GILLESPIE, PATRICK DAVID
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H2TX33248- Internal id
2a1db0ff-ec2d-4c61-9dc5-163d2e7e800b- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), TX-33. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 777,278 |
| People | Median age | 32 |
| Income | Median household income | $64,457 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $29,691 |
| Income | In poverty | 17.4% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.4% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.437 |
| Race | White alone | 23.5% |
| Race | Black alone | 18.2% |
| Race | Asian alone | 8.6% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 58.3% |
| Race | Two or more races | 25.9% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 33.6% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 40.5% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 49.1% |
| Education | High school or higher | 49.4% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 23.6% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 8.7% |
| Household | Family households | 66.0% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.88 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 41.6% |
| Housing | Median home value | $231,000 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,425 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 52.5% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 6.7% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 9.7% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 8.4% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 3.0% |
| Health | With a disability | 10.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 89.1% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 8.3% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 68.8% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.0% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 11.8% |
Elections
- 2022 general house Β· TX-33 β lost_general
- 2024 general house Β· TX-33 β lost_general
- 2026 general house Β· TX-33 β running
Committees
No committees on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.