LARKIN, MATT MR

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2WA08182
Internal id: 4ed4514d-59ad-42c9-82c2-fccb1d31a943
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), WA-08. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	781,768
People	Median age	39
Income	Median household income	$127,442
Income	Per-capita income	$61,542
Income	In poverty	6.2%
Income	Unemployed	4.1%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.450
Race	White alone	69.5%
Race	Black alone	2.0%
Race	Asian alone	11.1%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	11.4%
Race	Two or more races	11.5%
Origin	Foreign-born	15.3%
Language	Speaks English only at home	80.5%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	6.7%
Education	High school or higher	63.3%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	42.0%
Education	Advanced degree	15.9%
Household	Family households	74.8%
Household	Avg household size	2.77
Household	Never married (15+)	26.4%
Housing	Median home value	$695,500
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,924
Housing	Single-family detached	77.0%
Housing	Built before 1940	1.8%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.8%
Housing	Vacant units	7.8%
Service	Veterans (18+)	7.5%
Health	With a disability	11.0%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	94.9%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	3.2%
Commute	Drove alone	65.5%
Commute	Public transit	1.4%
Commute	Worked from home	21.6%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$0	$0	$2,668	$1,158,500	$0
2024	$4,084	$5,354	$2,668	$1,158,500	$-1
2022	$2,810,553	$2,806,614	$3,939	$1,158,500	$1,166,668

Elections

2022 general house · WA-8 — lost_general

Committees

LARKIN FOR WA-08 — principal · type H
MATT LARKIN FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$2,983	$7,413,180	72

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	HMP	oppose	$75,231	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$12,150	Digital Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$12,250	Digital Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$15,925	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$27,168	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$15,158	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$320,050	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$40,269	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$102,399	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$586,470	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$650	Digital Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$32,891	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$661,725	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	oppose	$75,881	Ad Buy (Estimate)
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	oppose	$7,457	Ad Production (Estimate)
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	oppose	$1,689	Research Consulting (Estimate)
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	oppose	$11,695	Ad Production (Estimate)
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	oppose	$506	Research Consulting (Estimate)
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	oppose	$312,000	Ad Buy (Estimate)
—	HMP	oppose	$16,224	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$32,891	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$32,005	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$650	Digital Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$107,833	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$280,500	Television Advertising - Estimate

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, A…	24A	$53
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, A…	24A	$29
—	HMP	24A	$40,268
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	24A	$757
—	HMP	24A	$280,500
—	HMP	24A	$650
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, A…	24A	$48
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, A…	24A	$5
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, A…	24A	$136
—	HMP	24A	$32,890
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, A…	24A	$59
2022-12-10	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-12-05	PACNW	24K	$2,900
2022-12-05	PACNW	24K	$2,900
2022-11-08	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	24N	$3,624
2022-11-08	WINRED	24K	$-500
2022-11-07	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, A…	24A	$2,375
2022-11-04	WINRED	24K	$-366
2022-11-04	DCCC	24A	$50,000
2022-11-03	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-11-03	GOA VICTORY FUND	24E	$5,000
2022-11-03	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, A…	24A	$7,689
2022-11-03	GARY PALMER FOR CONGRESS	24K	$1,500
2022-11-03	HMP	24A	$30,000
2022-11-03	GOA VICTORY FUND	24E	$1,200

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	HMP	contributed_to	$650	pas2
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KY	contributed_to	$59	pas2
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KY	contributed_to	$29	pas2
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KY	contributed_to	$5	pas2
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KY	contributed_to	$48	pas2
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$757	pas2
—	HMP	contributed_to	$280,500	pas2
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KY	contributed_to	$53	pas2
—	HMP	contributed_to	$40,268	pas2
—	HMP	contributed_to	$32,890	pas2
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KY	contributed_to	$136	pas2
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KY	opposes_independently	$2,500	fec_ies
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KY	opposes_independently	$137	fec_ies
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KY	opposes_independently	$7,689	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$758	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$15,158	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$661,725	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$320,050	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$40,269	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$107,833	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$102,399	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$16,224	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$11,978	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$30,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$280,500	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$15,925	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$32,891	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$12,250	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$12,150	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$1,017,673	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$32,891	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$280,500	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$30,235	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$75,231	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$650	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$32,602	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$60,185	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$27,168	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$32,005	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$586,470	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$650	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$3,650	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$8,913	fec_ies
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	opposes_independently	$1,689	fec_ies
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	opposes_independently	$7,457	fec_ies
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	opposes_independently	$75,881	fec_ies
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	opposes_independently	$312,000	fec_ies
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	opposes_independently	$506	fec_ies
—	EDF ACTION VOTES	opposes_independently	$11,695	fec_ies
2022-12-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-12-05	PACNW	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2022-12-05	PACNW	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2022-11-08	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	contributed_to	$3,624	pas2
2022-11-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-500	pas2
2022-11-07	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KY	contributed_to	$2,375	pas2
2022-11-04	DCCC	contributed_to	$50,000	pas2
2022-11-04	DCCC	opposes_independently	$50,000	fec_ies
2022-11-04	WINRED	contributed_to	$-366	pas2
2022-11-03	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-11-03	GOA VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$1,200	pas2
2022-11-03	GOA VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$2,707	pas2
2022-11-03	HMP	contributed_to	$30,000	pas2
2022-11-03	GARY PALMER FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2
2022-11-03	GOA VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-11-03	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KY	contributed_to	$7,689	pas2
2022-11-02	NEVER SURRENDER PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-11-01	HMP	contributed_to	$1,017,673	pas2
2022-11-01	HMP	contributed_to	$32,602	pas2
2022-11-01	HMP	contributed_to	$12,250	pas2
2022-11-01	CLF	contributed_to	$2,350	pas2
2022-10-31	NATIONAL CONSERVATIVE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-31	SUSAN B. ANTHONY LIST. INC. CANDIDATE FUND (DBA SUSAN B. ANTHONY PRO-LIFE AMERICA CANDIDATE FUND)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-31	TEXAS REPUBLICANS UNITED POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (TRU PAC)	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2
2022-10-31	TKJ PAC	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2022-10-29	CLF	contributed_to	$47,500	pas2
2022-10-29	GOA VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$132	pas2
2022-10-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-10-28	CLF	contributed_to	$322,072	pas2
2022-10-28	EDF ACTION VOTES	contributed_to	$11,496	pas2
2022-10-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-10-28	GIVING US SECURITY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-28	EDF ACTION VOTES	contributed_to	$75,881	pas2
2022-10-28	EDF ACTION VOTES	contributed_to	$506	pas2
2022-10-27	DCCC	contributed_to	$50,000	pas2
2022-10-27	TOGETHER FOR PROGRESS PAC	contributed_to	$7,400	pas2
2022-10-27	DCCC	opposes_independently	$50,000	fec_ies
2022-10-27	CONCERNED AMERICANS FOR FREEDOM & OPPORTUNITY PAC (CAFO PAC)	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-10-27	TOGETHER FOR PROGRESS PAC	opposes_independently	$7,400	fec_ies
2022-10-27	WINRED	contributed_to	$-3	pas2
2022-10-26	HMP	contributed_to	$16,223	pas2
2022-10-26	TOGETHER FOR PROGRESS PAC	contributed_to	$76,000	pas2
2022-10-26	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-10-26	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-10-26	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-26	HMP	contributed_to	$320,050	pas2
2022-10-26	TOGETHER FOR PROGRESS PAC	opposes_independently	$76,000	fec_ies
2022-10-25	HMP	contributed_to	$661,725	pas2
2022-10-25	BIG IDEAS CREATE EXCELLENCE PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-10-25	DCCC	opposes_independently	$9,000	fec_ies
2022-10-25	REPUBLICANS UNITED TO DEFEND YOU PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	MATT LARKIN FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	LARKIN FOR WA-08	—		candidate_committees

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