MURPHY, TIMOTHY
R Β· house Β· bioguide M001151
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- FEC candidate id
H2PA18143- Internal id
2db93a0c-b338-4849-aa8e-45bdbeb02d2b- Status
- incumbent
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $1,499,654 | $1,129,960 | $1,188,615 | $0 | $505,997 |
| 2014 | $1,854,010 | $1,156,372 | $818,921 | $0 | $698,679 |
| 2012 | $2,386,295 | $2,649,102 | $121,283 | $0 | $1,117,254 |
| 2010 | $1,841,766 | $1,493,262 | $384,090 | $0 | $767,940 |
| 2008 | $1,825,280 | $2,073,254 | $35,586 | $0 | $842,708 |
| 2006 | $1,609,251 | $1,482,473 | $283,560 | $0 | $780,017 |
| 2004 | $1,229,330 | $1,103,316 | $156,781 | $0 | $619,988 |
| 2002 | $1,117,916 | $958,041 | $30,768 | $0 | $508,245 |
Elections
- 2002 general house Β· PA-18 β won
- 2004 general house Β· PA-18 β won
- 2006 general house Β· PA-18 β won
- 2008 general house Β· PA-18 β won
- 2010 general house Β· PA-18 β won
- 2012 general house Β· PA-18 β won
- 2014 general house Β· PA-18 β won
- 2016 general house Β· PA-18 β won
- 2018 general house Β· PA-18 β lost_general
Committees
- 2005 JOINT CANDIDATE COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type H
- HEALTH FIRST COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- MAJORITY 2006 β joint_fundraising Β· type H
- REDWINGMCPAC β principal Β· type Q
- REDWINGMCPAC β independent Β· type Q
Recent votes
No votes on file.
Sponsored & cosponsored bills
No sponsorships on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 99.0%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| incumbent | +78.0% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (5)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | independent_committee_of | REDWINGMCPAC | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | HEALTH FIRST COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | MAJORITY 2006 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | 2005 JOINT CANDIDATE COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | REDWINGMCPAC | β | candidate_committees |