CLANCY, MIKE

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2VA11206
Internal id: aa0e6f36-d062-42a9-a733-214d332aba4e
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), VA-10. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	802,125
People	Median age	38
Income	Median household income	$162,359
Income	Per-capita income	$65,165
Income	In poverty	5.0%
Income	Unemployed	3.5%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.400
Race	White alone	55.5%
Race	Black alone	8.7%
Race	Asian alone	15.5%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	18.9%
Race	Two or more races	14.0%
Origin	Foreign-born	25.0%
Language	Speaks English only at home	66.9%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	14.7%
Education	High school or higher	72.1%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	55.9%
Education	Advanced degree	24.0%
Household	Family households	77.6%
Household	Avg household size	3.02
Household	Never married (15+)	29.6%
Housing	Median home value	$674,500
Housing	Median gross rent	$2,203
Housing	Single-family detached	58.5%
Housing	Built before 1940	0.6%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.8%
Housing	Vacant units	3.4%
Service	Veterans (18+)	8.3%
Health	With a disability	7.8%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	96.0%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	2.1%
Commute	Drove alone	61.9%
Commute	Public transit	1.6%
Commute	Worked from home	26.0%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$0	$1,122	$0	$0	$0
2024	$1,162,673	$1,161,551	$1,122	$675,000	$454,000
2022	$399,376	$399,376	$0	$0	$163,062

Elections

2022 general house · VA-10 — lost_general
2024 general house · VA-10 — lost_general

Committees

CLANCY FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
MIKE CLANCY FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-07-25	WINRED	24K	$-2,900
2022-07-22	WINRED	24K	$-250
2022-07-22	WINRED	24K	$-100
2022-07-22	WINRED	24K	$-200
2022-04-26	CLANCY FOR CONGRESS	24K	$634
2022-04-26	CLANCY FOR CONGRESS	24K	$5,000
2022-04-26	CLANCY FOR CONGRESS	24K	$88
2022-03-29	WINRED	24K	$-2,900
2022-03-16	WINRED	24K	$-5
2022-01-06	ARNOLD & PORTER KAYE SCHOLER LLP (APKS) PARTNER…	24K	$2,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (10)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-07-25	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2,900	pas2
2022-07-22	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100	pas2
2022-07-22	WINRED	contributed_to	$-200	pas2
2022-07-22	WINRED	contributed_to	$-250	pas2
2022-04-26	CLANCY FOR CONGRESS*	contributed_to	$634	pas2
2022-04-26	CLANCY FOR CONGRESS*	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-04-26	CLANCY FOR CONGRESS*	contributed_to	$88	pas2
2022-03-29	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2,900	pas2
2022-03-16	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-01-06	ARNOLD & PORTER KAYE SCHOLER LLP (APKS) PARTNERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	MIKE CLANCY FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	CLANCY FOR CONGRESS*	—		candidate_committees

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