SHAFFER, JEREMY

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2PA17160
Internal id: fb7c965e-190d-45d5-96ac-37dcf1868011
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), PA-17. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	754,615
People	Median age	43
Income	Median household income	$85,933
Income	Per-capita income	$52,072
Income	In poverty	8.1%
Income	Unemployed	4.3%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.469
Race	White alone	83.1%
Race	Black alone	7.0%
Race	Asian alone	3.3%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	2.6%
Race	Two or more races	5.4%
Origin	Foreign-born	5.1%
Language	Speaks English only at home	93.4%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	1.5%
Education	High school or higher	71.1%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	45.0%
Education	Advanced degree	17.8%
Household	Family households	60.6%
Household	Avg household size	2.26
Household	Never married (15+)	30.9%
Housing	Median home value	$239,800
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,107
Housing	Single-family detached	68.9%
Housing	Built before 1940	8.3%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	0.8%
Housing	Vacant units	7.9%
Service	Veterans (18+)	6.3%
Health	With a disability	13.3%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	91.4%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	6.8%
Commute	Drove alone	68.2%
Commute	Public transit	2.6%
Commute	Worked from home	19.8%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$0	$486	$3,018	$950,000	$0
2024	$5,019	$66,133	$3,504	$950,000	$0
2022	$2,786,044	$2,721,427	$64,617	$1,000,000	$1,114,139

Elections

2022 general house · PA-17 — lost_general

Committees

FRIENDS OF JEREMY SHAFFER — principal · type H
SHAFFER FOR PA-17 REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FUND 2022 — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$592,803	$7,591,397	126

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,700	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$18,897	CANVASSING
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,037	CANVASSING
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$7,740	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$9,306	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,875	CANVASSING
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$2,592	CANVASSING
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$2,500	CANVASSING
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$5,184	CANVASSING
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$3,500	CANVASSING
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$3,750	CANVASSING
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,700	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$7,703	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$5,184	CANVASSING
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$9,306	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$66,000	DIGITAL AD PLACEMENT
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$9,306	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$700	DIGITAL AD PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$9,306	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,856	DOORHANGER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$2,500	CANVASSING
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$7,300	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$7,703	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$700	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$20,000	MEDIA PLACEMENT

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	24E	$300
—	VOTEVETS	24A	$250,000
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	24A	$13,888
2022-12-19	CENTER FOR ESSENTIAL INFORMATION	24A	$16,131
2022-12-14	ENGINEERING THE FUTURE PAC	24K	$2,900
2022-12-14	ENGINEERING THE FUTURE PAC	24K	$2,900
2022-12-10	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-12-05	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-11-29	WINRED	24K	$-500
2022-11-18	WINRED	24K	$-100
2022-11-11	DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC.	24E	$2
2022-11-09	WINRED	24K	$-750
2022-11-08	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	24E	$1,036
2022-11-04	PATRIOT FUND	24K	$1,000
2022-11-04	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	24E	$7,703
2022-11-04	DCCC	24A	$40,000
2022-11-04	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	24E	$9,305
2022-11-04	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	24E	$7,703
2022-11-03	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	24E	$700
2022-11-03	GOA VICTORY FUND	24E	$1,200
2022-11-03	MISSION FIRST PEOPLE ALWAYS PAC	24K	$2,000
2022-11-03	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	24E	$1,700
2022-11-03	SENATE EAGLE PAC	24K	$5,000
2022-11-03	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-11-03	GOA VICTORY FUND	24E	$9,281

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	contributed_to	$13,888	pas2
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	contributed_to	$300	pas2
—	VOTEVETS	contributed_to	$250,000	pas2
—	VOTEVETS	opposes_independently	$250,000	fec_ies
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	opposes_independently	$13,889	fec_ies
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	opposes_independently	$13,889	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$125,425	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$17,533	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$37,867	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$26,021	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$54,636	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$14,150	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$350,625	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$10,603	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$27,505	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$1,540	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$84,335	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$397,900	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$30,800	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$17,772	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$65,901	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$406,749	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$25,871	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$27,538	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$84,335	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$14,150	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$36,142	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$82,375	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$15,346	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$324,375	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$27,538	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$813,777	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$884,333	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$25,871	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$82,375	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$26,021	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$388,025	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,700	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$2,962	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,250	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$7,703	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$700	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$100	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,037	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,700	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$12,500	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$7,740	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$2,370	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,250	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$700	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$2,222	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$59,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$7,703	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$9,306	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$9,306	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$3,070	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$7,300	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,250	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$2,962	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$9,306	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$3,500	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$2,500	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$9,306	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$9,306	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$3,838	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$24,998	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$3,554	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$2,500	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$9,306	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$2,552	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$30,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$4,244	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$20,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,367	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$18,897	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$9,306	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$9,306	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$5,184	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,875	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$3,750	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$5,184	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,856	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$700	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$2,500	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$66,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$2,592	fec_ies
2022-12-19	CENTER FOR ESSENTIAL INFORMATION	contributed_to	$16,131	pas2
2022-12-14	ENGINEERING THE FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2022-12-14	ENGINEERING THE FUTURE PAC	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2022-12-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-12-05	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-11-29	WINRED	contributed_to	$-500	pas2
2022-11-18	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100	pas2
2022-11-11	DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC.	contributed_to	$2	pas2
2022-11-09	WINRED	contributed_to	$-750	pas2
2022-11-08	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	contributed_to	$1,036	pas2
2022-11-04	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	contributed_to	$9,305	pas2

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	FRIENDS OF JEREMY SHAFFER	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	SHAFFER FOR PA-17 REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FUND 2022	—		candidate_committees

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