$500
2022-10-16	UNION COUNTY DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEE	24E	$678
2022-10-05	RURAL FREEDOM NETWORK	24E	$54
2022-09-30	INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS…	24K	$3,000
2022-09-29	DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA	24E	$540
2022-09-27	DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA	24E	$277
2022-09-23	DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA	24E	$416
2022-09-23	DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA	24E	$433
2022-09-22	DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA	24E	$145
2022-09-13	RURAL FREEDOM NETWORK	24E	$54
2022-09-08	DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA	24E	$199
2022-09-05	DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA	24E	$44
2022-09-01	RURAL FREEDOM NETWORK	24E	$548
2022-08-30	DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA	24E	$69

Connected on the graph

Inbound (15)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-10-18	UNION COUNTY DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-18	UNION COUNTY DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-10-16	UNION COUNTY DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$678	pas2
2022-10-05	RURAL FREEDOM NETWORK	contributed_to	$54	pas2
2022-09-30	INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$3,000	pas2
2022-09-29	DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA	contributed_to	$540	pas2
2022-09-27	DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA	contributed_to	$277	pas2
2022-09-23	DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA	contributed_to	$416	pas2
2022-09-23	DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA	contributed_to	$433	pas2
2022-09-22	DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA	contributed_to	$145	pas2
2022-09-13	RURAL FREEDOM NETWORK	contributed_to	$54	pas2
2022-09-08	DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA	contributed_to	$199	pas2
2022-09-05	DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA	contributed_to	$44	pas2
2022-09-01	RURAL FREEDOM NETWORK	contributed_to	$548	pas2
2022-08-30	DEMOCRATIC JEWISH OUTREACH PA	contributed_to	$69	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	FRIENDS OF MIKE MOLESEVICH PA15	—		candidate_committees

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