DUNN, REAGAN B

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2WA08208
Internal id: 090da20e-41f6-43c9-bdd3-e27b27ec7b87
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), WA-08. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	781,768
People	Median age	39
Income	Median household income	$127,442
Income	Per-capita income	$61,542
Income	In poverty	6.2%
Income	Unemployed	4.1%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.450
Race	White alone	69.5%
Race	Black alone	2.0%
Race	Asian alone	11.1%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	11.4%
Race	Two or more races	11.5%
Origin	Foreign-born	15.3%
Language	Speaks English only at home	80.5%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	6.7%
Education	High school or higher	63.3%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	42.0%
Education	Advanced degree	15.9%
Household	Family households	74.8%
Household	Avg household size	2.77
Household	Never married (15+)	26.4%
Housing	Median home value	$695,500
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,924
Housing	Single-family detached	77.0%
Housing	Built before 1940	1.8%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.8%
Housing	Vacant units	7.8%
Service	Veterans (18+)	7.5%
Health	With a disability	11.0%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	94.9%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	3.2%
Commute	Drove alone	65.5%
Commute	Public transit	1.4%
Commute	Worked from home	21.6%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2022	$884,607	$884,607	$0	$0	$843,607

Elections

2022 general house · WA-8 — lost_general

Committees

REAGAN DUNN FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$0	$87,123	6

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	LEAD THE WAY PAC	oppose	$7,285	Text Messages
—	LEAD THE WAY PAC	oppose	$23,816	Direct Mail
2022-07-25	LEAD THE WAY PAC	oppose	$11,023	Television Advertising
2022-07-19	LEAD THE WAY PAC	oppose	$7,500	Television Advertising
2022-07-11	LEAD THE WAY PAC	oppose	$15,000	Television Advertising
2022-07-06	LEAD THE WAY PAC	oppose	$22,500	Digital Advertising

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
—	LEAD THE WAY PAC	24A	$7,284
2022-12-31	RELY ON YOUR BELIEFS FUND	24K	$-1,000
2022-09-28	WINRED	24K	$-50
2022-09-21	JAKE ELLZEY FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2022-08-05	LEAD THE WAY PAC	24A	$23,815
2022-07-25	LEAD THE WAY PAC	24A	$11,022
2022-07-25	NATIONAL STONE, SAND & GRAVEL ASSOCIATION ROCKP…	24K	$1,000
2022-07-19	LEAD THE WAY PAC	24A	$7,500
2022-07-13	WINRED	24K	$-5
2022-07-11	LEAD THE WAY PAC	24A	$15,000
2022-07-07	INTERNATIONAL UNION OF OPERATING ENGINEERS LOCA…	24K	$5,000
2022-07-06	LEAD THE WAY PAC	24A	$22,500
2022-06-28	BUILD POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONA…	24K	$5,000
2022-06-27	GW PAC	24K	$2,000
2022-06-24	EUREKA POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$2,500
2022-06-01	REPUBLICAN MAINSTREET PARTNERSHIP PAC	24K	$5,000
2022-05-19	CONSERVATIVE OPPORTUNITY LEADERSHIP AND ENTERPR…	24K	$2,000
2022-05-19	FUSE WASHINGTON	24A	$210
2022-05-11	SSA MARINE INC. GOOD GOVERNMENT FUND	24K	$1,000
2022-05-01	WINRED	24K	$-20
2022-04-28	FIRST IN FREEDOM PAC	24K	$2,500
2022-04-15	WINRED	24K	$-25
2022-03-31	NATIONAL ELECTRICAL CONTRACTORS ASSOCIATION POL…	24K	$5,000
2022-03-30	RELY ON YOUR BELIEFS FUND	24K	$1,000
2022-03-23	WINRED	24K	$-400

Connected on the graph

Inbound (42)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	LEAD THE WAY PAC	contributed_to	$7,284	pas2
—	LEAD THE WAY PAC	opposes_independently	$23,816	fec_ies
—	LEAD THE WAY PAC	opposes_independently	$7,285	fec_ies
2022-12-31	RELY ON YOUR BELIEFS FUND	contributed_to	$-1,000	pas2
2022-09-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50	pas2
2022-09-21	JAKE ELLZEY FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-08-05	LEAD THE WAY PAC	contributed_to	$23,815	pas2
2022-07-25	LEAD THE WAY PAC	contributed_to	$11,022	pas2
2022-07-25	NATIONAL STONE, SAND & GRAVEL ASSOCIATION ROCKPAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-07-25	LEAD THE WAY PAC	opposes_independently	$11,023	fec_ies
2022-07-19	LEAD THE WAY PAC	contributed_to	$7,500	pas2
2022-07-19	LEAD THE WAY PAC	opposes_independently	$7,500	fec_ies
2022-07-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-07-11	LEAD THE WAY PAC	opposes_independently	$15,000	fec_ies
2022-07-11	LEAD THE WAY PAC	contributed_to	$15,000	pas2
2022-07-07	INTERNATIONAL UNION OF OPERATING ENGINEERS LOCAL #302 VOLUNTARY POLITICAL FUND	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-07-06	LEAD THE WAY PAC	opposes_independently	$22,500	fec_ies
2022-07-06	LEAD THE WAY PAC	contributed_to	$22,500	pas2
2022-06-28	BUILD POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS (BUILDPAC)	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-06-27	GW PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-06-24	EUREKA POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-06-01	REPUBLICAN MAINSTREET PARTNERSHIP PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-05-19	CONSERVATIVE OPPORTUNITY LEADERSHIP AND ENTERPRISE PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-05-19	FUSE WASHINGTON	contributed_to	$210	pas2
2022-05-11	SSA MARINE INC. GOOD GOVERNMENT FUND	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-05-01	WINRED	contributed_to	$-20	pas2
2022-04-28	FIRST IN FREEDOM PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-04-15	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-03-31	NATIONAL ELECTRICAL CONTRACTORS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-03-30	RELY ON YOUR BELIEFS FUND	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-23	WINRED	contributed_to	$-400	pas2
2022-03-19	SAFARI CLUB INTERNATIONAL PAC (SCI-PAC)	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-03-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-400	pas2
2022-03-04	WINRED	contributed_to	$-35	pas2
2022-02-24	MAINTAINING ALL REPUBLICANS IN OFFICE PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-02-15	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50	pas2
2022-02-14	BUILDING LEADERSHIP AND INSPIRING NEW ENTERPRISE PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-01-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5,800	pas2
2021-12-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2,500	pas2
2021-12-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5,800	pas2
2021-12-07	AUTOMOTIVE FREE INTERNATIONAL TRADE PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-11-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	REAGAN DUNN FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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