KILKER, PAUL VINCENT
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H2PA19026- Internal id
5dd6c043-d75d-4a84-bbe5-20792a9b6cb8- Status
- challenger
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | $5,136 | $8,891 | $0 | $140,332 | $0 |
| 1998 | $3,755 | $0 | $3,755 | $149,274 | $3,755 |
| 1996 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $149,274 | $0 |
| 1994 | $25 | $1,198 | $0 | $149,274 | $0 |
| 1992 | $251,159 | $249,984 | $1,173 | $150,074 | $38,089 |
Elections
- 1992 general house Β· PA-19 β lost_general
Committees
- KILKER FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | KILKER FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |