O'CALLAGHAN, CONOR
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H4AZ01244- Internal id
1b8f8a7e-4b36-4700-aa73-a719570e8e61- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), AZ-01. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 804,578 |
| People | Median age | 44 |
| Income | Median household income | $99,999 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $69,449 |
| Income | In poverty | 8.7% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.0% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.510 |
| Race | White alone | 71.9% |
| Race | Black alone | 3.7% |
| Race | Asian alone | 4.5% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 17.3% |
| Race | Two or more races | 13.4% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 12.5% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 82.5% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 10.2% |
| Education | High school or higher | 67.8% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 52.5% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 20.9% |
| Household | Family households | 57.8% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.21 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 32.3% |
| Housing | Median home value | $642,100 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,780 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 56.6% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 0.8% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.4% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 10.9% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 5.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 11.1% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 94.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 3.8% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 63.1% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.9% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 26.3% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1,008,211 | $0 |
| 2024 | $2,208,809 | $2,077,400 | $0 | $1,008,211 | $1,082,683 |
Elections
- 2024 general house Β· AZ-1 β lost_general
Committees
- CONOR FOR AZ β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $77,995 | $0 | 10 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-18 | AZ PROGRESSIVE FUTURE | support | $2,726 | Text Messages |
| 2024-07-18 | AZ PROGRESSIVE FUTURE | support | $2,726 | Text Messages |
| 2024-07-14 | AZ PROGRESSIVE FUTURE | support | $5,000 | Text Messages |
| 2024-07-14 | AZ PROGRESSIVE FUTURE | support | $5,000 | Text Messages |
| 2024-07-12 | AZ PROGRESSIVE FUTURE | support | $10,000 | Digital Ad |
| 2024-07-12 | AZ PROGRESSIVE FUTURE | support | $10,000 | Digital Ad |
| 2024-07-11 | AZ PROGRESSIVE FUTURE | support | $5,000 | Text Messages |
| 2024-07-11 | AZ PROGRESSIVE FUTURE | support | $5,000 | Text Messages |
| 2024-07-05 | AZ PROGRESSIVE FUTURE | support | $16,271 | Mailer |
| 2024-07-05 | AZ PROGRESSIVE FUTURE | support | $16,271 | Mailer |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (10)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-18 | AZ PROGRESSIVE FUTURE | supports_independently | $2,726 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-18 | AZ PROGRESSIVE FUTURE | supports_independently | $2,726 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-14 | AZ PROGRESSIVE FUTURE | supports_independently | $5,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-14 | AZ PROGRESSIVE FUTURE | supports_independently | $5,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-12 | AZ PROGRESSIVE FUTURE | supports_independently | $10,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-12 | AZ PROGRESSIVE FUTURE | supports_independently | $10,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-11 | AZ PROGRESSIVE FUTURE | supports_independently | $5,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-11 | AZ PROGRESSIVE FUTURE | supports_independently | $5,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-05 | AZ PROGRESSIVE FUTURE | supports_independently | $16,271 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-05 | AZ PROGRESSIVE FUTURE | supports_independently | $16,271 | fec_ies |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | CONOR FOR AZ | β | candidate_committees |