MORRISSEY, JOSEPH DEE

D · house

FEC candidate id: H2VA04151
Internal id: d776ec25-b5d0-4e67-a329-05f7a014b650
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), VA-04. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	796,326
People	Median age	37
Income	Median household income	$70,751
Income	Per-capita income	$39,642
Income	In poverty	13.5%
Income	Unemployed	5.4%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.455
Race	White alone	42.8%
Race	Black alone	41.5%
Race	Asian alone	2.1%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	10.4%
Race	Two or more races	7.8%
Origin	Foreign-born	8.1%
Language	Speaks English only at home	88.1%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	8.0%
Education	High school or higher	61.5%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	33.0%
Education	Advanced degree	12.6%
Household	Family households	57.4%
Household	Avg household size	2.34
Household	Never married (15+)	41.8%
Housing	Median home value	$285,900
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,354
Housing	Single-family detached	62.4%
Housing	Built before 1940	6.0%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.0%
Housing	Vacant units	8.3%
Service	Veterans (18+)	8.1%
Health	With a disability	14.9%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	89.0%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	7.7%
Commute	Drove alone	70.4%
Commute	Public transit	1.5%
Commute	Worked from home	15.5%

Elections

2022 general house · VA-4 — running

Committees

JOE MORRISSEY FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$20,425	$10,000	3

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	support	$425	Estimated Cost for Staff Time for Voter Communications
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	support	$20,000	Estimated Cost for Production & Distribution of Digital Ads
2022-12-17	WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	oppose	$10,000	Estimate of digital ads

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-12-30	FREE AND FAIR DEMOCRACY PAC	24A	$1,843
2022-12-30	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	24A	$20,000
2022-12-16	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	24A	$425
2022-12-16	WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	24E	$10,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (7)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	supports_independently	$425	fec_ies
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	supports_independently	$20,000	fec_ies
2022-12-30	FREE AND FAIR DEMOCRACY PAC	contributed_to	$1,843	pas2
2022-12-30	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	contributed_to	$20,000	pas2
2022-12-17	WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	opposes_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2022-12-16	WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	contributed_to	$10,000	pas2
2022-12-16	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	contributed_to	$425	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	JOE MORRISSEY FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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