ORTAGUS, MORGAN
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H2TN05362- Internal id
46f6d200-d264-4469-803f-dc080e74af08- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), TN-05. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 796,623 |
| People | Median age | 38 |
| Income | Median household income | $93,904 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $53,402 |
| Income | In poverty | 9.2% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.6% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.482 |
| Race | White alone | 70.8% |
| Race | Black alone | 12.2% |
| Race | Asian alone | 4.0% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 10.5% |
| Race | Two or more races | 8.9% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 12.2% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 84.5% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 7.6% |
| Education | High school or higher | 68.8% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 47.0% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 17.8% |
| Household | Family households | 66.2% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.50 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 29.8% |
| Housing | Median home value | $457,700 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,622 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 65.1% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 2.0% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.3% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 6.8% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 5.6% |
| Health | With a disability | 9.9% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 93.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 4.4% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 70.3% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.5% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 20.1% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0 | $500 | $6,688 | $0 | $0 |
| 2024 | $0 | $1,323 | $7,188 | $0 | $0 |
| 2022 | $650,167 | $641,656 | $8,511 | $0 | $566,760 |
Elections
- 2022 general house Β· TN-5 β lost_general
Committees
- TEAM MORGAN ORTAGUS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $101,869 | $0 | 2 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-06 | TENNESSEE CONSERVATIVES PAC | support | $1,869 | PRODUCTION COST: RADIO AD |
| 2022-04-06 | TENNESSEE CONSERVATIVES PAC | support | $100,000 | PLACED MEDIA: RADIO |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-02 | WINRED | 24K | $-50 |
| 2022-10-02 | WINRED | 24K | $-50 |
| 2022-07-18 | WINRED | 24K | $-7 |
| 2022-07-15 | WINRED | 24K | $-2,900 |
| 2022-07-13 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-07-11 | WINRED | 24K | $-1 |
| 2022-07-11 | WINRED | 24K | $-1 |
| 2022-06-23 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-06-22 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-06-22 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-06-22 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-06-22 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-06-20 | E-PAC | 24K | $-5,000 |
| 2022-06-17 | FUND FOR AMERICA'S FUTURE | 24K | $-5,000 |
| 2022-06-01 | WINRED | 24K | $-4 |
| 2022-06-01 | WINRED | 24K | $-20 |
| 2022-06-01 | WINRED | 24K | $-5 |
| 2022-06-01 | WINRED | 24K | $-17 |
| 2022-05-23 | WINRED | 24K | $-1,000 |
| 2022-05-18 | WINRED | 24K | $-5 |
| 2022-05-11 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-05-11 | WINRED | 24K | $-1,000 |
| 2022-05-11 | WINRED | 24K | $-5,800 |
| 2022-05-08 | WINRED | 24K | $-10 |
| 2022-05-07 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (100)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-02 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-02 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-18 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-7 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-13 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-23 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-22 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-22 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-22 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-22 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-20 | E-PAC | contributed_to | $-5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-17 | AMERICA'S FUTURE | contributed_to | $-5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-01 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-20 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-01 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-17 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-01 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-01 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-4 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-23 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-18 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-08 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-07 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-29 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-27 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-250 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-27 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-26 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-25 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-9 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-24 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-21 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-250 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-20 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-7 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-19 | RIGHTNOW WOMEN PAC | contributed_to | $1,500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-19 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-8 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-19 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-18 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-18 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-18 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-18 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-18 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-17 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-17 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-17 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-17 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-17 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-80 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-80 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-6 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-12 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-4 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-12 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-4 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-12 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-4 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-6 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-08 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-08 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-08 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-08 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-06 | TENNESSEE CONSERVATIVES PAC | supports_independently | $1,869 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-06 | TENNESSEE CONSERVATIVES PAC | supports_independently | $100,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-06 | TENNESSEE CONSERVATIVES PAC | contributed_to | $1,869 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-06 | TENNESSEE CONSERVATIVES PAC | contributed_to | $100,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-04 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-04 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-03 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-03 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-02 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-03-31 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-03-28 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | TEAM MORGAN ORTAGUS | β | candidate_committees |